I-gaming consolidation and its effect on affiliate marketing

I was just following an amusing argument.

One guy said, "As the poker rooms consolidate and become larger there will be less and less effort spent on affiliates and more spent on direct advertising."

I've been thinking about it, and it seems plausible to me, although I think it would be a slow trend, something that would take several years to develop (just as consolidation will surely continue to take place over the next few years).

If an operator has a large mainstream marketing presence and great brand awareness, what need is there for affiliate marketing? Bonuses I figure is one big reason. A lot of players bonus hunt and affiliates are an awesome resource for that. But I figure that in about ten years most of the small operators will have been gobbled up by the big dogs and there will be a much smaller number of sites. But I also figure that affiliates will continue to be extremely important to companies targetting the U.S. market as long as the country continues handle online gambling policy poorly (because mainstream marketing will not be easy).

Anyway, this same guy who made the above claim backed it up by saying the big sites like Bodog and PokerStars are developing criteria standards for their affiliates. The reason he gave was because there are "real costs associated with acquiring and maintaining affiliates." But another person told me that some sites only want to be associated with the sites that have the best presentations and reputations.

Anybody got thoughts on this? I hope I haven't offended anyone. I only mean to stimulate some thinking and discussion.