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  1. #21
    Voids is offline Private Member
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    The pound dropping to parity with the Euro would be good for UK businesses. It makes our goods cheaper to buy for foreign countries, and it means that the B2B prices between UK firms are more competitive against their European counterparts.

    For me trying to further isolate our economy from the struggling Eurozone (which I firmly believe will fail) will prove the better decision. There is a large amount of dissatisfaction in the UK and on the continent regarding the European Union. Unfortunately, it is a bureaucratic monster and it would take decades of concerted effort to change it. This appears to be a protest vote, one that we knew would have negative consequences, but may give the wake up call the EU needs. We may have taken one for the team.

    Nobody knows what the best course of action is, but the banks, traders and governments all hate change. It will probably take 20 years or more to decide whether Brexit was a success, and that will be decided by the historians.

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  3. #22
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    I'm lucky, my job is essentially export.

    I agree with most of that voids, but lets be honest, what do we export these days? We import more than we export by some way.

    Without good trade routes we could be the richest country in the world, it wouldn't matter. We will still be an inward looking regressive country that no one really cares much for.

    Trade is key and May better had get that right, shes gambling with the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    In truth it'll be 5 years at least until we know. Even once article 50 is triggered it will take years to get out and set up new trade deals. As a guide it took China 15 years to join the WTO.

    It goes one of two ways, a soft brexit where we end up with practically the same as what we had before but with no seat at the table (which doesn't look likely). Or a hard stance brexit where we sever all ties to the EU, this will cripple us (at least int he short term) but it looks like that's what our un-elected leader is leaning towards.

    Yet again it'll be my generation that suffers as it did with housing prices, triple lock pensions and austerity.

    That's not to say I'm an EU fan, the freedom of movement act is total BS I agree with thebookiesoffers there, but I think we gain more from the EU than we lose as an all around package.
    thing with trade is that the rest of the EU sell us more than we sell them, they, (especially the big boys like Germany) will be harming themselves just as much as us if they don't try and engage in decent trade deals.

    and that's before you even get me on that Schengen Zone. I flew from Prague to Stockholm, then a few days later onto Luxembourg and didn't have to show my passport once, nevermind having it scanned. In a world in which we have global terrorism that is just bonkers. I know the UK is not part of that looney zone but imagine if some Europhille like Nick Clegg or Tim Farron managed to get the countries car keys, they'd try and pull the country with a load of tugboats closer to the French coast nevermind opening our borders

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  6. #24
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    The problem is, we need all 27 countries to agree on a trade deal (ironically that is the problem with the EU to begin with). Just because Germany wants it, doesn't mean Slovakia does.

    The EU would have to go back on everything it stands for to appease Germany / France. That wouldn't sit well with the "lesser" economic powers and would spell the end of the EU. On the flip side the EU could make us suffer, make an example of us. This is what happens when you leave the block.

    Its pointless even guessing, who knows where we are heading. Its a huge period of uncertainty and the economy reflects that.

  7. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    The problem is, we need all 27 countries to agree on a trade deal (ironically that is the problem with the EU to begin with). Just because Germany wants it, doesn't mean Slovakia does.

    The EU would have to go back on everything it stands for to appease Germany / France. That wouldn't sit well with the "lesser" economic powers and would spell the end of the EU. On the flip side the EU could make us suffer, make an example of us. This is what happens when you leave the block.

    Its pointless even guessing, who knows where we are heading. Its a huge period of uncertainty and the economy reflects that.
    yeah but if Germany suffers then the rest of the EU suffers, the rest have to fall in line. I think personally the "smaller" countries will be more bothered if they have to contribute to other bail outs like the Greeks rather than anything else

    Edit - Anyway Im out of here, posted far too much for my liking the last few days on here

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  9. #26
    Voids is offline Private Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    I'm lucky, my job is essentially export.

    I agree with most of that voids, but lets be honest, what do we export these days? We import more than we export by some way.

    Without good trade routes we could be the richest country in the world, it wouldn't matter. We will still be an inward looking regressive country that no one really cares much for.

    Trade is key and May better had get that right, shes gambling with the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
    I'd say our lack of exporting has been due to the strength of the .

    Even our Quaternary services can be exported. A business in Austria may have wanted expertise from the UK but he may previously have had to pay a 20% increase in cost if not more. With the reaching parity, other economies will be able to access our trades.

