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    Default Cost To The Economy?

    So what are your opinions on the next stage of the crisis? first being lockdown 2nd will be the financial cost of it all. I can see the nightlife industry taking a massive hit, here in Spain I can see only a few reopening once this is all over.

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    I think the cost will be insane on the verge of having more casualties then the disease itself. It's not just nightlife. All social/entertainment going to suffer, but much more. Small businesses, etc.

    Some countries announced that they will support all (such as the Netherlands), others don't really care. In the first case - not sure where this money will come from (printing) which means inflation. Second case, many close and high unemployment.

    I think a lot depends on when it ends. If summer - some countries will totally collapse, Greece for instance. Summer without tourism would be a death blow there.
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    ABout tourism is not only Greece. It is like the same with: Turkey , Spain, Italy and Bulgaria.

    Printing money is not the issue, but what other issue will be after dead economies and big unemployment
    Seven times fall, eight times stand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drifter8 View Post
    ABout tourism is not only Greece. It is like the same with: Turkey , Spain, Italy and Bulgaria.

    Printing money is not the issue, but what other issue will be after dead economies and big unemployment
    So far Spain has lost 100,000 per day for the last 7 days, (according to elpais) then you will have the knock on effect after the crisis is over and from the other countries affected, would 40-50% unemployment be likely? the last crisis it was 25%..

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    The Australian Gov., has adopted stimulus packages to help businesses. Banks have reduced mortgage rates; in addition for anyone who can't meet their mortgage obligations these people wont be defaulted on those payments. Welfare recipients el at have received a temporary increase to their fortnightly payments, and the six (6) week waiting-period to obtain welfare benefits has been temporarily suspended, whilst, Covid-19 remains.

    There's also a stimulus package of $750 per Welfare Precipitant being handed out at of End of March (last payments to hit by Mid April). A few months back, employees received a similar payment of $1,000.

    NT, WA and now SA (4pm Tuesday) are closing their borders (including airports).

    In SA, PwC has now provided (pro bono) auditing services, in the wake of the state's border closures, to ensure, those in mandatory isolation, adhere to these strict orders. SAPOL (police) now have the authority to enforce isolation if anyone breaches their 14 day obligation.

    Australia wide
    Pubs, clubs, casinos, night clubs and cinemas are all closed.
    Cafes, restaurants, fast-food outlets can only serve take-away (McDonald's, KFC etc., - only drive thru).

    Essential Services Exempted
    Hospitals, doctor surgeries, dentists, chemists, supermarkets, petrol stations, transport trucks etc., (anyone entering WA, NT, SA will be checked).

    State and Federal Cabinet are currently holding an emergency meeting in Canberra (tonight Sunday), the outcome of that is still unknown.

    It's pretty full, hey!

    However, as Aussies, we're are being looked after, as best as the Federal and State Gov's., can.

    Edit:
    The one thing that's about to make me lose-the-plot...
    Partner's 18 year old son (ironically he's a 1'st year nursing student), can't get it thru is head, that washing hands after you've return home is a MUST. I don't know how many times we've got to tell him to wash his f'ing hands... grrrrrrrrrrrr!
    Last edited by AussieDave; 22 March 2020 at 10:09 am. Reason: edit
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    Just this: chief hygienist of one EU country just said that borders can be closed "for years".

    You do not need anything else - the dead people, the keynesian multiplicator, the helicopter money&hyperinflation.

    Just imagine the world with closed borders for years.

    Indeed that might not be reality in the end, but just counting with such event will have incredible structural impact.

    I like one aphorism I just read on ZH that fits here: there will be no costs to the economy, because there will be no economy (for nitpickers - indeed there will be economy until last man and woman will exchange sex for food, but the structure of economy and everything around will be something way different).
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
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    Anyone want to bet that Universal Basic Income gains a massive amount of popularity when this is all said and done?

    For businesses that fail, let them fail. They were mismanaged to begin with. This trend, for decades now, of operating with massive leverage and an inability to weather any storm, needs to end. Zombification of the world leads to stagnation and awful companies with no souls. Let them die and let those who saved their capital and know how to plan rebuild from the ashes.

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    World with universal income - I believe yes it will be now on table.

    Even if approved it will do nothing. The prices of cheap housing and basic things will just go up, so everything will be as un-affordable as by now for those low incomers.

