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  1. #1
    BetsGalore is offline Public Member
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    Default Eurovision Betting

    I know most people will hate this but there is massive potential to trade in this market successfully.

    No matter if you are a fan of the competition or not I think there is plenty of opportunists to make money on the exchanges with this.

    Here are some of the countries I think are overpriced and will definitely shorten as we come closer to the start in May


    Denmark 230
    United Kingdom 240
    Bulgaria 32
    Spain 46
    Latvia 24


    Anyone have experience in this in the past?

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  3. #2
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    We watch it - it's fun / quirky snapshot of European culture.

    The voting system is quite politic as people cannot vote for their own nation - so it tends to be countries with a friendly relations and/or LARGE ex-pat community in many other countries that do well. In recent years the voting trends have been laughable with obvious population connections.

    So based on that Scandinavian countries do well accordingly, and countries like Russia (Ukraine invasion) , Germany (20th century history), UK (fun to give them "Nil Point") and Spain (no friends) have no chance no matter how good the song is. Many just will not vote for them.

    I do note that this year that they are changing the scoring a bit with judges - or at least not announcing the judges vote - in an attempt to circumvent the mass influence.

    And there are exceptions if you can zoom in on a social theme or trend - 2 years ago a bearded cross dresser from Austria won in a landslide - the song was average but it rallied the Gay/Lesbian/Transvestite community into voting action. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fvLtTRzdHw

    And in 2011 Azerbaijan won it with a pretty weak song - but people seemed to thing the couple were lovely "running up stairs"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OQWfLt1Bh0 - as I say weak ... but it won.

    So if you're betting you can take advantage of apparent mis-matches between quality of entry and theoretical likelihood of winning, and long as you remember the real geo-political truths of voting, and/or the joker of mass opinion.

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    Oh - and a potential geo-political roughy ...

    Belgium usually submit a funky / catchy little jazz number that always sounds good to me but that struggles to the final to finish about 15th.
    No friends for the Euro-capital normally I guess. I just wonder if people might be more generous this time.

    (This sort of sums up how I view this event - very "clicky")

  6. #4
    BetsGalore is offline Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    We watch it - it's fun / quirky snapshot of European culture.

    The voting system is quite politic as people cannot vote for their own nation - so it tends to be countries with a friendly relations and/or LARGE ex-pat community in many other countries that do well. In recent years the voting trends have been laughable with obvious population connections.

    So based on that Scandinavian countries do well accordingly, and countries like Russia (Ukraine invasion) , Germany (20th century history), UK (fun to give them "Nil Point") and Spain (no friends) have no chance no matter how good the song is. Many just will not vote for them.

    I do note that this year that they are changing the scoring a bit with judges - or at least not announcing the judges vote - in an attempt to circumvent the mass influence.

    And there are exceptions if you can zoom in on a social theme or trend - 2 years ago a bearded cross dresser from Austria won in a landslide - the song was average but it rallied the Gay/Lesbian/Transvestite community into voting action. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fvLtTRzdHw

    And in 2011 Azerbaijan won it with a pretty weak song - but people seemed to thing the couple were lovely "running up stairs"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OQWfLt1Bh0 - as I say weak ... but it won.

    So if you're betting you can take advantage of apparent mis-matches between quality of entry and theoretical likelihood of winning, and long as you remember the real geo-political truths of voting, and/or the joker of mass opinion.


    Its very interesting in terms of political voting but over the last couple of years they have introduced a jury vote for each country.

    So its 50% Jury and 50% public vote and the split in votes has had a huge impact on the results in recent years (Denmark,Germany,Austria,Sweden and Norway have won since 2009) but some countries have a head start with public votes.


    Russia have a huge diaspora and will get 30+ points no matter what song they have but they are current favs with the bookies.

    As a trading opportunity its fantastic though.

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    To me, its a talent contest that has absolutely nothing to do with talent.

    As mentioned above its all about geo-politics and a favour for a favour, it will always be viewed as laughable in my eyes until that changes.

    Glad to hear half they're trying to make changes to make it more about talent (with the judges).

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    Eurovision betting is interesting, do you know where bets on Eurovision can be made ?

