View Poll Results: What do you think a bitcoin will be worth in 2030?

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  • USD $1,000,000 or more.

    3 12.00%
  • USD $750,000 to $USD $999,999.

    0 0%
  • USD $600,000 to $USD $699,999.

    1 4.00%
  • USD $550,000 to $USD $599,999.

    1 4.00%
  • USD $500,000 to $USD $549,999.

    1 4.00%
  • USD $450,000 to $USD $499,999.

    0 0%
  • USD $400,000 to $USD $449,999.

    1 4.00%
  • USD $350,000 to $USD $399,999.

    0 0%
  • USD $300,000 to $USD $349,999.

    0 0%
  • USD $250,000 to $USD $299,999.

    1 4.00%
  • USD $200,000 to $USD $249,999.

    3 12.00%
  • USD $150,000 to $USD $199,999.

    4 16.00%
  • USD $100,000 to $USD $149,999.

    4 16.00%
  • USD $50,000 to $USD $99,999.

    2 8.00%
  • USD $1 to $USD $49,999.

    3 12.00%
  • Other (please share in a post)

    1 4.00%
Results 1 to 18 of 18
  1. #1
    MichaelCorfman's Avatar
    MichaelCorfman is offline GPWA Executive Director
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    Question What do you think a bitcoin will be worth in 2030?

    With the value of a bitcoin flirting with USD $75,000 now, more than twice the price six months ago, I figure it is time for a new bitcoin price poll.

    If I look back to April 11, 2017, when the price was USD $1,220, buzzy made a post based on an article published by Business Insider, where Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith laid out their case for why they felt it would be "reasonable" for each bitcoin could be worth as much as $500,000 by 2030. You can see that post here:

    Could each bitcoin be worth $500,000 by 2030?.

    Inspired by that post, the next day I posted the following poll in the GPWA forum:

    What are the odds bitcoins will be worth nothing in 2030?

    There have been 54 votes cast in that poll, and of those votes, just over half felt bitcoins would most likely survive, most certainly survive or definitely survive until 2030. Well, we are more than half way to 2030 since I posted that poll, and the price of bitcoin is just over $73,000 as I make this post, 59.93 times what it was back on April 11, 2017. If it grows another 6.85 times, it will pass the USD $500,000 mark.

    So, for this week's poll I ask what you think the price of a bitcoin will be in 2030. Besides voting in the poll, be sure to share your thoughts about the changes in the price of bitcoin over the past few years, and what you think the future holds.

    Michael
    GPWA Executive Director, Casino City CEO, Friend to the Village Idiot
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  3. #2
    Sherlock's Avatar
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    April 11, 2007
    In 2007 bitcoin did not exist.

    The question is not the value of BTC in 2030, but the value of USD in 2030.

    In 2030 USA will be involved in some pretty nasty wars and wars are always inflationary. The value of bitcoin will be tied to inflation+halving premiums.

    For example today BTC is on ATH, but in real purchasing power it has to go higher to reach the real ATH.
    If you talk to God, you are praying; If God talks to you, you have schizophrenia.

  4. #3
    MichaelCorfman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    In 2007 bitcoin did not exist.
    I meant April 11, 2017, not April 11, 2007. I've now corrected my original post to fix that mistake.

    Michael
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  5. #4
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    Far too many bands - anyone picking a particular band is simply guessing there is no way to be THAT accurate about the future price of a new asset class that is only just becoming available to the mainstream.

    Instead try :

    1. Zero / banned
    2. Under $10K
    3. 10K to 100K
    4. $100K to $500K
    5. $500K to $1M
    6. Over $1M

    And also ask - given that the average Salary in the US is $60K at the end of 2023 - what do you think it will be by 2030 ?

    ------------

    Here is my take.

    Today BTC is roughly equivalent to 1 years work for the US worker ($70K)
    I expect it to be worth 5-10X in 2030 ...

    So that's US salary at $80K and BTC at $400K to $800K.

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  7. #5
    moizez is offline Private Member
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    1BTC will be worth 1BTC in 2030.

    In $? 300k+.