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  11. #27
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    To be honest i voted remain, but i'm a firm believer in democracy thus accept the vote. I think the initial reaction from remainers was shock, but like with anything in life you learn to get on with it!

    Personally, i don't think Britain has a lot to fear, the economy will take care of itself. Luckily for us we are a ''trusted'' nation, and by that i mean the world generally respects our constitution (if i can call it that) and politics. To be honest, i've played the Brit card to get me further in life and i consider myself very lucky to be carrying such a solid passport.

    Back to the original question. Market economies such has the UK have peaks and troughs, and recession is part of the cycle. Usually a recession is a balancing act/market correction - when one comes along it will be hard to pinpoint how it was affected by Brexit!

    I believe most Brits are proud by nature, but it doesn't mean we believe we are ''Great''. In fact, i can list many things that upset me more than brexit (Nanny State), but none of it matters has we still have choices.

    Where there's a will there's a way!

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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    Yet again it'll be my generation that suffers as it did with housing prices . . .
    On this specific point . . . housing is a boom and bust cycle in the UK. Always has been. There will be a crash, and it will be massive, because the boom cycle has overshot reality by so far this time. I know there is little prospect of interest rate rises, but when it happens it will be very nasty indeed. Back to the era of mass repossessions etc. I am not suggesting anyone wait for that when houses are also for living in (as opposed to just an investment). But the UK property market always re-aligns. I remember a friend of mine maybe 20 years ago saying to me 'our generation' had missed out on the housing boom. Every generation feels same way in the midst of a massive boom cycle. UK house prices can not and do not ever defy gravity indefinitely.

  14. #29
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    Average age of first time homeowners in the UK is now 32. It won't get any better with Brexit, that's my point.

    We're just an unlucky generation with the global crash and now this.

    Pretty much every policy of the Tory Government has been aimed towards the older generation (Example: Triple Lock Pensions). Thats our fault though, old people vote, young people dont.

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  16. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    Average age of first time homeowners in the UK is now 32. It won't get any better with Brexit, that's my point.

    We're just an unlucky generation with the global crash and now this.

    Pretty much every policy of the Tory Government has been aimed towards the older generation (Example: Triple Lock Pensions). Thats our fault though, old people vote, young people dont.
    So you think Brexit will improve the economy and so raise house prices further? That is a very strange view for a remainer to have.
    Brexit has nothing to do with house prices, they are over-inflated whatever the environment and a correction will come. As a remainer you ought to expect that to be sooner rather than later, as Brexit is 'obviously' going to see the economy collapse.
    There are plenty of people in your generation making fortunes. But it isn't the ones saying they are an unlucky generation and blaming circumstance - that is the excuse people use for doing nothing. I also find it strange that someone as young as yourself is fixating on pensions. Change always creates opportunity and there will be plenty. You are in charge of your own life and the sad fact is nobody is going to help you but yourself. If you just give up because the government has ruined your life then you wont take advantage of the opportunities when they present themselves. Sorry if I sound patronising.

  17. #31
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    Its wasn't a moan post, part of the reason I don't have a house yet is my own fault, Im fully aware of that. I'm too busy living out my 20s to make a 30 year commitment.

    But from where I am sat, I see a shortage of houses already.

    In my area, houses on the market do not stay available for long, investors are buying up everything pushing rent higher and higher. If the economy does crash then that hits construction, less houses, even higher rent.

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  19. #32
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    Fair comment, but I promise you housing will drop. There will be a small drop imminently, it is already happening in London because of the increased stamp duty on second homes and impending inability for buy-to-let landlords to set mortgage interest against profits (a mad change created by George Osborne egged on by that clueless Carney). That last factor, if not reversed, is going to see a serious decline in rental properties available as mortgaged up landlords offload. House prices will lower and rents will rise. Certainly this will have a real affect in London where buy-to-let is a significant factor, but it will be minor stuff compared to the ramifications if interest rates ever rise to normal levels, rather than all these years of record lows.

  20. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by gaffg View Post
    you mean this 350 million per week?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7099906.html

    London might lose it's 'status' as a the banking capital of europe

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-manuel-valls
    Independent and The Guardian are the exact definition of left-wing bleating.

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  22. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post

    We're just an unlucky generation with the global crash and now this.
    You are not an unlucky generation. I would ask, which people do you consider the 'lucky generations' to make this point true?

