Becoming an affiliate in 2021, the right choice for me?

[Bradmondo]

Hey guys

I'll explain my own situation first and hopefully you guys can provide me with some of your expert knowledge then

Firstly, I'm based in the UK and I have been gambling myself on football since I was about 15 years old. I believe over the years I have become more and more skilled at picking games and markets and my knowledge of football has increased hugely over the years and my own returns have grown higher and higher.

A couple of years ago i noticed the vast amounts of people on social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter following these 'free football tipsters' who themselves have hundreds of thousands of followers. After studying these sites I couldn't believe the level of losses compared to wins and so I wondered how are their followings so large? So after a little bit of research I discovered that they are all affiliated to different bookmakers and are profiting off peoples losses. So myself with a good knowledge of IT, a basic understanding of affiliate marketing and full confidence in my own football knowledge I'm thinking, why can't I do what these guys do but do it better?


So at the beginning of last year I decided to set up my own Facebook and Twitter accounts for providing free football tips to followers. I work very hard and put in hours of research to pick bets that i feel have a great chance of winning. The results have been very good and my followers have grown to over 16,000 across both social media sites in a little under 9 months. Many of these followers interact with me on the two pages and there is definitely a level of appreciation for the accuracy of my tips. But now I wonder, where do I take it from here?

I've been doing a lot of research on sports affiliate programs over the last few months and am wondering is this the right choice for me in 2021? I've read thread after thread here of people bashing each and every major sports bookie and its left me wondering can any of them be trusted anymore? I'm also well aware now that I am in a completely saturated market and the business I am looking to profit on is completely unethical as my wins will have to turn to losses in order for me to make a gain. Perhaps I was blinded by my initial thought of "I'm better than all these guys", before I started. I do have full confidence in what I do and I believe I have a following on social media that knows and trusts me and I believe this will continue to grow, but I'm at a standstill and am unsure where to go from here.

The only other option I can think of us to start charging followers or set up a VIP section where followers can pay a monthly premium or something of the likes. But do I feel that my pages will continue to grow at the rate they are now if I go down this road? Maybe not.


Perhaps you guys can advise and of course any help would be greatly appreciated.

[Strider1973]

Congrats on the 16k subscribers. Just don't forget that those subscribers are not yours as many have lost their gambling related social media pages.

You will never know if it works out if you don't try it. If you don't have ethical problems than y advice would be: Stop reading, stop doing research, and start working now. With working I mean, start a website. Collect emails. Test a VIP service. And sign up at 3-5 sportsbooks that either your competitors promote or that you personally like.

Good luck!

[mlolm]

My advice: come up with a plan. What is it you want to do? You seem to want to focus on sports betting. The 16k subscribers is a good indicator that there are people interested in your topic, but as said you won't be able to monetize that very much. Not only the risk of getting banned and losing all those subscribers, but 16k from my experience is not enough to generate enough revenue to live off of. However, it is a good jumping off point.

So make a list of questions and try to answer them, ask for help here, and then get started building. I think just jumping right in without a clear idea of what your plan is, what you want to achieve and how is too much potential for wasted time (speaking from experience here).

[Bradmondo]

Congrats on the 16k subscribers. Just don't forget that those subscribers are not yours as many have lost their gambling related social media pages.

You will never know if it works out if you don't try it. If you don't have ethical problems than y advice would be: Stop reading, stop doing research, and start working now. With working I mean, start a website. Collect emails. Test a VIP service. And sign up at 3-5 sportsbooks that either your competitors promote or that you personally like.

Good luck!

Agreed, Facebook are supposed to be notorious for closing pages like this lately so will definitely keep that in mind

Any recommendations on where to go to start a website like this ?

[MJM]

I have exactly zero experience in the tips/picks/predictions markets - but if it was me I'd be developing my business plan around a CPA model.

Honesty and transparency goes a long ways, explain how you make money to your users and point out that you are paid the same whether they win or lose.

[Bradmondo]

My advice: come up with a plan. What is it you want to do? You seem to want to focus on sports betting. The 16k subscribers is a good indicator that there are people interested in your topic, but as said you won't be able to monetize that very much. Not only the risk of getting banned and losing all those subscribers, but 16k from my experience is not enough to generate enough revenue to live off of. However, it is a good jumping off point.

So make a list of questions and try to answer them, ask for help here, and then get started building. I think just jumping right in without a clear idea of what your plan is, what you want to achieve and how is too much potential for wasted time (speaking from experience here).

Thank you very much for your advice. Yes agreed, 16k is certainly not enough to make a living from but I definitely feel I am going in the right direction. I've read facebook are cramping down a lot on betting accounts so I'm definitely concentrating more on Twitter lately.

My plan has always been to grow my pages to a point where I can monetize them, I know the money will not be great at the beginning but as long as I am generating revenue it will motivate me to keep going and with growth I would hope my profits would increase gradually. I'm just unsure what the best path would be and from reading these forums I'm growing less confident that any UK sports affiliate program can be relied upon.

I know Bet365 are reliable but don't seem to accept socials at the moment, I've read so many negative threads on Paddypower, betfair, williamhill, 888 etc. is there anyone else?