  10. #7
    BetsGalore is offline Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    To me, its a talent contest that has absolutely nothing to do with talent.

    As mentioned above its all about geo-politics and a favour for a favour, it will always be viewed as laughable in my eyes until that changes.

    Glad to hear half they're trying to make changes to make it more about talent (with the judges).

    haha

    The Eurovision is like Big Brother, no one admits to watching it but viewing figures are huge all over the world.

    "I was flicking through the channels and I saw five minutes of it"

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    BetsGalore is offline Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by ocreditor View Post
    Eurovision betting is interesting, do you know where bets on Eurovision can be made ?
    I'm using Betfair Exchange


    Here is the full market
    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner

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    Every now and then it produces something magical...Epic Sax Guy for example.

    Internet sensation overnight, those hips haha.


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    Hahaha 2 minutes of pure loop entertainment

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    I can get you the 10 hour version, its no problem

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  19. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    I can get you the 10 hour version, its no problem
    Thanks Stephen, that's so kind of you but I already have plans for the weekend

  20. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetsGalore View Post
    haha

    The Eurovision is like Big Brother, no one admits to watching it but viewing figures are huge all over the world.

    "I was flicking through the channels and I saw five minutes of it"
    i can tell you you won't catch me watching that eurorubbish

  21. #14
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    My money is on Malta!

  22. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    We watch it - it's fun / quirky snapshot of European culture.

    The voting system is quite politic as people cannot vote for their own nation - so it tends to be countries with a friendly relations and/or LARGE ex-pat community in many other countries that do well. In recent years the voting trends have been laughable with obvious population connections.

    So based on that Scandinavian countries do well accordingly, and countries like Russia (Ukraine invasion) , Germany (20th century history), UK (fun to give them "Nil Point") and Spain (no friends) have no chance no matter how good the song is. Many just will not vote for them.

    I do note that this year that they are changing the scoring a bit with judges - or at least not announcing the judges vote - in an attempt to circumvent the mass influence.

    And there are exceptions if you can zoom in on a social theme or trend - 2 years ago a bearded cross dresser from Austria won in a landslide - the song was average but it rallied the Gay/Lesbian/Transvestite community into voting action. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fvLtTRzdHw

    And in 2011 Azerbaijan won it with a pretty weak song - but people seemed to thing the couple were lovely "running up stairs"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OQWfLt1Bh0 - as I say weak ... but it won.

    So if you're betting you can take advantage of apparent mis-matches between quality of entry and theoretical likelihood of winning, and long as you remember the real geo-political truths of voting, and/or the joker of mass opinion.
    That's exactly how we see it.

    Not sure if you get the same guy Paul, but most Aussies used to watch only the points section just for the commentator. His name is Sir Terry Wogan.

    I will post some videos below for some laughs. This guy is why aussies love eurovision so much and wanted to be in it so badly.
    I don't know anyone that actually watches the songs, we only watch the voting.

    Enjoy

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8tuRKUlUS4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tK-5f9eT4HE

    And a bunch of more popular videos:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8tu...BCutSKMpdYKV9X
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    ocreditor's Avatar
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    Lol thanks Renee real funny stuff

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  26. #17
    BetsGalore is offline Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebookiesoffers View Post
    i can tell you you won't catch me watching that eurorubbish
    You're a real man so...

  27. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    To me, its a talent contest that has absolutely nothing to do with talent.

    As mentioned above its all about geo-politics and a favour for a favour, it will always be viewed as laughable in my eyes until that changes.

    Glad to hear half they're trying to make changes to make it more about talent (with the judges).
    Cannot agree more with Stephen and TheGooner. It's a show, where they should've changed countries into some funny names It is 90% politics, as Estonians will mostly always give 12 points to Finland or Sweden, no matter who was singing

    Oh yeah, not going to bet on Eurovision..
    My website: http://mrbinary.co.uk/

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  28. #19
    BetsGalore is offline Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celebrationbird View Post
    My money is on Malta!
    I think they will do well and could be another trading opportunity as the price will most likely shorten as the event nears

  29. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetsGalore View Post
    You're a real man so...
    correct. watching a load of weirdos being even weirder. werent there a woman with a beard the other year? ffs

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