Betting Editorial for UK, Australia and Canada - 20/06/2011

[Adam W]

Hi Guys,

Below is today's English language versions of the Betting Editorial:

UK

Soccer

Chelsea to turn to Villas-Boas

Reports in Portugal suggest FC Porto boss Andre Villas-Boas will replace Carlo Ancelotti as Chelsea manager.

The Blues, who can be backed at 5/2 with bet365 to win the Premier League in 2011/12, seem prepared to pay the €15million necessary to activate a release clause in Villas-Boas' contract and Porto president Pinta da Costa knows he will then be powerless to prevent his manager leaving.

Villas-Boas is familiar with Stamford Bridge after serving as a coach under Jose Mourinho and is believed to be keen to return.

Da Costa said: "Villas-Boas has a contract and a clause of €15million.

"If someone deposits €15million into our account and he wants to go, we cannot do anything because it is something that is contractually specified."

Chelsea, who are 15/2 to triumph in the Champions League next season, revealed last week their aim to name Ancelotti's successor before the end of June.

Golf

Donald to recharge batteries ahead of Open

World number one Luke Donald says he will take a two-week break ahead of next month's Open Championship after a poor showing at the US Open.

Donald, who is 12/1 to win the British Open with bet365, was one of the pre-tournament favourites but ended 21 shots behind record-breaking winner Rory McIlroy, who can be backed at 11/2.

The Englishman had finished in the top ten in 15 of his previous 16 tournaments as he rose to the top of the rankings but has admitted his busy schedule was to blame for his poor performance at Congressional.

He said: "The last six or seven weeks has taken a lot out of me.

"I've certainly been in contention a lot, played a lot of golf in different countries, different time zones, and I probably haven't got my energy levels quite back up to where I would have liked them to be at the beginning of this week."

Rugby Union

Stevens earns England recall

Martin Johnson has named Saracens prop Matt Stevens in the 45-man England World Cup warm-up squad less than six months after his successful return from a drugs ban.

England can be backed at 8/1 to win the World Cup with bet365 while New Zealand are 8/11, Australia 4/1 and South Africa 6/1.

Stevens, who has over 30 England caps, returned to the professional game in January after two years out and was part of the Saracens squad that won the Grand Final before helping England Saxons win the Churchill Cup this weekend.

Johnson has told the players they will all be given the chance to impress him and book a spot in his final 30-man squad for the World Cup in September.

Five uncapped players in Manu Samoa Tuilagi, Thomas Waldrom, Joe Simpson, Charlie Sharples and the South African-born Mouritz Botha, have been named in the squad.

Johnson has also included all of his successful Six Nations squad, together with Richard Wigglesworth, Lee Mears, Ugo Monye and James Simpson-Daniel.

"The camp is going to be intense and competitive, as you would expect leading up to a World Cup, but all the players are ready for it," he said.

Australia

Rugby Union

Waratahs skipper praises character

Skipper Phil Waugh insists that the Waratahs, who are 22/1 with bet365 to win the Grand Final, need fear no-one in the Super Rugby finals.

The Waratahs made it into the finals in emphatic style on Saturday, with a 41-7 win over the Brumbies in which they ran in five tries to one.

“I think we can beat anyone we can play against,” Waugh told AAP.

“It's important to take momentum into the finals and it's just a matter now of freshening up and getting guys on the field... I think we're in a pretty good space.

“I think sometimes we can get carried away with poor performances but I think the guys have battled really hard throughout the season.

“To be under the pressure that we've been under for the last two weeks, coming back from Africa and to have those two big wins like that, says a lot about the character of the guys heading into next week.”

The Waratahs do have fresh injury concerns following the Brumbies game.

Hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau (leg), flyhalf Daniel Halangahu (calf) and prop Al Baxter (concussion) were all forced from the field in the second half on Saturday night.

Rugby League

Hagan backs under-pressure Canterbury coach

Former club coach Michael Hagan has backed Kevin Moore to stay on as coach of the Bulldogs, who are 16/1 with bet365 to win the Grand Final.

Rumours are abounding that the club will break with 76 years of tradition by sacking a coach during a season.

Canterbury lost 28-10 to strugglers Cronulla on Saturday, and Moore’s standing has not been helped by a tense stand-off with centre Jamal Idris.

Hagain wrote on Yahoo7: “Canterbury should stick by Moore. The Bulldogs are known for their loyalty to coaches and hopefully that won't change.”

Hagan says the Bulldogs will achieve little by cutting Moore loose.

“Canterbury is a club that demands success. It has a proud and wonderful history. Failure isn't tolerated,” Hagan said.

“But we have to be realistic about where this team should finish.”

“We can be a fickle mob in rugby league. We always seem to vent our anger at the coach. Everyone should stop pointing the finger.”