    This reminds me suicide booths from Futurama. The system is after point of no return, and now we can decide how to quit it. Fast and brutally or slowly with a lot of pain. Human nature is to suffer the most always with some fake hope. After all whole last decade was not some incredible economic conjuncture and success (as all people keep pretending, because they were able to buy more useless stuff or gamble away more money), it was painful slow approaching to random black swan that now has a name Corona.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
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    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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    Is the coronavirus going to be a recurring problem like the annual flu season, or are governments hoping to extinguish it from the face of the Earth? If it's going to pop up every year, it will most likely take out tens of millions of people and bankrupt many economies. Let's hope they find a vaccine for it sooner than later.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sweetbet View Post
    Is the coronavirus going to be a recurring problem like the annual flu season, or are governments hoping to extinguish it from the face of the Earth? If it's going to pop up every year, it will most likely take out tens of millions of people and bankrupt many economies. Let's hope they find a vaccine for it sooner than later.
    I would say that it will become part of thousands of flue like viruses. There are new each year and this is one of them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wonderpunter View Post
    So what are your opinions on the next stage of the crisis? first being lockdown 2nd will be the financial cost of it all. I can see the nightlife industry taking a massive hit, here in Spain I can see only a few reopening once this is all over.
    Luckily our premier acted early by shutting down Sydney's nightlife 5 years ago :/

    They've just closed gyms too which means my last piece of sanity is now gone.. I will be improvising at home (I have lots of gym equipment from when I was bodybuilding) and putting some challenges online for other people stuck at home with no equipment.

    On the other hand I think some people who are already in home isolation need to get off social media. It's doing them more harm than good.
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    During the 2008 financial crisis I saw not a real impact on gambling. The Coronavirus crisis did not even start and I already see numbers going down. Tough times ahead, my prediction is that the high season starting in September will be already fine again. Hope to right on this one
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    Counting from now, I belive that after 6 months we will see rise in figures. Of course, I can not speak generally, but from my tower.

    Sports affiliates do suffer a lot ( already have spoken with many friends), but this will be a lesson in future.

    The dramatic part will be the unempoyment rate in some countries ( between 25% - 50 %).

    As soon as vaccine/ cure would be fine, there will be not so many dramatic changes in our industry, but other industies like tourism, restaurands and travels as whole will suffer for a 1-1.5 year.

    Also another point of view. We - as affiliates are used to working from home for a long time and for us stayin between 4 walls is not a big problem.

    But other people , who are used to normal cycle 9-17 , this is a great disaster . Some of them , after staying at home are getting completely insane

    After all this passes away, we have to change our mentality for everything.
    Seven times fall, eight times stand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AussieDave View Post
    Partner's 18 year old son (ironically he's a 1'st year nursing student), can't get it thru is head, that washing hands after you've return home is a MUST. I don't know how many times we've got to tell him to wash his f'ing hands... grrrrrrrrrrrr!
    Easy fix :
    Put a bucket of soapy water next to front door with a hand towel
    Take his key to the front door - put it in the bucket.

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    Deaths and irreversible lung damage among healthcare workers may exact a toll on future generations that we cannot yet calculate. We may have to restructure healthcare systems around the world.

    I think many jobs will be lost permanently but replaced by other jobs. In the United States we've been heading in a certain direction for a long time, and this crisis appears to be accelerating these trends:

    Declines in:

    • Brick and mortar retail jobs
    • Mining and refining jobs
    • Manufacturing jobs
    • Some sectors of energy production
    • Banking and finance


    Increases in:

    • Delivery jobs
    • Freelance jobs (writing, various tasks)
    • Software development
    • Healthcare
    • Distribution infrastructure (warehouses, fulfillment centers)


    Paychecks will continue to decline because corporations tend to cut labor when they need to reduce expenses. To replace full-time employees they turn to contractors, often transferring those employees to the contractors. But now the contractors are feeling the squeeze and to reduce costs they in turn farm out some of their jobs to sub-contractors.

    Each time a job is pushed away from the primary corporation there is a risk of people being paid less. Every middle man corporation takes a cut but the final corporate customer for that labor force is still trying to save money, so they are injecting less money into the pay funnel than before.

