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  1. #1
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    Default Next Blood in the Streets Moment?

    MicroStrategy Buys 13,005 Bitcoin At $37,617 Using Proceeds From First Ever Crypto Junk Bond

    MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 13,005 bitcoins for ~$489 million in cash at an average price of ~$37,617 per bitcoin. As of 6/21/21 we #hodl ~105,085 bitcoins acquired for ~$2.741 billion at an average price of ~$26,080 per bitcoin. $MSTR
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    Microstrategy taking out half billion dollar loans here and there to dollar cost average down in BTC.

    These are the types of things people might try to exploit by forcing a margin call puke of a few billion dollars worth of BTC. If such a thing happened, price would plummet hard in the short term.

    This is a time I would want to be buying.

    Just sharing some thoughts....

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    Some people are even quating 450k value before the end of the year.. some big risks being taken at the moment,

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    Well, even if you buy BTC now you will still profit long term.
    People who bought @20k a few years back got rekt during the bear market and sold at a loss should have just waited and would end up profiting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wonderpunter View Post
    Some people are even quating 450k value before the end of the year..
    Those people are retarded.
    And I am sick to read random number from random people without zero reason behind it.
    Some other equally retarded people are quoting 0 by tomorrow.

    There is exactly 0.00000... % chance of 450K this year. Posthalving correction + falling hashrate => nearly impossible to hit 450K. The only chance to reach it by 2021 is hyperinflation.

    I am ready to buy sub 30K.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Those people are retarded.
    And I am sick to read random number from random people without zero reason behind it.
    Some other equally retarded people are quoting 0 by tomorrow.

    There is exactly 0.00000... % chance of 450K this year. Posthalving correction + falling hashrate => nearly impossible to hit 450K. The only chance to reach it by 2021 is hyperinflation.

    I am ready to buy sub 30K.
    Wow, here's your chance at $29.5

    I may have missed it, but what is your guess for end of 2021?
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    Yes, now is my buying zone (my estimation was bottom at 30k, so now the coins seem to be "cheap").

    It is said that the best price prediction is always the spot price, which obviously looks weird; but until we are close to next halving in 2024 (so until 2023) I think the spot is the best estimation. This is why I do not hurry now with buys, especially because I caught some eye inflammation.

    I think sub 25k woould be hard and sub 20k very hard. However the hashrate now is really dropping. And shitcoins incl ETH must drop further. I think BTC might be allowed to pick up when ETH&comp capitulates completely (at 0.02-0.04 ETH/BTC). Because what is happening in those post halving rallies is that BTC is like a dog who came out of river and shaking his fur to clean himself out of water and parasites (shitcoins).

    On the other way we see how the economy is collapsing. Prices of construction for example are skyrocketing, interest rates can not go lower. In winter will come another wave of coronavirus, because (i) people refuse to vaccinate and (ii) vaccines help but do not work as we were told (just see Chile where in some regions are new curfews and people are vaccinated way above what had to be the herd immunity) (iii) even some old people refuse to get the jabs and those people will be dying again and whole society will be locked down because of them. So we will see continuation of crazy monetary policy in 1st world and total collapse in 3rd world (where will be interest rates raised or policymakers will give up completely). Those factors are very good for bitcoin.

    So if price now is 30K, my estimation for the end of year is 30K as well. But it can differ a lot. Either way now is the time to buy, especially for those who did not yet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    I think sub 25k would be hard and sub 20k very hard.
    What I am saying is if hedge funds or other parties were to collude and push prices downward in the short-term, they could, in theory, FORCE MicroStrategy to puke BTC into the market with margin calls on their junk bond loans.

    A big player selling like that would absolutely tank prices thousands of dollars, even if it was a very short-term thing.

    So essentially, I am pointing out what I think is a future trading opportunity (i.e. buy when/if MicroStrategy is forced to puke some of their positions because of being overleveraged).