[gil.langelaan]

Hey!


Congrats on the 16k followers!

Hmm, interesting situation.
Of course, it's kind of shady business but if you are sure about your predictions and you are an honest person I think you should keep on going with your first plan.

But I really like the idea to create a kind of VIP section. To attract news bettors you could give them a discount for your service or help them for free 2-3 times and after to charge for the VIP subscription.

Or make the system if you win you pay % if you lose you not pay. They will be esure you are interested in their winnings.


Good luck!

[chaumi]

Re the affiliate aspect....if you did think of going down that route remember that you get paid for punters signing up with a bookie...but it may be (and is quite possibly the case) that your followers are already punters therefore will already have betting accounts.

Certainly with the major books.

So (if that is an accurate situation) then you'd have to be putting other lesser known bookies in front of them or reams of different offers in the hope they don't already have accounts.

I think in your situation I'd be thinking of a membership site. You could build the site, start posting duplicates of what you're posting on social media to get it running, then communicate out to the 16k followers that on x date the info will be continued under paid membership on xxxxxx.co.uk. You might lose a bunch, but if the results have been consistently good (and you set the membership pricepoint right) you may find enough will sign up to make it viable

for example 1000 at a fiver a month = £5k Not to be sniffed at!!


And once you have the captured market hitting the site, there is nothing to stop you putting the odd good bookies offer in front of them as extra 'content'


If you want an example I know a UK horse racing site that runs this type of model. PM me for the name if you want it and you can see how they do it

[PaulEchere]

A lot of good points have already been brought up here, I would personally like to comment on the "ethical" bit you raised there.
It is true, that wins have to turn into losses if you will get a revenue share with a bookie, but it doesn't mean that your pick have to be losses. I don't know how often you give out your tips, but let's say you give one a day - a good portion of your subscribers are likely placing more bets than that on a daily basis. So as far as your tips go, they can be as good as they are right now.

Another interesting point here was the fact, that most of your readers already have an account with a bookmaker, so you will not get any profit of of their betting activity. Here you would indeed need to promote smaller and lesser known brands, however it doesn't necessarily have to be dodgy bookies. There are a lot of good smaller betting brands, who are happy to get new UK players

And creating a website in your case is surely the way to go - you can just duplicate your social media content there and having a decent following word of mouth will take care of the rest.

[Sherlock]

I believe over the years I have become more and more skilled at picking games and markets and my knowledge of football has increased hugely over the years and my own returns have grown higher and higher.

If this is true then you do not need to do marketing. You can bet as any pro and make much more money hassle free at sharp bookies. I did it in the past. It is not possible anymore, lines are simply too sharp, but you can be the genius, ok. Then the numbers do not lie.

If you only believe in it, ok then it is good to start a tipster website with affiliate marketing. But I am not sure if this service is still accepted in UK. I think there were some regulations that tipsters are no more allowed? Also you will not make any money on UK traffic nowadays. I repeat: you will not make money in the UK with affiliate marketing (unless you are accepted by bet365). So only for non-UK traffic this model makes sense.

[chaumi]

''but it doesn't mean that your pick have to be losses. I don't know how often you give out your tips, but let's say you give one a day - a good portion of your subscribers are likely placing more bets than that on a daily basis. So as far as your tips go, they can be as good as they are right now.''

Good point Paul

[Sherlock]

Picks are neither "wins" or "loses". Picks are just random choice that is losing long term because of vig. If someone was able to pick loses (theoretically), he is able to pick winners as well as the opposite bets.

There are no long term tipsters who can deliver. Just the best ones sincerely believe in it and therefore they look legit in their own eyes and even in eyes of others. Even if in theory some picks were the ones with value, the army of 16 subscribers would move the odds into non-value quickly.

[Former Member 14]

Even seasoned affiliates these days, with literally years of exp, it's getting harder and harder to get signups. As apposed to years ago, when getting 100 new punters a months wasn't unusual. As others have said, that 16K of followers is great, well done.

However, the likelihood is because they are punters already, a large % of that 16K already have UK bookie accounts.

If it was me, I'm be going to VIP membership subscription. In addition, I'd be setting up a website. Without that, and if FB suddenly decide to terminate your page, then your screwed. BUT if you establish a website, and move the business side of things to you website, you'll be in a much safer position.

I'd also think paying VIP members would feel more trusting in joining/subscribing to a website, than a free Facebook page... just sayin!

[allfreechips]

Like Sherlock said if your picks are 60% or better why waste time with aff accounts when you can make millions betting?

[drifter8]

I have to agree with Scherlock and allfreechips - it your picks worth go to sharp bookies and do not even think of affiliation

VIP section is also a choice, bit you will have a lower value. Also ofr FB and Twitt account, when starting to promote a bookie be prepared all your pages to get lost and closed, I am speaking from my exprerience.
Also at least 70-80 % of this people have already accounts in other bookies.

If you are a good punter , make bets and win as much as you can.

It is not a bad idea to start your own website and start getting info about those all subscribers.

[chaumi]

To all who have said ' well if you're that good just go back all your tips yourself and make a fortune in winnings'...