Rugby League

Hindmarsh certain of success

NSW star Nathan Hindmarsh says he is certain the Blues, who are 6/5 with bet365 to win State of Origin, will end Queensland’s run of dominance.

The Maroons have won five straight series, but after levelling at 1-1 last Wednesday, Parramatta captain Hindmarsh, is convinced this is NSW’s year.

Hindmarsh, who has played in 17 Origin games, told the Sydney Morning Herald: “I'm confident we'll win this series, because of the group of players that have been picked, the coach we've got, the preparation we've had, and I just think the momentum's changing, it's swinging.”

He added: “I think we can take that to Queensland and get the job done. I think NSW will have the confidence to do it up there, definitely.”

Roared on by fervent NSW supporters at ANZ Stadium, the Blues came from behind on Wednesday to keep the series alive. And Hindmarsh said he saw the win coming.
“I did, yeah. I thought we did very well in game one,” he said.

“We didn't have too much ball in that first half, and to nearly win the game was a credit to the side. We defended really well, which took a fair bit of juice out of our forwards, but we held them for nearly the whole game.

“I think it gave them the confidence to win the second one.”

Canada

Baseball

Boston blast Brewers

The Boston Red Sox, 20/23 with bet365 to win the American League and 2/1 to win the World Series, will welcome the San Diego Padres to Fenway Park after taking two of three from the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. Andrew Miller, called up to take the place of Clay Buchholz, should get his first start of the season.

Baseball

Twins win seventh straight

Carl Pavano will head to the hill for the Minnesota Twins, 80/1 with bet365 to win the World Series, as they travel to the Bay Area to face the San Francisco Giants to open a three-game series after the Twins completed an 8-1 home stand against the Rangers, White Sox and Padres.

Baseball

Seattle close in on Texas

The Seattle Mariners, 5/1 with bet365 to finish at the top of the American League West division, will look to build on a series victory over the division leading Philadelphia Phillies, 2/1 to win the World Series, when they travel to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Nationals at the start of a six-game road trip.

Baseball

Florida lose again

It doesn't get much easier for the Florida Marlins, losers of their last 10 games and now 80/1 with bet365 to win the World Series, as they welcome eight game winner Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels to Miami for the start of a three-game set before the red-hot Seattle Mariners, 40/1 to win the World Series, come into town.

If you have any questions please feel free to contact me other any other member of the bet365 team.

Thanks,

Adam

[charlesjay]

With regard to golf, I see all these players who are ranked highly in the OWGR (Official World Golf Ranking), such as Donald, Lee Westwood, Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar, who seem to have gotten there without having won a major championship.

If we are to concede that the majors, along with a select number of other tournaments, whether they are on the PGA Tour or the European Tour, are the ones that mean the most (and indeed, the players themselves would admit that too), I wonder whether the points system by which the OWGR is compiled should be a little more weighted toward performance in those events, rewarding victory to a much more disproportionate extent. How can someone call Luke Donald, Steve Stricker or Lee Westwood the #1 player in the world when they have yet to get over the hump in a major?

Your thoughts?

CJ

[Nigel R]

Hi Cj,

I can see your point of view but don't agree that the World Golf Rankings should be more weighted towards Major winners.

Please let me explain why...

Just about any professional golfer in the world can win a Major by stringing four good rounds together in the week that matters and I will point you to some recent examples: Ben Curtis (2003 Open), Todd Hamilton (2004 Open) & Michael Campbell (2005 US Open). Sure, they shot the lowest score over the four days and shot up the rankings as a result, but it would involve a stretch of the imagination to call them 'No.1 player in the world' on the back of that single victory and, with the possible exception of Curtis, they've done precious little since.

Also, some of the best players ever to take up the game have never won a Major. Colin Montgomerie is the perfect example here. Of course, he has gone close on a few occasions (five no less) but that elusive first Major continues to elude him, yet in his prime he was the undisputed best player in Europe - topped the old Order Of Merit six times running - and possibly the world - I believe he reached No.2 in the rankings at one stage. Also, I should point out that Phil Mickelson was 33 when he won his first major, the 2004 Masters, but does that make him any less of a player? I don't think so.

So, while players continue to see a Major victory as the crowning moment of their careers, I don't think we should place too much emphasis on their performances in the four weeks of the year that encompass the Majors and I'm sure most golf fans who follow the Tours regularly, appreciating the quality of play week in week out, would agree

Thanks - Nigel

[charlesjay]

Hi Cj,




Also, I should point out that Phil Mickelson was 33 when he won his first major, the 2004 Masters, but does that make him any less of a player? I don't think so.

