AGA: Americans will bet $4.7 billion on Super Bowl

[The Buzz]

It's Super Bowl Week here in the U.S. and that means it's time for the mainstream media to chime in about the amount of money that will be bet illegally on Sunday.

Here's a quote from ESPN.com:

The federal prohibition on sports betting turns 25 this year, but Americans aren't expected to have any trouble getting action on Super Bowl LI. Americans will stake an estimated $4.7 billion on Sunday's game between New England and underdog Atlanta, according to numbers released Tuesday by the American Gaming Association. It is the equivalent of the estimated sales by online retailer Amazon from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday in 2016.

Where do you think of these numbers? Are they accurate? Is the process they use to determine that number flawed?

Read more here: http://www.espn.co.uk/chalk/story/_/...egally-wagered

[TheGooner]

The story says ...

"The AGA estimates that 97 percent of the money wagered on the Super Bowl in the U.S. will be done so illegally, in an underground sports betting market that has thrived since the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was enacted in 1992.

The estimates are extrapolated primarily from the wagering on the Super Bowl in Nevada, which is tracked by the state's gaming control board, and are difficult to verify, with so much of the betting taking place in an unregulated market."

That's a long winded way of saying we guessed that the off-shore action was 32x the legal sports betting market- and NO we can't back that up.

[MrDeposit]

TheGooner, You saved me some time. Thanks

[sweetbet]

I wonder how much tax revenue the US is missing out on because of its stance against online wagering.

[Miles_Videoslots]

Thats crazy money ..

I have only heard and read about how much is spent on having adverts etc at Half Time and as someone who isn't a big American Football Fan nor has a clue as to how the game is played it amazes me to see the figures banded about regarding the event .. TV Watchers , Money Gambled etc . I would one day love to go to a Final as a sports lover that could be a great experience.

Have any of you had that luck

[DanHorvat]

In the UK alone, there's £1bn worth of bets placed on the World Cup (the entire 30-day tournament). But very few people go big with football bets, most bets are peanuts, in the sub-£1000 range. I guess.

In the US, betting is different. It's about beating the spread, and betting big.

In Nevada, there's roughly $2.5m bets placed on an NFL game in average. That's around $650m for the entire season. I guess it's safe to say the more popular games draw $5m to $10m each.

$132m was bet on last Superbowl in Nevada.

Not sure what percentage of people are willing to risk prosecution by placing a bet illegally, and how easy it is to find a bookie, but they had a long time to figure out how to do it without getting caught, and the numbers are definitely increasing every year. Whoever placed a bet on Superbowl 50 is placing a bet on Superbowl 51. And since it's the season finale, and you're risking getting caught anyway, I don't see people calling their bookie to place $1k. You'd just be wasting his precious time.

I don't think the numbers are too crazy. You only need 150,000 people to wager $20,000 and you're already at $3bn. Of course AGA have their own agenda so they inflated the numbers, but not by too much.

I guess.

P.S. According to Pinnacle, 80% of bets are on Patriots -3. The line will move towards -3.5 or even -4 as we get closer to Sunday.

[iBet Media]

Thats crazy money ..

I have only heard and read about how much is spent on having adverts etc at Half Time and as someone who isn't a big American Football Fan nor has a clue as to how the game is played it amazes me to see the figures banded about regarding the event .. TV Watchers , Money Gambled etc . I would one day love to go to a Final as a sports lover that could be a great experience.

Have any of you had that luck

Friend of mine has just decided to go... $3,000 was the cheapest ticket he could find. Alright for some!

[wonderpunter]

If you add in all the agents, That figure is achievable I have seen first hand a sportsbook light up on Superbowl and the atmosphere is insane it's also a ton of non stop live betting along the way.. I'm looking forward to this one

[Pokerface]

$4.7 billion is amazing, did not realize it was that huge. And to think that 97% is illegal and with lost tax revenues the government would be stepping in more, at least to get their share.

[TheGooner]

$4.7 billion is amazing, did not realize it was that huge. And to think that 97% is illegal and with lost tax revenues the government would be stepping in more, at least to get their share.

What is the revenue really likely to be ?

If we assume a 5% juice / vig / profit for bookmakers ... that's $235 million bookmaker profit of $4.7 billion turnover.
Perhaps there is $85 million in bonus costs etc., that drops the profit to $150 million.
Factor in staff, premises, and affiliate costs - and perhaps it's only $80 million to the bookies after expenses.

So what cut does the US government want? Corporate taxes? Special turnover levy?
Whatever - it's likely to be between $10 to $20 million - and probably costs more to setup to administrate and collect it than it's worth.

People read a big headline number like turnover (and in this case the number is 97% made up turnover) and think that there are literally billions available when the real truth is that the final profits and taxes are only a tiny fraction of the wagering total.

[DanHorvat]

What the hell just happened

[Soplica]

Did someone bet on tied game?

[DanHorvat]

No but I had a bet on Pats -4.5.

[Miles_Videoslots]

No but I had a bet on Pats -4.5.

Watched the Highlights a few moments ago what a cracker .. Lady gaga was excellent lol