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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulEchere View Post
    Well, even if you buy BTC now you will still profit long term.
    Maybe, but if that was 100% or 99% or 90% correct - btc price wouldn't be what it is right now.

    Twice a year I place a bet on sports. I did few days ago when France were trailing Hungary 0:1. France winning was worth like x3. They had 45 min to overturn it so it seemed like a great bet. Well, it wasn't.

    Hope btc case will be different
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  11. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by PROFRBcom View Post
    What I am saying is if hedge funds or other parties were to collude and push prices downward in the short-term, they could, in theory, FORCE MicroStrategy to puke BTC into the market with margin calls on their junk bond loans.

    A big player selling like that would absolutely tank prices thousands of dollars, even if it was a very short-term thing.

    So essentially, I am pointing out what I think is a future trading opportunity (i.e. buy when/if MicroStrategy is forced to puke some of their positions because of being overleveraged).
    Yes, if that happens, you will be right.

    I absolutely do not think anyone is manipulating the market. For me it is just another hoax like any of the popular hoaxes from digital age (I am nearly sure some of the hoaxes are in fact right, but much more important is to keep my own sanity of Occam's razor here than to find some big dark power behind each fart that humans collectively produce). The market is pretty much decentralised. Not in the way that there are no big players that can not move the market. They exist and they do it. But randomly, because no one knows if there is no bigger whale who is eating them. There is however no intention to play the market and especially not intention to push the market down, because shorting BTC is historically the most silly thing one can do ever just behind marriage without prenup (once I forced my employee into it with his new wife, the poor soul rather left.. me!!).

    It is just poor people who have no clue and money who talk about market manipulation all the time. Whales in fact are pretty conservative. To the point that they even do not claim shitcoins.

    But the short and long squeezes happen and happen naturally and already happened a lot of short squeezes during last weeks. Now the trillion dollar question is whether this was the last short squeeze or not.

    Likely I think what you describe can happen just naturally & it will be even greater buying opportunity. I just wanted to say that even price now is a great opportunity. It does not matter that much whether a nocoiner buys at 30K or 20K. BTC just became an official currency of a real country. I started to buy at 400, then 200, then 300. I still do not regret buying at 400.

    For people who already have a decent BTC portfolio definitely makes sense to wait if the last big drop (analogy from 6K to 3K during last halving) happens.
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  12. #10
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    I just want to say that the theory of 4 year cycles that I agree with and that was once again proven this year expects not just new ATH each 4 years followed by corrections. But that theory also comes with the idea that both tops and bottoms will flatten up.

    So far this is being played out perfectly.

    I will just recapitulate 2021:
    - BTC had ATH at approx 3x of previous ATH (which is significantly less than previous ATH which was approx 18x)
    - BTC posthalving rally also came much sooner after halving than the previous wave
    - Shitcoin rally followed, but again was much milder than what we saw during in early 2018 (some altcoins did not reach even their FIAT values of 2018; I think no old altcoin reached the top ratio against BTC of 2018 [correct me if I am wrong], for example ETH peak was 0.08 in 2021 unlike 0.15 in 2018 ).

    So, based on this, the recent price can really be the bottom. About the next progress or when next ATH will be reached it is hard to speculate. Too many variables. But if the top was so flat, the bottom should be shallow, but alcoins have to keep falling (just observe how the defi liquidity is now drying up so the only market proven real use case of alts is stopping to exist).
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    For me it's hard to believe that the bull run is already over.
    Looking at the past, it "should" last until autumn 2021 at least.
    And with institutional money flowing into crypto, I really don't think that there will be another 2-3 year bear market. As Sherlock said, cycles are flattening out.