  8. #6
    baldidiot is offline Private Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelCorfman View Post
    With the value of a bitcoin flirting with USD $75,000 now, more than twice the price six months ago, I figure it is time for a new bitcoin price poll.
    From the other thread in 2017:

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    The 500K is not completely crazy estimation, so the future value of Bitcoins might be close to .15 x 500K = 75K
    Bloody hell, Sherlock, should pay more attention to you!
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  10. #7
    Sherlock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    Far too many bands - anyone picking a particular band is simply guessing there is no way to be THAT accurate about the future price of a new asset class that is only just becoming available to the mainstream.

    Instead try :

    1. Zero / banned
    2. Under $10K
    3. 10K to 100K
    4. $100K to $500K
    5. $500K to $1M
    6. Over $1M

    And also ask - given that the average Salary in the US is $60K at the end of 2023 - what do you think it will be by 2030 ?

    ------------

    Here is my take.

    Today BTC is roughly equivalent to 1 years work for the US worker ($70K)
    I expect it to be worth 5-10X in 2030 ...

    So that's US salary at $80K and BTC at $400K to $800K.
    I generally agree, but Bitcoin can not be banned. I clearly remember an article where FBI wanted to ban bitcoin 10+ years ago when it was only used at darkmarkets and they realised it is impossible.

    Because what is a "bitcoin ban"? Ban on mining? Ban on holding? Ban on exchanges? Ban in all countries worldwide, which are not able to agree about simple things like planet devastation? Ban on something that people have in portfolios?

    More broadly. What is bitcoin? How you define bitcoin? If by code that made Satoshi, then it is not possible, because ethe code is constantly changing and with each block it will keep changing. If this approach is chosen then the blockchain closest to the Satoshi code is BCH not BTC.

    If bans on crypto start, then the war on designer drugs will not be the most ridiculous. Already enough about tornado cash.

    Either way anything like 0-25K is one band. Bitcoin can not be 25K. 25K=0. To have 25K in 2030 means that bitcoin spirals down massively and causes the death spiral where miners sell and scale down mining, price goes down, people flee, miners mine even less etc, so the network security is breached and the currency collapses. I still think that if BTC has to fail, then this is the most likely scenario of POW disaster.

    ------------------------------

    There are two scenarios now for the terminal stage of world economy. High inflation or deflation (or combination). So 80K in 2030 is very unlikely as average salary IMHO.

    Btc going up 5-10x in real terms is a realistic estimation, but it can be much higher and much lower, because it really depends how fast the destruction of world economy and big wars will happen. The equation that the worse for the economy the better for crypto is long term valid (regardless periods when BTC follows stock market).

    ----------------------------------------

    Also if price goes up 10x, then energy consumption will be 10x. It will be roughly consumption of Germany, France and Canada combined. Which is not totally correct statement. Bitcoin will use sources put into the energy equal to those three countries. Because it is not the energy for POW that backs the network, it is the sources put into the energy. E.g. if there is discovered some cheap green energy in some forgotten part of the world (e.g. 10x cheaper), then the amount of energy needed for equilibrium for 10x price hike will be 100x more energy.

    TLDR we will hear about Green bitcoin as defense against climate fanatics, but it will be a pure greenwashing.
    If you talk to God, you are praying; If God talks to you, you have schizophrenia.

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  12. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldidiot View Post
    From the other thread in 2017:



    Bloody hell, Sherlock, should pay more attention to you!
    Thanks. I actually by accident hit all 3 previous pre-halving estimations (were in 1K, 20K, 75K range).
    For this period I was thinking 140K, but it was before inflation kicked in. = I was sure I will start selling at 140K, but now I am not so sure that it will be high enough.
    In 2030 even the end of bitcoin is not completely out of range, but probably too early for that.

    I would say maybe 50% chance for some big economic change=disaster until 2030.

    Everything on what we construct our world will be wiped out during next decades.

    The battle between POW and POS did not start yet. POW of bitcoin is IMHO way too secure and therefore way too costly. ETH supply is way too unpredictable, but we see a defaltional war between ETH and BTC now.

    Monetary theory or rather rule of thumb says that ideal currency inflation is stable 1-2%.

    In few weeks BTC will drop under 1% inflation and ETH is currently deflationary, but unlike bitcoin ETH inflation/deflation is not constant and predictable. This setup in era of high fiat inflation is probably good for adoption of crypto as safe haven, but future macroeconomical implications if crypto is more adopted are unknown. (For the record: 10x up for BTC would make theoretical market cap of BTC higher than gold and real market cap even higher, because I believe BTC is more liquid than gold.)

