Interesting story about prediction markets
RealClearPolitics.com has an interesting story about prediction markets and how they've outperformed political polls in the last several elections.
Quote:
Who will be our next president? If you want an accurate guess, don't ask the pundits. Go where people put their money where their mouths are.
Intrade.com (
www.intrade.com), for example.
It's a prediction market, basically a futures market like those where people bet on the future price of oil, gold and pork bellies. But at Intrade, people bet mostly on politics.
The prices on Intrade have been highly accurate predictors of the future. On TV, political "experts" make pronouncements on what they think will happen, but crowds of bettors on sites like Intrade are right more often.
Full story here ... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...he_wisdom.html