    I also think that the 4 year cycles will get less and less important, because less and less bitcoins get mined and therefore the impact on the market by miners selling their BTC will be weaker and weaker.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strider1973 View Post
    For me it's hard to believe that the bull run is already over.
    Looking at the past, it "should" last until autumn 2021 at least.
    In this kind of period of time we can not underestimate fundamental things like statements of Musk or actions of China or who knows what. And miners! Big mining groups also can move with price as they want.
    Point is, that it is quite hard to predict something there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strider1973 View Post
    For me it's hard to believe that the bull run is already over.
    Looking at the past, it "should" last until autumn 2021 at least.
    I think you should consider the fact that more and more people "know" about the cycle and that at some point it should be over. That should naturally change those frames.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strider1973 View Post
    For me it's hard to believe that the bull run is already over.
    Looking at the past, it "should" last until autumn 2021 at least.
    And with institutional money flowing into crypto, I really don't think that there will be another 2-3 year bear market. As Sherlock said, cycles are flattening out.

    I also think that the 4 year cycles will get less and less important, because less and less bitcoins get mined and therefore the impact on the market by miners selling their BTC will be weaker and weaker.
    The cycles should forever exist. The halving has always effect for supply. People who took the 4 year cycles into consideration just flatten the cycles, but the cycles have an asymptote at x2 ! Because of the halving effect. Just the snowall on the top of x2 will diminish and the shitcoin rallies will disappear (unless some other altcoin takes over the BTC position).

    I absolutely think the run is over. Because the cycles do not just flatten, they also are speeding up a bit. So it is not a perfect 4 year cycle. Top in 2017 was like 19 months after halving. Now the top was less than 12 months after halving. Next time the top might be very close to the halving.

    Plus the hashrate is totally awful. Just look at hashrate growth during 2017. The hashrate must grow for price to keep rising. It is not just one way relation that higher price implies the higher hashrate. Like in it is usual in economy (e.g. wages do not just follow the GDP growth, but also support it because of consumption).

    In this kind of period of time we can not underestimate fundamental things like statements of Musk or actions of China or who knows what. And miners! Big mining groups also can move with price as they want.
    Point is, that it is quite hard to predict something there.
    This is not a fundament. Absolutely not. And it is a white noise. It is pretty much possible to predict things when white noise is around. LeBron might be 0/10 3pointers, but still things level up in the end. Fundamentals are really not social networks signals or random whale selling (it has nothing to do whether it is miner or not; miner in fact is pretty predictable, because they simply need to keep selling to cover the costs).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    miner in fact is pretty predictable, because they simply need to keep selling to cover the costs.
    I don't talk about small miners. And even small. I don't know any miner who is selling today. Most of them waiting because everybody believe that later they will sell it for better price.

    And yes agree "but still things level up in the end".
    But it can take some time. And till autumn 2021, don't have to be enough time to level up.

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    I'm not interested in buying any more crypto until Doge is rejected and dead and buried.
    If Dogecoin features on ANY list for ANY reason then it's all hype and bullsh!t

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    I like your thinking mate.

    Elon Musk has turned from being a person I admired for the companies he bought/got credit for and improved, to a person who I despise. It's like he's a Mr Burns who enjoys destroying things because he can. I used to think he was using his power for good, now I think he's using his power, ie. his money, because he enjoys that he can do whatever the **** he wants and manipulate the markets with a slap on the wrist, manipulate a real, true shitcoin to be one of the top 10 coins by market cap, when it has absolutely nothing going for it, unless you for some reason as an investor believe that meme value is some kind of variable to take into account.

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    If it were a normal stock, I could expect long-term investment, but looking at the recent situation, I feel that I cannot jump on it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Autosport Guru View Post
    I don't talk about small miners. And even small. I don't know any miner who is selling today. Most of them waiting because everybody believe that later they will sell it for better price.

    And yes agree "but still things level up in the end".
    But it can take some time. And till autumn 2021, don't have to be enough time to level up.
    So miners are pouting in 30 millions USD in electricity bills and they are not selling. 30 M per day. Ok.

    Now where they are taking the 30M / day? Christmas gifts? Pension of grandma?

    Big miners = those who do it for business, indeed sell.
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