  23. #35
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    You are not an unlucky generation. I would ask, which people do you consider the 'lucky generations' to make this point true?
    Basically the boomers had it the best, https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...oomer-pensions

    A good book called Jilted Generation that explains it all in detail. https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0040GJ4...ng=UTF8&btkr=1 I'd hate to be a young person today without well of parents. I really do believe that now more than ever its who your parents are that decide where you'll get in life rather than what you do as in individual.

    Back to the question whether Brexit was a success, it won't be known for at least a decade. Depends on how the negotiations go and what happens to the EU. That could implode still and we'll have done well to get out before.

    The exchange rate is killing me though, http://brexitbottomline.co.uk/ I earn in sterling but live on Euros so took a massive pay cut.

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  25. #36
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    The UK car industry supports 800,000+ jobs with 80% of vehicles produced in the UK exported. A recent threat by Nissan to close its plant in Sunderland has been met with assurance’s by the British PM to compensate for tariffs. Multiply this across other automobile manufactures and then other industries the cost will be huge.

    The EU have imposed ridiculous rules in many cases and the countries should have pushed back more. That being said there were also many benefits. Voting for Brexit was a knee jerk reaction by many without really knowing all the facts and long term impact, they thought of only today.

    The PM is adamant to push forward in 2017 with Brexit that was not legally required after the vote.

    All this being said, the arrogance of the EU in Brussels have also caused much of the problem themselves and they too will suffer.

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  27. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by benl12 View Post
    Basically the boomers had it the best, https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...oomer-pensions

    A good book called Jilted Generation that explains it all in detail. https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0040GJ4...ng=UTF8&btkr=1 I'd hate to be a young person today without well of parents. I really do believe that now more than ever its who your parents are that decide where you'll get in life rather than what you do as in individual.

    Back to the question whether Brexit was a success, it won't be known for at least a decade. Depends on how the negotiations go and what happens to the EU. That could implode still and we'll have done well to get out before.

    The exchange rate is killing me though, http://brexitbottomline.co.uk/ I earn in sterling but live on Euros so took a massive pay cut.


    This generation have got it hard to buy and own a house yep.

    But the general standard of living is a lot higher, EVERYONE can have a car. I'm 35 and was brought up working class poor and it was very hard to afford a car - I see a lot more people having a car now because the cost has come right down and there are loads of decent 10 year old bargain cars knocking about. I remember our council house in the 80s, it was crap, we were poor, we walked EVERYWHERE or occasionally got the bus, my mum used to stand at a big hand washing machine thing to do the clothes washing. Now everyone has a washing machine, dishwasher etc etc.

    School was a lot harsher, I remember getting pinned up against the wall by one of my teachers, another one threw a board duster at people, others just scared the crap out of people by shouting a lot. We were actually scared and respectful of the police. Kids now, you can't tough them, they are precious beings unable to be touched or given a harsh word to.

    Young people now have much more freedom to do what they want, there is less social conditioning and pressure. If you want to be gay, go for it, you want 800 tattoos, hey that's fashion, you want to have you hair in a crazy way or wear crazy clothes, do it, you want to take drugs, ah well go for it, you want to travel the world, go for it cos air travel became so cheap and you can do room sharing very easily. Things became much more relaxed, there were loads more taboos still in the 90s.

    The internet means more and more people can run their own blog/site/social page and monetise it, people have more opportunities to make their own business and free themselves from the chains of a 9-5 life of being tied to a place. The internet is the opportunity that previous generations didn't have. People previously who were stuck in a career ceiling in shop jobs, offices, labour jobs, trades etc etc, now kids have the internet which is basically a limitless opportunity.

    All I see is a moany, whiny bunch of kids. Hard done to my arse. They've never had more freedom, never had more choices, never had more labour and time saving devices - I'm only 35 and already feel like a completely different generation to this bunch of 20-something mobile phone staring generation of mollycoddled moaners.

    Sorry for the rant. People get on my nerves.

    PS, Might have known it was the Guardian posting articles feeding the hard-done to vibe among their Corbynista social justice warrior readership.
    Last edited by RacingJim; 16 October 2016 at 3:57 pm.

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  29. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by xecutable View Post
    Is a rate 1 to 1 or even lower likely though?
    Not likely. Just bought more GBP. There will be a bottom. Always, always after those abrupt events, there are such doom predictions. 2 years ago: bitcoin is dead. 1 year ago: USD/EUR parity is certain thing.