Thanks - Nigel

My answer to your question is that while that might not make him less of a player, his lack of a major title made him less celebrated, less decorated, less credentialed a player, and deservedly so. There's a reason they are called "majors." No doubt the top players from overseas are every bit the equal of the U.S. players (even "more" equal, if you know what I mean), but they all come over here to play three of the majors, provided they have qualified.

Yes, you are going to have upsets in the major tournaments. To add more to your list, Rich Beem and Shawn Micheel would fit squarely in this category. But the thing is, they didn't do much aside from that, and when that is the case, they aren't going to highly rated players anyway, relative to those who perform on a much more consistent basis. I think you may have misinterpreted what I wrote, because I never made a case for any one-week wonders to be rated #1. Right? What I did say is that I believe it's a real stretch to say that a player who has failed in majors would merit the #1 spot.

With all the top fives in majors that a someone like Westwood has had, he certainly deserves a high ranking. Beyond a few others, I'm not so sure I can make much of a case. If I have a choice between players with comparable numbers of tournament victories, I am always going to give the edge to the player who has won majors over the one who hasn't. And as you make reference to the people who follow the Tour week-in and week-out, they know better than anybody that once you get past the major championships, the Tour Championship, the Players, the WGC events and perhaps some of the FedEx playoff events (at least here in the U.S.), the fields are generally thinner. Winning the St. Jude Classic doesn't mean the same as winning the PGA Championship. The field isn't nearly as deep. Can you find any player who would say otherwise?

I know that NASCAR has tried to downplay their own concept of "majors" when it comes to races, and beyond the Daytona 500, they have succeeded to a considerable extent. They have devised their own "playoff" system. I haven't seen the PGA establish anything that supersedes the majors. Until they do, a major is a major, and as such, deserves major reward.

CJ

[charlesjay]

All that having been said, the OWGR actually IS weighted toward the majors, or at least some of them....LOL.....

From Wiki:

Beginning in April 1989, the rankings were changed to be based on the average points per event played instead of simply total points earned, subject to a minimum divisor of 60 (20 events per year). This was in order to more accurately reflect the status of some (particularly older) players, who played in far fewer events than their younger contemporaries but demonstrated in major championships that their ranking was artificially low. Tom Watson, for example, finished in the top 15 of eight major championships between 1987 and 1989, yet had a "total points" ranking of just 40th; his ranking became a more realistic 20th when based on "average points". A new system for determining the "weight" of each tournament was also introduced, based on the strength of the tournament's field in terms of their pre-tournament world rankings. Major championships were guaranteed to remain at 50 points for the winners, and all other events could attain a maximum of 40 points for the winner if all of the world's top 100 were present. In practice most PGA Tour events awarded around 25 points to the winner, European Tour events around 18 and JPGA Tour events around 12.

OK, so I guess I don't have as much of a gripe with them; they DO agree that some tournaments should mean more than others.....

Also, they discuss this other issue, which I would argue about....

"On a few occasions the ranking system has caused discussion about whether it has produced the "right" World Number One. This usually occurs when the number one ranked player has not won a major championship during the ranking period, while a rival has won more than one....."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officia..._Golf_Rankings

[charlesjay]

Oh well, that's the golf thing done to death.....maybe a Battle Royal, with clubs, would solve the issue - for the players, that is.

[rak]

Rugby League
Hindmarsh certain of success

NSW star Nathan Hindmarsh says he is certain the Blues, who are 6/5 with bet365 to win State of Origin, will end Queensland’s run of dominance.

The Maroons have won five straight series, but after levelling at 1-1 last Wednesday, Parramatta captain Hindmarsh, is convinced this is NSW’s year.

Hindmarsh, who has played in 17 Origin games, told the Sydney Morning Herald: “I'm confident we'll win this series, because of the group of players that have been picked, the coach we've got, the preparation we've had, and I just think the momentum's changing, it's swinging.”

He added: “I think we can take that to Queensland and get the job done. I think NSW will have the confidence to do it up there, definitely.”

Roared on by fervent NSW supporters at ANZ Stadium, the Blues came from behind on Wednesday to keep the series alive. And Hindmarsh said he saw the win coming.
“I did, yeah. I thought we did very well in game one,” he said.

“We didn't have too much ball in that first half, and to nearly win the game was a credit to the side. We defended really well, which took a fair bit of juice out of our forwards, but we held them for nearly the whole game.

“I think it gave them the confidence to win the second one.”

Every player, coach, manager is going to say "I'm confident we can win"... but in reality - Queensland for the win.

The bonding, passion, skill and professionalism of the Queensland team is far beyond what NSW has had for the last 5 years. There is something about the Queensland team where they have this uncanny understanding - its like they come ready to play everytime for State of Origin. Everytime - whether win or lose. Ready.

What makes Queensland so deadly is, even when they are down in points, the last 10 mins of the 1st half and final half, they start putting it on and break NSW.

But then I am a Queenslander.