Today is deadline for US compliance to WTO ruling

[Alby]

If Antigua goes down the path of ignoring US patents and trademarks this issue must surely hit the front page news. Might be good for us to grab some of the media attention if possible?

http://www.boston.com/business/techn...ie_in_antigua/

[AmCan]

The US will comply with WTO ruling, sometime after the Sun goes supernova.

The US doesn't comply with any international rulings against it, the american right wing doesn't believe that any international ruling, even those that the US has signed treaties forming and/or accepting the deal. So as long as GB is president it will continue to be ignored and I doubt any democrat would care either.

Example:
The US owes Canada billions of dollars in duties that were collected on Canadian lumber (shakes and shingles for those who never have heard of this fight) in violation of NAFTA and WTO rules. The US refuses to accept the ruling or return the money to Canada. This is NAFTA, created by Ronald Reagan for managing trade between US, Mexico and Canada.

If a lumber issue with the largest US trading partner and the closest neighbor can be fought/stalled/ignored for 20 years, imagine how long this WTO ruling will be ignored?

Besides Alby, if the US complied, i think it would kill the affiliate end of this business, since advertisers in the US would jump at running "real money poker" ads and the US casinos would be able to participate and use their name recognition to quickly grab share. Of course for the big online guys, Party, 888, Golden Palace, would also suck up more oxygen.

i think "legally gray" is the best thing for affiliates. The only legal change i'd like to see, is a ruling against the Justice Dept., State Attornies General, etc. preventing them from issuing what is essentially "Prior Restraint" of advertisements. But as the folks at Casino City have learned, the US courts have upheld the government's right to use threats of arrest to chill the climate that we operate in.

[1CasinoListing]

Hi AmCan,

I don't think this will be completely true:

Besides Alby, if the US complied, i think it would kill the affiliate end of this business, since advertisers in the US would jump at running "real money poker" ads and the US casinos would be able to participate and use their name recognition to quickly grab share. Of course for the big online guys, Party, 888, Golden Palace, would also suck up more oxygen.

I think when you look at affiliate marketing in the main stream industries it is an effective marketing method. Yes, the bigger casinos might think they don't need us and they probably indeed don't need us. With bigger casinos I guess you are right with the guys you mentioned...

I think what will happen is that commission percentages will go down over time... which makes it indeed harder for a lot of us. But the smaller casinos will still need affiliate marketing to get their products sold. Certainly because they can not compete with the likes of the big online casinos or the big land based casinos going online. As they can not build on their brand as they are not mentioned in the same breath as the word online casino (unlike the big ones), they will have to use advertising methods to put their name out there.

If online gambling becomes legal in the US there will be no reason for the likes of Google and Overture to ban casino advertisements and you will not only have the big online casinos advertising in there but also the land based casinos with large budgets... which means more competition in that area and therefore less profitable for the smaller online casinos.

With regards to SEO... again they will have to compete with the bigger ones... who have more money to invest to optimise sites accordingly. They can not really afford to use blackhat techniques either as that could get them banned... Which means that again for the smaller casinos it would be more worth their while to invest in affiliate marketing. Yes it costs money... but there is less risk involved than PPC and it is all quantifiable as well... It is a lot harder to measure the effect of an offline marketing campaign (printed ad and tv/radio commercials) than straight forward affiliate marketing where one can pull out stats left, right and center because of the tracking of URLs in place.

But as I mentioned above, it is very well possible we will have to accept lower commission levels as they will have access to other advertising methods than affiliate marketing and will have higher costs in that area.

The marketing efforts of the big casinos could have a positive effect on the smaller casinos as well. Whilst they are doing the work and spending the money more people might start looking into casino gaming on the net... and look for alternative casinos that offer 'better deals' than the big ones. Again this would increase operating costs of the casinos which means again that we might have to accept lower commission levels.

Just some thoughts that approach things from a different perspective.

The thing is that affiliate marketing is about as big in the mainstream industries as it is in our industry.

[Alby]

AmCam,

I agree with most of your points and I think the US will just ignore the ruling, but for me the most interesting part of the article was the retaliatory action that Antigua is considering.

Antigua is considering retaliatory moves that could enable the tiny nation to punch above its weight. There's no appetite for slapping trade sanctions on US goods; that would hurt Antiguan companies and consumers far more than Americans. Instead, the country may refuse to enforce American patents and trademarks. This would make it possible for Antiguan-based companies to produce knock-offs of American intellectual property, like video and music recordings or computer software. Such a tactic would get the attention of major US firms like Microsoft Corp. and entertainment titan Time Warner Inc.

[TheCPA]

Interesting thoughts on both sides of the Regulation issue, both Pros, and Cons.

I tend to feel that regulation doesn't really hurt us.
From my real world experiences over the years, I finally learned that the time to run ads for my business was when the market was hot, not cold.

For years, my logic told me to run ads when it was slow, right? It kind of makes sense.
My competitiors did the same.
After several years of playing around with it, I finally realized that ALL of us running ads to a slow market was a waste of money.
IE: Fewer potential customers, and EVERYONE was beating up on them for biz!

Eventually, I cut way back during slow periods, and advertised like crazy during "Up" trends. Since most of my competitors were cash strapped from blitzing slow periods, I made out like a bandit during the peak periods.

Anyway, to shorten this up, the same thing sort applies to this biz, and how regulation might affect the industry.
My feeling is that regulation would create a massive flood of new players, and would lend credibility to the industry at the same time. That makes for a much better foundation than what we're standing on right now.

While there probably would be a decrease in percentages, just like Microgaming and Playtech battle it out online, and The land Casinos battle it out on land, ....the land casinos will be forced to compete online just like everyone else.

I think affiliates have the skills to hold search engines placements with ANYONE, and thus dramatically effect the volume of players a casino gets to their site. Land casinos aren't going to have a huge advantage in this area, and just throwing money at it won't negate the affiliate's ability to hold top spots. SEO is a skill, and a lot of you guys out there are damn good at it. It's a knowledge driven skill, and while they will BUY that knowledge, the land casinos won't be able to knock the affiliates out, IMO.
In fact, what's another 100 or 200 sites to compete against in the grand scheme of what we do right now?

That said, with a large influx of new players coming into the market, the land based casinos will have to market online just like we do now. Conversely, we can market in new, and affordable ways that we can't really do right now. At least I don't, because I won't run local ads, etc.

They may not have to pay quite as much, however, the increased volume should more than compensate for that while legitimizing the industry simultaneously. I also think regulation stablizes affiliate revenues, and drives the **** casinos out as well.

The bottom line for example is that I'd rather have 15% of 2 million dollars, {300k}, as opposed to 25% of 1 million. {250k}
Who knows for sure, but that's sort of how I see it happening if regulation does come to the US.
If enough Land Casinos come online, the competition between them could be fierce.

We might wind up doubling our Net Revenue figures, and get a higher percentage to boot!

[Ziggy]

I like your way of thinking, CPA.