    GBP indeed got hurt by this decision, because it should be certainly above 1.35, maybe 1.5 to wastly overpriced USD. Next going down will be probably USD, becasue USD price and strenght recently reflects rising of interest rates, that will most likely again not occur. The same is now with GBP where Brexit was priced in and now market is trying to price in hard Brexit. I bought GBP now because the pressure of Scottland and the economic disaster looming will cause not so hard Brexit, unless the UK government went completely nuts.

    Overall all state currencies are ****. We will see abrupt depreciations one after another. Together with negative interest rates (and later with inflation) all cash will be sooner or later swallowed into black hole. There are not many alternatives. Real estates, stocks, bonds are all on bubble too. What is remaining is physical gold, cryptos and your own business that is looking towards harsh future.
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  30. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by RacingJim View Post
    This generation have got it hard to buy and own a house yep.

    But the general standard of living is a lot higher, EVERYONE can have a car. I'm 35 and was brought up working class poor and it was very hard to afford a car - I see a lot more people having a car now because the cost has come right down and there are loads of decent 10 year old bargain cars knocking about. I remember our council house in the 80s, it was crap, we were poor, we walked EVERYWHERE or occasionally got the bus, my mum used to stand at a big hand washing machine thing to do the clothes washing. Now everyone has a washing machine, dishwasher etc etc.

    School was a lot harsher, I remember getting pinned up against the wall by one of my teachers, another one threw a board duster at people, others just scared the crap out of people by shouting a lot. We were actually scared and respectful of the police. Kids now, you can't tough them, they are precious beings unable to be touched or given a harsh word to.

    Young people now have much more freedom to do what they want, there is less social conditioning and pressure. If you want to be gay, go for it, you want 800 tattoos, hey that's fashion, you want to have you hair in a crazy way or wear crazy clothes, do it, you want to take drugs, ah well go for it, you want to travel the world, go for it cos air travel became so cheap and you can do room sharing very easily. Things became much more relaxed, there were loads more taboos still in the 90s.

    The internet means more and more people can run their own blog/site/social page and monetise it, people have more opportunities to make their own business and free themselves from the chains of a 9-5 life of being tied to a place. The internet is the opportunity that previous generations didn't have. People previously who were stuck in a career ceiling in shop jobs, offices, labour jobs, trades etc etc, now kids have the internet which is basically a limitless opportunity.

    All I see is a moany, whiny bunch of kids. Hard done to my arse. They've never had more freedom, never had more choices, never had more labour and time saving devices - I'm only 35 and already feel like a completely different generation to this bunch of 20-something mobile phone staring generation of mollycoddled moaners.

    Sorry for the rant. People get on my nerves.

    PS, Might have known it was the Guardian posting articles feeding the hard-done to vibe among their Corbynista social justice warrior readership.
    Just my 2 cents:
    I think it is/was better to be kicked into ass 50x by classmates and teachers and police and ..., while people were young, than 0x. Yes, it was hard to not reveal ourself (irony). I also had 1 meter long hair and listened to weird music and nobody understood me. As life goes on, I am happy for that. Without this experience, I would have no idea what is the world about. And the world is about survival of the fittest.

    I do not think we are more free. Not just the era 20 years ago was more free. I think even ******* "communism" was in many ways more free era than now. What kind of capitalism is this, when I feel like a thief when I am asking bank for my money? What kind of future is this that when I want to fly by airplane, i am stripped by people and machines? At 1989 we were protesting against secret police cameras. There were less than 10 in a big city. I remember dismantling one of them still. There are much more of those on every street.

    I do not complain. Freedom is always only for those who want to fight for it. It was never for free and never will be. It is the most expensive thing. Any era has the battle for freedom. It is always a very different battle. But I am happy I am not in my teens now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    I bought GBP now because the pressure of Scottland and the economic disaster looming will cause not so hard Brexit, unless the UK government went completely nuts.
    don't believe the Scottish hype from Nicola Sturgen mate, they have no bargaining chips whatsoever. They lost their referendum when oil was twice as expensive and their economy is currently running a 9% deficit, the EU states you can't join if your deficit is more than 3%. They'd also have to accept the euro. we'll get a full hard brexit

    i do think the pound won't fall much further though against the euro

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