Paddy Power pays out $650,000 on Obama early

[The Buzz]

It's election day in the United States, and Paddy Power is so confident that Barack Obama will be the winner in the presidential election that they've paid out $650,000 in bets on Obama before the polls have even closed.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Globa...aker-thinks-so

The payout falls in line with what the New York Times' Nate Silver is saying. His statistical models say there's a 91% chance of an Obama victory.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...r/nate-silver/

[lowrisk]

For the amount of publicity they'll get, it'll be more than worth it

[Nick.RevenueJet]

650 million cents, maybe.
"So far they've paid $650,000 to winners."

[JackTenSuited]

not if it was really $650 million, that's a lot of publicity!

[Anthony]

Wow that's a bold move.

[Anthony]

Yes it is $650,000, still that is a lot of money!

[The Buzz]

Thanks Anthony for fixing the thread. Buzzy is all atwitter with Election fever. Paddy Power has paid out $650K, not $650 million.

[lowrisk]

With all due respect to anybody who is American, I as a British person am quite sick of seeing the American election on every single news channel lol. Am I right in thinking that the British election isn't broadcast all over the TV in the US? When our election is on that is

[lots0]

With all due respect to anybody who is American, I as a British person am quite sick of seeing the American election on every single news channel lol. Am I right in thinking that the British election isn't broadcast all over the TV in the US? When our election is on that is

Fact is that US Politics/policies do majorly effect people in the UK... However the opposite is not true. UK Politics/policies don't effect many people in the US.

... And believe me, if you think your tired of the US political ads and "news" you should be here.. it has been a non-stop 24/7 bombardment of ads and Opinions and Pundents for the last several months... I for one am glad it will be over soon.

P.S. Don't for get to set your clocks for end of the world December 21, 2012...

[Nick.RevenueJet]

Fact is that US Politics/policies do majorly effect people in the UK... However the opposite is not true. UK Politics/policies don't effect many people in the US.

... And believe me, if you think your tired of the US political ads and "news" you should be here.. it has been a non-stop 24/7 bombardment of ads and Opinions and Pundents for the last several months... I for one am glad it will be over soon.

P.S. Don't for get to set your clocks for end of the world December 21, 2012...

It's been pretty hectic in Israel as well, but we're the 51st state so it shouldn't surprise anyone I guess.

[universal4]

The problem with doing this and making such a public spectacle of it is that press coversage such as this has the pottential to affect either how people vote, or whether they would vote at all.

Consider those that go to the polls, see the long lines and say to themselves,
"Self why should I wait in line to vote since my pick is has already won?"
OR
"Self, why should I vote against Obama since I always like to back a winner so I should change my vote?"

Rick
Universal4

Disclaimer: Although I tend to have regular conversations and arguments with myself, my voting decision was not based upon such a discussion.

[lots0]

Like to point out that Paddy Power was 100% correct.
Their early payout was just confidence in their data.

Just goes to show you.. don't listen to the pundits or the political polls.
When you want to know how an election is going to turn out... Check the Bookies.
The Bookies know whats what...

[lowrisk]

Yes they were correct, but come on, seriously - It was a 50/50 outcome, not like they have paid out on a 10% likelihood, and miraculously been right. Most people knew Obama would get in, and even if he hadn't, the money Paddy paid out would of been made back, by either the people who were paid out making further bets, or by the extra publicity it brought. That alone would be worth it in the long run. It's the same as last year, Betfred once again decided to pay out on Manchester United winning the league, and they lost, and it was the word on everyones mouths = PR.

[lots0]

well it didn't turn out 50/50...

And I trust the Books odds on these kinds of things far more than I trust the polls or the TV pundits.

In the US over one year before this election you could turn to any cable 'news' network and get a different 'outlook' on who was winning the presidential race and what the margins were... But they always looked at everything through their own political leanings.

If you watched Fox (before the election) - There was no doubt Romney was going to win by double digits.

If you watched MSNBC - There was no doubt Obama was going to win by huge margins.

If you watched CNN - They didn't have a clue on who was winning.

Throughout the whole presidential race, for me, the only good source of info on who was really winning the presidential race was the Books Odds(not just PP), funny how all the Books basically had the same odds throughout the entire presidential race... Obama never fell behind.

These Books have no political horse in the race... All they care about is picking the winner.

[casdirs]

I should have bet on Obama winning! Another missed opportunity to make some easy cash on the Internet lol