How accurate do you think google AdWords keyword tool is?

[itsblitz]

what are the thoughts on how accurate googles keyword tool and traffic estimater is?, i never expected it to be that accurate to the exact numbers, but over the past 2 weeks iv started to really think if its even anywhere near close. An example of this is one of my sites just over 2 weeks ago jumped up to the no1 result in google uk and number 2 in .com for a search term that gets 9,900 global and 1,900 local searchs per month in the keyword tools stats. I havent recieved a single hit on my site from this term since it went top. Doesnt this seem odd?

[WinYourWayKyle]

I dont mean to sound cynical... But have you checked to confirm your google analytics code is inserted correcty?

[TheGooner]

My first thought is that seems hugely unlikely doesn't it?

Could Google possibly be that inaccurate - where 9,900 really equals zero? Maybe but perhaps there are other possibilities?

One possibility is that Googles search personalisation is active and because you visit your sites a lot it tweaks the search results so that you see your site positioned highly when you personally check - but that you are NOT actually #1 and #2 for the general public. Possible?

[itsblitz]

iv been caught out by that before, like being signed into gwt and ranking no1 for something huge lol, but no, its legit, iv checked it through a few serp position tools and rankchecker and im no1, really weird, i wonder how old the data is in adwords, for instance i could imagine 5 many years ago people would have been searching for things like "virtual casino" and "internet casino" but i guese(just guessing) these terms wouldnt be fashionable as much now but does keyword tool tae an average for the last 10 years? i think im rambling, its late here and iv had a few lol

[felku]

that is strange I have reach any top position but I know people that quickly that got the the#1 started to receive a lot of traffic.

[genich99]

i never look at the keyword tool as something that gives me an absolute number of searches, rather something that shows how much a specific keyword is being searched comparing to another keyword.
That would give a direction what exact keyword to target when there are 2 or more options available. For example the word "slots" in some languages (like Dutch for example) being translated and in some (like Swedish) the majority of the people use the English word when searching.

[CoopersPick]

Here is an idea check the exact search not broad keyword match. I think that number may shrink tremendously and is it a seasonal term?

[michael1981]

Google Adwords is roughly accurate, although some keywords that are supposed to get lots of traffic definitely do not. Maybe you should use Adwords in combination with another tool, that way you can get a more accurate picture

[betarades]

Please take a look on this notice:
If you specified a country or language for your search, this is an approximate average of 12 months of user queries on the keyword that relates to these countries and languages.
So if you look for a keyword which is trend only for two months a year, keywords will not be accurate. You should calculate the right number of queries.
For example, this period the transfers has too much traffic in sports sites. If you look in adwords tool you will see that there are not so many queries. This is a wrong impression, so you should know that the numbers are an approximate average of 12 months.

[itsblitz]

hi, thank for the feedback, but the term is not a trend or seasonal term, its also a short term, just 2 words, but i think its not used as much in the uk, even though adwords says it gets 1,900, if i was no1 google.com instead of 5 i would see the rewards, it will come though, cheers

[bonusbetting]

I base my research on the exacts and phrase matches - the broad match is unrealistic for competitive terms IMO.

This might be obvious, but do your page title and description accurately reflect what people using that term are looking for?
i.e. it's no good ranking #1 for "widget testing" if your title/description says "buy widgets now".

I read somewhere that quite a large percentage of searches result in no click at all.
If you run a search and the results aren't what you need, people often just search again with different terms.

Does anyone know if Google's keyword stats are for unique searches? Because if every search is counted, and you get a few webmasters running automated searches regularly, those results are going to be heavily skewed for the more competitive terms.

It would be nice to think that Google strips out automated searches, but I think if they could do that they would be preventing them already - and someone would come up with a way round it, because there are a million webmasters who want to check their rankings easily.

I hope I'm wrong on this, I much prefer the seasonal variation explanation, but I think it could be a factor.
I have a few reasonable #1 positions that I was expecting more traffic from, but I am finding they get traffic in fits and starts. That fits in with the nature of sports betting as obviously there is more interest around big events.

Then again, I also have a one page site that is #1 for a single exact match term.
It gets more visits for that exact term in a month than the total exact match searches listed on the keyword tool.
Webmaster Tools gives it a 40% CTR, so clearly those stats are a little out - I can't believe the term has doubled in popularity in 12 months.

[RyanTheRave]

The Keyword Tool is VERY unreliable and inaccurate but it gives you an indication.

Many of the volumes haven't been updated for months / years in some cases and the majority of them for highly competitive search terms are all the same.

[Azzopardi]

Agree with RyanTheRave,

I use it as a bearing to compare it with other keywords and not for actual numbers.

Suggestions:
1. Make sure you filter the country correctly. By default it's usually set to united states. Make sure it's set to UK if that's your target market.
2. Compare the keyword with other tools such as Google Trends, sometimes keywords are seasonal and they aren't searched much right now
3. Make sure you search for the keyword from another PC, sometimes due to Google's personalised search you might think you're ranking first page but it will only show on your pc.

[OnlineCasinoGames360]

Ask a friend from another country to do the search in google to check if you are really at 1st position

[itsblitz]

ok im a knob, i hold my hands up, dave merry pointed out that i had the broad term box checked, i didnt even notice it on the right, i do rank no1 for this term but it only gets around a hundred hits, cheers to everyone though, feel free to hit me with the stupid stick

[Parth84]

There are plenty of tools to check out, but i think Google analytics and keyword research is better to use. You can get accurate results.

[smithjenny]

i dont find it accurate

[TheBoy]

I think that Google Adwords is accurate but its important to check the "Exact Match" option

[Mysterio]

I can tell you now that it's NOT accurate at all.

[tryme]

In terms of search volumes, even for exact match, I ignore the actual numbers and use it as indicator.

As an example, I might want to know whether the term 'real money poker' gets more searches than 'play poker online' - the actual numbers, for me, are irrelevant - I just want a binary yes/no answer.