    One possible boon from the crisis may come in the stock market. Since the 1990s, when U.S. law began requiring corporations to disclose executive compensation, CEOs have been compensated mostly in stock. So they have been incentivized to drive up the price of their stocks, and a favored strategy for that was the stock buyback option. For startup workers being offered stock options is a risk because you don't know if the company will go public and about 80% of them never reach that stage.

    For a publicly traded company the executives can make millions of dollars per year selling their stock, and the higher that price goes the more money they make. Thus our stock markets gradually shifted from income investing (buying stocks that pay dividends) to value investing (buying stocks that are expected to increase in price).

    If this crisis forces companies to accept government bailouts, CEO stock options may become less valuable or worthless. They won't be able to use government money to buy back shares. Value investing may prove to be a big bubble.

    In which case demand could shift back to dividend-paying stocks. And that assumes there will be any left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    Easy fix :
    Put a bucket of soapy water next to front door with a hand towel
    Take his key to the front door - put it in the bucket.
    If he was my son, well... he'd be told once, and that would be that. His dad's the same, told once that's it. But mom is wrapped round his finger. Believe me it's trying time at our place right now.
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    Your house, your rules. Or no? Once women or central banks are out of leash, horrible things start to happen. Like spoiled brats.

    The first thing I did at the entrance of my grandma house after arrival was that I took big piece of paper, wrote there: WASH YOU FKING HANDS IMMEDIATELY AFTER ENTERING THIS HOUSE. YES EVEN YOU and glued it on the door.

    I am curious if it is still there. After all it could be carved into the door forever. Anyways have my permission to use my intellectual property in your case.
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    The Orange man is probably right is saying that the cure (4-5 weeks shutdown and isolation) is far more expensive than the problem (100,000 deaths per nation but mainly old people who don't contribute any more) ... but that's very hard nosed - and political suicide especially if the 100,000 deaths come to pass.

    The cost will be enormous - but there is little option in modern politics. Modern society is woke and supportive and we won't let 100,000 people die (in each countries) and so lockdown and isolation it is.

    Expect significant unemployment, massive budget blowouts etc. and 2 years to recover from a shutdown.

    I'm usually quite right wing, and pro-individual choice. But in this case I think that our oldies need support and help to survive, and it would take a real nasty person / group to declare the old and sick as economically expendable.

    ------

    Having said that if this happens again in 5 years time - when we know the real cost to society and economies - then countries may take another/harder solution.

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    The idea that this disease is more deadly to older people than young people has been dispelled by the rising death tolls among younger patients. California just reported the first death of a U.S. child. At least one other in Georgia is in critical condition.

    Both Italy and Spain are reporting that many critical and dying patients are in their 20s.

    We can speculate on why early reports led to the erroneous conclusion that older patients are more at risk than younger patients but that would be pointless. The numbers are growing in all age groups.

    There is no natural immunity to this kind of virus in human populations. Everyone is equally susceptible to the infection. Who lives and who dies depends on more than just how healthy you are. Some very healthy young people with none of the "preexisting health conditions" have already died from the disease.

    The most aggravating factor appears to be whether the healthcare system can handle the patient load. Once the hospitals are overwhelmed, and the medical staff become too sick to care for the other sick, the system fails. Then even more deaths occur for lack of treatment. And you also see a rise in deaths from non-virus causes as those patients lose or miss out on medical care.

    In Spain, one nursing home was abandoned by its staff who fled in fear. When the army arrived to check on the residents (who had no way to leave and nowhere to go) many of them were already dead and the rest were sick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Martinez View Post
    The idea that this disease is more deadly to older people than young people has been dispelled by the rising death tolls among younger patients. California just reported the first death of a U.S. child. At least one other in Georgia is in critical condition.

    Both Italy and Spain are reporting that many critical and dying patients are in their 20s.

    We can speculate on why early reports led to the erroneous conclusion that older patients are more at risk than younger patients but that would be pointless. The numbers are growing in all age groups.
    You need to check stats and not just numbers, plus it's not about how many get sick as younger people can get it the same way, but just the survival rate.

    Just checked now Italy stats: 7 died between age 20-29 (0.2%). And only 1 person died between 10-19. 0 deaths below 9.
    Plus i haven't checked if out of those 8 some of them had other conditions.
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