    There are too many variables now. In crypto jargon, the economy and reality is being forked atm.
    If you talk to God, you are praying; If God talks to you, you have schizophrenia.

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  14. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldidiot View Post
    Bloody hell, Sherlock, should pay more attention to you!
    I think a lot of us did. He was so helpful and knowledgeable back in the day (and still is!). It was like having a wise professor on this forum. My wallets thank him.

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  16. #10
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    Thx but you can just read Hayes https://cryptohayes.medium.com/, who is writing the same.

    There are several advantages:
    - his English is way better
    - he is black, so not racist like me
    - he has time to write from a chalet in Hokkaido, which causes me outbursts of envy, because all I do is kneeling in mud on the opposite side of the world, while endlessly constructing my own chalets. because all the money (fiat or crypto) nowadays apparently do not persuade people to work

    Which means that the next thing with endless potential during next decades is to be able to do some manual work like construction.

    Even the biggest idiot who I know, who bought BTC just 2-3 years ago and who bought LTC 7 years ago when my wife told him to buy BTC, is now rich enough to buy THE T E S L A. So when even retards will be rich from crypto, it is obvious something is wrong.
    If you talk to God, you are praying; If God talks to you, you have schizophrenia.

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  18. #11
    tufty is offline Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Even the biggest idiot who I know, who bought BTC just 2-3 years ago and who bought LTC 7 years ago when my wife told him to buy BTC, is now rich enough to buy THE T E S L A. So when even retards will be rich from crypto, it is obvious something is wrong.
    The last time that happened a lot of my fellow retards fell off the edge of a cliff.

  19. #12
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    Wish I knew a year ago where it is today let alone by 2030.
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  20. #13
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    Some rebuttal ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    I generally agree, but Bitcoin can not be banned.
    I agree but you've gotta cover the extreme options to get votes.

    2-3 years ago I could have seen the EU / USA preventing BTC entering the banking system - throttling the fiat channels.
    Not today. The acceptance of US ETFs changes that landscape in the US. And the EU won't be left out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    So 80K in 2030 is very unlikely as average salary IMHO.
    We will see. I don't expect salaries to keep pace with inflation - especially in retail / service work.
    5% raise a year for 6 years is 30% = thats 60K + 18K = 78 .. I rounded to 80K.
    I'm comfortable with my maths

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Either way anything like 0-25K is one band. Bitcoin can not be 25K. 25K=0.
    Again - your opinion - I don't disagree myself - but this would allow people who think it's a bubble to vote.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Also if price goes up 10x, then energy consumption will be 10x.
    I am not convinced about this yet - I am interested to see how this next halving plays out.
    One factor is the slice in rewards will result in a miner shakeout - reducing hash rates and power usage.
    Additionally, ever improving chips, reducing size and power draw may also make for efficient mining and a slow rise in power usage.

    IF I look at a chart of hash rate and BTC price there is not a specific matching correlation.
    Similarly I see estimates of BTC mining usage increasing - but not correlated to BTC price.
    All are increasing yes - but Hash Rates are not directly related - and power usage is becoming more efficient every season.

    Always interesting to read your insights Sherlock !!

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  22. #14
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    2-3 years ago I could have seen the EU / USA preventing BTC entering the banking system - throttling the fiat channels.
    Not today. The acceptance of US ETFs changes that landscape in the US. And the EU won't be left out.
    They still throttle the channels. It is amazing that crypto still grew with the headwind. My wild guess is that in the USA is small influential group of crypto-rich who are smart enough to get things moving.

    We will see. I don't expect salaries to keep pace with inflation - especially in retail / service work.
    5% raise a year for 6 years is 30% = thats 60K + 18K = 78 .. I rounded to 80K.
    I'm comfortable with my maths
    I also do not think that real wages will grow. I just expect much higher inflation + even more expansive monetary policy => massive at least running inflation. 10% inflation in 6 years is 77%. 15% is 131%. In the inflationary scenario that is inevitable in case of wars, the inflation will be higher.

    The higher the running inflation or hyperinflation, the more BTC/POW coin will not just copy it through prices of energy. Then even the safe haven factor will bring premium.

