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  1. #1
    frogthegambler is offline Public Member
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    Default Predictions and conflict of interest

    Hi all,


    I have been reading this forum for a while now and it is a great source of information. My background is professional gambling using neural networks and also developing data to text and data to video AI. I am currently using these technologies to develop an automated gambling site. My main reason for developing this is to demonstrate the latest AI tech to produce and develop content without human intervention but obviously affiliate links would be useful for some revenue.


    A key issue I am interested in is posting of betting predictions/'tips'. I notice some of the sites and their twitter feeds (e.g. Goonersguide, Wonderpunter, Matchpredictions) have tips but they tend to not have any section on their websites showing the performance of those tips. Is this a deliberate policy to not monitor the performance? How do you deal with the conflict of interest of trying to provide winning tips for your viewers at the same time as profiting from revenue share? I can see how this would work for Betfair but not when revenue share is a percentage of money punters lose.

  2. #2
    overthehill is offline Public Member
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    It's not really a conflict of interest as people will also bet on their own selections and follow more than one tipster. It's a fact of life that most people lose money betting.
    In terms of people keeping a record of their tips I think most people only bother if they are actually charging for the tips.

  3. #3
    frogthegambler is offline Public Member
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    My thoughts were if following the predictions was demonstrated to be profitable that would attract more loyal traffic.

  4. #4
    Syndicate is offline Public Member
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    We have a business supplying data/information/odds to one of Europes biggest bookmakers. The vertical of that is operating our own betting syndicate, and several websites.

    1. The sites you mentioned (above) provide betting previews -- from my understanding their is no claim that these tips are profitable to followers.

    2. While these sites like you mention offer daily previews/tips, they also have lots of other interesting features that make them into strong affiliates.

    3. If you are going to provide profitable picks to winning professional punters, turnover commission from Asian handicap bookmakers/exchanges is the way to go.

    4. In any case, people who visit websites to obtain betting tips are not professional gamblers. While they might wish to be, in reality they are simply sheep who will bet at shorter odds than the initiator.

    5. Real professionals find their own information, and they bet Asian handicaps with bookmakers/exchanges/agents and brokers who take action.

    6.The longevity of betting with European bookmakers doesn't exist if you are a winner --- And, this is especially the case since Bookmakers are now asking for proof of funding with bank statements etc. While we may be able to still pick up the odd VIP account (from a serial loser), their are trust issues and the time you have given something back to the account holder it's not really worth it.

    If a website is good with it's tips, they can obviously sell them and thus generate revenue that way. If the same site promotes ''dynamic'' odds with bookmakers such has Pinnacle, SBO and IBC (were winning clients are accepted), then they can take turnover commission (0.1 to 0.3%) . As you can see, you need big sums!

    On a personal note, we make very little income through banners and they don't work for us with regards to Revenue share. However, that's because we are set up to give personal introductions. The reason for that is we know the syndicates/faces who bet professionally, and we help many through the legal issues and structuring - It's a fair swap!

    While traditional affiliates need large numbers to make it worthwhile, we work on turnover and with some punters position taking (ones who lose) - To give an example, one of our (into) traders has a turnover of 10-15 million a month (worth 10-20k for us). We have several others who bet over 5 million per month, and at least thirty who are at 1 million plus.

    At the end of the day you need to be savvy in any business. Copying what's been done a thousand times before isn't the key to success, because first moment advantage is long gone!

    I suppose in this case you can compare us to selling property in Knightsbridge or Mayfair, prices are high and we receive big commission from fewer sales. However, the biggest market is selling to the mass, which then becomes a numbers game.

    At the end of the day any business is about having a strategic focus. When we tried banners to well known sites it was worthless to us, but that's the way we are set up. However, the site helped us catch some decent fish through interacting, and it's been a good business card!



    Quote Originally Posted by frogthegambler View Post
    My thoughts were if following the predictions was demonstrated to be profitable that would attract more loyal traffic.
    Last edited by Syndicate; 17 July 2016 at 4:46 am. Reason: Because i couldn't understand a word i wrote - Too much Red vino and late at night!

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  6. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by frogthegambler View Post
    I notice some of the sites and their twitter feeds (e.g. Goonersguide, Wonderpunter, Matchpredictions) have tips but they tend to not have any section on their websites showing the performance of those tips.

    Is this a deliberate policy to not monitor the performance?
    I suspect that you need to look a little harder ... see if you can spot them here .. (HINT : Tipster Returns )
    http://www.goonersguide.com/english_football.php
    http://www.goonersguide.com/uefa_football.php
    http://www.goonersguide.com/spanish_football.php

    Every country tips summary page on our site has a similar table generated totaling the tips

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  8. #6
    frogthegambler is offline Public Member
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    Syndicate,


    Thanks for your detailed reply. I agree with everything you say about professionals being unable to bet outside BF/Asia. BF seemed to have a very restrictive policy on the countries that you gain revenue from and a time limit on revenue share. I noticed recently since the PP merger this may have changed with regards to territories.


    TheGooner,


    Apologies for not looking hard enough for the summaries. They are only one click away from your homepage so very poor research by me. Having looked a little more your site is the gold standard for sports betting affliates so you obviously know what works. I notice you have over 28,000 betting predictions/tips from dozens of writters. Cruiser and Auls have been tipping since 2005 and 2007 respectively. Is there any reason you do not list their records beyond the last season apart from NFL? Or their records for individual bookmakers?


    For instance looking at english_football I like Cruiser's tips for the EPL and Auls for non-EPL matches judging from 2015/2016 results. If I had the previous seasons I would be able decide if I wanted to follow them based on more evidence.


    Is more detail just not required for an affiliate site or is it there but I cannot find it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by frogthegambler View Post
    Syndicate,


    Thanks for your detailed reply. I agree with everything you say about professionals being unable to bet outside BF/Asia. BF seemed to have a very restrictive policy on the countries that you gain revenue from and a time limit on revenue share. I noticed recently since the PP merger this may have changed with regards to territories.


    TheGooner,


    Apologies for not looking hard enough for the summaries. They are only one click away from your homepage so very poor research by me. Having looked a little more your site is the gold standard for sports betting affliates so you obviously know what works. I notice you have over 28,000 betting predictions/tips from dozens of writters. Cruiser and Auls have been tipping since 2005 and 2007 respectively. Is there any reason you do not list their records beyond the last season apart from NFL? Or their records for individual bookmakers?


    For instance looking at english_football I like Cruiser's tips for the EPL and Auls for non-EPL matches judging from 2015/2016 results. If I had the previous seasons I would be able decide if I wanted to follow them based on more evidence.


    Is more detail just not required for an affiliate site or is it there but I cannot find it?
    We experimented with detailed recaps and performance results, however 99% of the traffic has no interest in it, this seems to be something reserved to those seeking paid tips or picks and with regards to conflict of interest many players will usually bet different combos Parlays, round robin etc along with going completely the opposite way to what we suggest or spending their winnings in the casino. In football season we usually have some seasoned pro's for the college area and it was very lucrative on our part and we usually push out the results via twitter, saying that nearly 70% of our traffic is now return visits we have built up quite a loyal following and a large amount of traffic comes in using our brand name as a keyword.

    After analyzing millions of page views you get an idea of what is working for your site, what is not and we base a lot of what we do around that

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