Noting that the preponderance of Dublin, Ireland-based Flutter’s profitability was shifting to American shores and that the United States market could be three times larger than the rest of the world by 2030, “The discussion around a U.S. listing makes sense,” Wheatcroft wrote. He added, “A full U.S. listing may result in significant shareholder churn, as some will not hold U.S.-listed shares.” He also cautioned that obtaining 75 percent shareholder approval for an IPO would present “a high hurdle.”
Given Flutter’s international position, Wheatcroft expects it to trade for a premium on stock exchanges. Recent arbitration valued Flutter at $22 billion, including a $2 billion carrying-value adjustment. According to Wheatcroft, the implication is that Flutter’s non-U.S. assets are priced at only six times cash flow compared to a historical average of 15 times. He applied a 10-times-cash-flow valuation and arrived at a prospective stock price of £165 per share or $201.
While Wheatcroft expects the Flutter board to “consult extensively with shareholders” before formally proposing an IPO, he says it has “reached the preliminary view that an additional secondary U.S. list of … ordinary shares will yield a number of long-term strategic and capital-market benefits.”