    And that is not all. The hyperinflation does not have to be everywhere. It is enough just somewhere. Look at Argentina, where inflation is 100-200%. Any saver can obviously not use local currency.

    What they do? Now they buy USD. But what USD is doing? Everything to lose their privileged status of world reserve currency through seizing Russian assets for example. If more wars happen this can full of worms was opened. Having a reserve currency status is kind of binary state. Like with confidence. You either have it or not. Like with rogue affiliate programs. The question is when will USD lose their reserve currency status. Because then there is just gold and crypto.

    IF I look at a chart of hash rate and BTC price there is not a specific matching correlation.
    Similarly I see estimates of BTC mining usage increasing - but not correlated to BTC price.
    All are increasing yes - but Hash Rates are not directly related - and power usage is becoming more efficient every season.
    There is and is not the correlation.

    On chart indeed there is no correlation. The only thing that is clearly seen on chart price vs hashrate is that cryptowinter always comes with drop in hashrate after halving.

    But the new/more efficient chips make the chart very hard to read. We would need to split it somehow to chart of all kinds of mining machines and how they are phased out.

    This is why I wrote that in fact not the energy will go out as much as price. But monetary sources put into the energy will always rise as much as the price.

    The mining is competitive. So the margin that the miners are making on average is tending to zero as is known from perfect competition economic models. That means that if miners make a lot of money, they keep buying HW and energy, until they rise the hashrate and bitcoin is divided into more machines and for the same amount of energy is produced less bitcoins.

    Therefore if price goes up 2x, miners can invest also 2x to be even. If price goes up 10x, they can also invest 10x more.

    So for example if price of btc goes up 3x but energy goes up 6x, then is possible that hashrate even drops.

    Important in POW is not the energy, but the money invested through the energy.

    Still all talking, all words, all models are just a simplification. Therefore when someone says price and hashrate are 100% correlated, it means ceteris paribus.

    Last note: if there are some extremely potent chips that need just a little energy, let's say 20% of current chips, then actually miners need to buy 5x more energy to reach the equilibrium. DO not forget, the amount of money used to buy the energy must be constant! Indeed there is a simplification like prices of those machines, that likely will be more expensive than previous ones (e.g. the fixed costs are more and more important than variable costs) but hopefully you get the point. In short if price goes up 10x, then the energy consumption can go up even more than 10x. And it will go there unless miners spend most of their money for hardware and R&D of the HW.
    If you talk to God, you are praying; If God talks to you, you have schizophrenia.

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  24. #15
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    A lot of things can happen in those 6 years. Wars, economy changes, value change of dollar, ...

    If there are no very big changes in the world I predict it will grow slowly, add inflation and have some drops and pikes. My estimate is around 250k.

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    By the looks of it always going down and up, I don't see why it shouldn't, but it's just a gamble.

    Don't put all your eggs in one basket, invest in various crypto currencies if you're planning of doing so.

  26. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by sveps View Post
    By the looks of it always going down and up, I don't see why it shouldn't, but it's just a gamble

    Don't put all your eggs in one basket, invest in various crypto currencies if you're planning of doing so.
    Buying various sh1tcoins is exactly putting all eggs into one basket.

    The main reason why to buy BTC, which is technically inferior to any other altcoin, is that BTC is something that is going much less up and down than any other crypto.

    Moreover the view that Bitcoin is volatile against fiat is just a tunnel vision of legacy mind. The same volatility that BTC has against USD has also USD against BTC. While USD is constantly losing value at average pace of high tens of percent per year for over a decade.

    Everything is nowadays a gamble. The biggest gamble is to NOT HAVE A Bitcoin. To not have a bitcoin/crypto is a bet on reality that will not change and world will remain as it is. Which is a foolish bet.

    What are the options to park assets? To stocks? After we see how corporations like Entain steal everything they touch. Hurting not just business partners like affiliates, but also the shareholders. Why should be different corps different than those rogue ones we see on our own eyes?

    It is just a foolish belief that this world is generally ok, just we are having business in a rogue niche.
    If you talk to God, you are praying; If God talks to you, you have schizophrenia.

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    I'll just interject a small observation.
    Probably a lot of partners from GPWA and in general wouldn't be more strongly interested in cryptocurrencies if it weren't for the fact that they get their commissions this way, as for many operators it's the only method of payment for partners.

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