It doesn't necessarily work like that. You are not in the OPs shoes, so you do not necessarily know the drivers/limiters.

There are (or may be in the OPs case) various reasons why that isn't sustainable and not just because of the (almost certain) inevitable losing runs. Bradenton already said he/she has been punting since age 15 (and we'll assume that he/she is not 16 now), so you can assume that he/she knows the game well enough.


Tipsters motives vary. Yes many fall into the trickster bracket where they're trying to take advantage of punters desires to win or their (often misplaced) optimism in trying to do so.

But some (and mainly the more amateur types into which OP seems to fall at this point) do believe in what they do and actually want to share that. Now that's not altruistic (nothing ever is right??!!!), it's often about wanting to be seen as knowledgeable/able to get it right/recognized for being good at it. And there's nothing wrong with that, it's a base human instinct.

But equally there's nothing wrong with (if you are 'good') noting that and seeking ways to make something from it.


To OP If you do consider the membership route....one possible pitfall (probably of many)......


The pressure.

The pressure of having to get it right consistently enough (not there when you're giving out free stuff)
The pressure of having to go through the/your process of arriving at selections and communicating them (also not there when you're giving out free)


And if you want an extra follower just let me know (PM) where to sign up

[Bradmondo]

A lot of good points have already been brought up here, I would personally like to comment on the "ethical" bit you raised there.
It is true, that wins have to turn into losses if you will get a revenue share with a bookie, but it doesn't mean that your pick have to be losses. I don't know how often you give out your tips, but let's say you give one a day - a good portion of your subscribers are likely placing more bets than that on a daily basis. So as far as your tips go, they can be as good as they are right now.

Another interesting point here was the fact, that most of your readers already have an account with a bookmaker, so you will not get any profit of of their betting activity. Here you would indeed need to promote smaller and lesser known brands, however it doesn't necessarily have to be dodgy bookies. There are a lot of good smaller betting brands, who are happy to get new UK players

And creating a website in your case is surely the way to go - you can just duplicate your social media content there and having a decent following word of mouth will take care of the rest.

Thanks Paul some great points there. I agree that the well known bookmakers are probably ones to avoid because like you said, many will already have accounts. But are they any lesser known bookmakers that can be relied upon? I mean its solely sports and football betting that I am associated with but I'm finding it difficult to find one that will meet my needs

[Bradmondo]

If this is true then you do not need to do marketing. You can bet as any pro and make much more money hassle free at sharp bookies. I did it in the past. It is not possible anymore, lines are simply too sharp, but you can be the genius, ok. Then the numbers do not lie.

If you only believe in it, ok then it is good to start a tipster website with affiliate marketing. But I am not sure if this service is still accepted in UK. I think there were some regulations that tipsters are no more allowed? Also you will not make any money on UK traffic nowadays. I repeat: you will not make money in the UK with affiliate marketing (unless you are accepted by bet365). So only for non-UK traffic this model makes sense.

Hmmm I'm not so sure about this. I've been in the game long enough to know that once you start winning and winning big the bookies will limit your account and you will have to start again elsewhere. I've seen it happen time and time again.

I don't agree with your second point that money cannot be made UK traffic these days. Perhaps its harder than before and I know there is a lot of new regulation etc. but if you are good enough and you believe in your work then you can make money anywhere. Also I don't believe there is any regulation against tipsters, unless something has changed that I'm not aware of?

[Bradmondo]

Even seasoned affiliates these days, with literally years of exp, it's getting harder and harder to get signups. As apposed to years ago, when getting 100 new punters a months wasn't unusual. As others have said, that 16K of followers is great, well done.

However, the likelihood is because they are punters already, a large % of that 16K already have UK bookie accounts.

If it was me, I'm be going to VIP membership subscription. In addition, I'd be setting up a website. Without that, and if FB suddenly decide to terminate your page, then your screwed. BUT if you establish a website, and move the business side of things to you website, you'll be in a much safer position.

I'd also think paying VIP members would feel more trusting in joining/subscribing to a website, than a free Facebook page... just sayin!

Yes are 100% right, some if not all my followers will already have UK bookies accounts and will have been punters long before finding my page, however, I speak to these guys on a daily basis and there is no one bookie that is more common than another. What I mean is, they all have accounts with different bookies and not the one. That's why I'm wondering, would it be best to find a lesser known bookie that I know my followers are not associated with and sign up to their affiliate program? My problem is, I cannot seem to find a bookmaker that sounds reliable, I mean everyone I look into and even search on these forums has one bad review after the next.

You make a very good point too about followers being more trusted in something they may wish to pay for than something they can get for free on a facebook page so I will definitely take that on board. The only other question I'm asking myself is, would these followers even be followers if they were being asked to pay at the outset? It's difficult to know

[Bradmondo]

To OP If you do consider the membership route....one possible pitfall (probably of many)......

The pressure.

The pressure of having to get it right consistently enough (not there when you're giving out free stuff)
The pressure of having to go through the/your process of arriving at selections and communicating them (also not there when you're giving out free)


And if you want an extra follower just let me know (PM) where to sign up

Good point, I never really thought about this. I guess only time will tell if I do go down this route.

And of course, any new followers are welcome