What do you think, is there a recession around the corner?

[Nenad]

If you read news sources, there are talks about market uncertainty and more discussion happening around the word recession.

Also if you look at the google trends there was like no popularity for the kw "recession", from 2004, and at the end of 2007, the popularity was 100, just before all started in 2008.

So do you believe that is new recession is coming, and if so, when do you think it will start?

[Cash Bonus]

I've recently heard rumours about a recession about to take place in the near future, but I don't think it will happen because the last couple of times that they predicted this over the last few years, nothing has happened. I think this is just another false alarm and nothing to worry about.

[universal4]

There have been a few predicting a recession the last few days because of the upset in the US Bond market and the "inverted yield curve". In simple terms this is when the 10 year bond rate falls below the 2 year rate.

This has happened very few times that a recession did not follow, but it is not 100%.

Part of the problem is, if enough analysts keep predicting it, we could see one and it could end up here faster. The handful of times this curve preceded a recession, it usually happened with 24 months.

This time, who knows.

Rick
Universal4

[Moonlight Cat]

I affraid that next big financial crisis come from Asia this time. I mean China. China is the second / first world economy have big problems now. The economic growth is slow, and nobody know the real China national debt. The big but unknown part of China national debt hide behind LGFV - (local government financing vehicles). This may be very big bubble. Only at this year LGFV released new bonds at $127.000.000.000, they try to revive the market, but we still don't see strong economic growth. The crisis in China will be as H-bomb for world economy.

I think market feel this. The strong indicator is US Bond "inversion" as Rick say above.

[sweetbet]

The IMF has been warning about a possible global financial crisis for some time now. It's coming alright, and most of us won't see it until it's right on our doorstep.

I like the way this guy explains it.
https://twitter.com/Paisan26849860/s...16283779321857

[Sherlock]

Yes, it is coming.

Recession is defined as negative growth of 2 consecutive quarters. Germany already has one. So one more and that is it.

But I believe something bigger is looming:

1. Central banks are out of ammo, because interest rates are already way too low
2. Countries are already in confrontational mood
3. Economy is even more than decade ago relying on debt and for the recession to be over, the debt must be somehow minimised, so the only way to get out of recession is to go through depression <- that will mean that even the political systems, that are in digital era more fragile, will most likely fail; this will be worse than 2008/2009, because in 2008/9 everybody was scared to do the right things [The right thing in 2008/9 was to switch fully to lower taxed, hardcore capitalism, that would be harsh to poor, but that would fully allow to develop unregulated digital economy]
4. Brexit

I do not know if it is coming right now, but this is the terminal stage of cancer.
I am buying popcorn with bitcorn and going to make my own children in nowhere. Not that I think that people will immediately start shooting neighbours with machine guns (after all until now I lived in country where it is normal even when economy goes up). It is just very annoying to see people around denying reality. It will be much worse when things go wrong.

[casinobonusguy]

In my area homes have dropped $150,000 or so in past 18 months it is not a issue for us as we bought our home long time ago but for first time I heard of a neighbour losing their home.Every one on my street has $100000 plus in cars on drive way ,people seem to borrow for everything.I think you can survive a recession if you plan for stuff ,in 2008 I lost 42% of my investments but we sat on sidelines and did nothing.My 80 year old father is 100% in cash now so it depends on your age how you plan for it.

[Sherlock]

Not many people now sit literally on cash, because there is no cash. Money in banks are just IOUs. Even cash societies are very much cashless nowadays. Having cash as notes is dangerous, because you are automatically suspicious for doing bad things (like gambling..).

The banks will get the hardest hits if recession comes. There will be payout restrictions, capital freezing. Or hyperinflation. There is no flawless strategy for the dystopia that is coming. Everybody will be hit hard in some way. I believe BTC will skyrocket, so I keep sitting on it, but no money help much to live in a failing society.

[Former Member 14]

Money in banks are just IOUs.

Cash, was once backed by Gold Holdings. These days, that Gold, is a fantasy.

[PROFRBcom]

There have been a few predicting a recession the last few days because of the upset in the US Bond market and the "inverted yield curve". In simple terms this is when the 10 year bond rate falls below the 2 year rate.

The 3 month/10 year has been inverted for months and it is a more solid predictor of recession.

There is also SEVENTEEN TRILLION dollars worth of NEGATIVE YIELDING debt floating around right now. The world is insane.

[Sherlock]

Even more insane is that those negative rates are now a norm. Some countries in Europe, for example Denmark, already have negative rates on mortgages.

[casinobonusguy]

Sherlock , my dad does not have his mattress stuffed just High interest savings

Not many people now sit literally on cash, because there is no cash. Money in banks are just IOUs. Even cash societies are very much cashless nowadays. Having cash as notes is dangerous, because you are automatically suspicious for doing bad things (like gambling..).

The banks will get the hardest hits if recession comes. There will be payout restrictions, capital freezing. Or hyperinflation. There is no flawless strategy for the dystopia that is coming. Everybody will be hit hard in some way. I believe BTC will skyrocket, so I keep sitting on it, but no money help much to live in a failing society.

[Nenad]

I wish it's true what you're saying! But somehow I do believe that it's going to happen in the near future.

The IMF has been warning about a possible global financial crisis for some time now. It's coming alright, and most of us won't see it until it's right on our doorstep.

I like the way this guy explains it.
https://twitter.com/Paisan26849860/s...16283779321857

I think you're just right! We won't see it until it strike.

Even more insane is that those negative rates are now a norm. Some countries in Europe, for example Denmark, already have negative rates on mortgages.

It is insane! How would anyone explain that?

[Sherlock]

Sherlock , my dad does not have his mattress stuffed just High interest savings

High interest? You mean the -0.2% offered by my bank instead of -0.4% standard?

[Sherlock]

It is insane! How would anyone explain that?

How to explain insanity? Like when horse being a consul or stuffing people to cattle-wagons and gassing them. It is simply real. Once someone has the power, like Skybet affiliates, GVC or Paddy, they will abuse it to the point where it is possible and beyond.

Central banks realised they have the power to manipulate the interest rates, so they started to use it. Even Alan Greenspan did not believe what was happening in 90's will work (as shown by Adam Curtis). But it worked and it was nothing compared to last decade. But it still "works". The interest rate that is set by central banks is the benchmark. Commercial banks must pay to central bank for deposits of money so it is cheaper for them to issue mortgages with negative interest rate in some cases (still rare). Some banks indeed hoard the cash, but that has the limit as well. In any way hoarding cash does not bring any profit, so banks suffer now, because they are not making money and have high costs.

It is the same situation like the real socialism that ended in 89-91. The only difference is that by socialism the state dictated prices (of goods, labor and capital) - the prices were just numbers on paper, constant in every shop, and the giant primitive computers were counting the demand and supply and from that also the prices came out. That was called central planning. And indeed it did not work, however it survived for incredibly long time as critics forget.

Now the price of money ( = the interest) is being dictated. But it is the similar situation as during socialism.

During central planing the computers and people at central plan buro made many mistakes. Sometimes coffee was too expensive, so it was something exclusive. Sometimes sugar was too cheap, so people fed pigs with sugar. Sometimes they miscounted the demand for bicycles, so the economy run out of bicycles, because not enough was built and because the prices were fixed (normally price would go up), there was the blackmarket for bicycles [all those examples are real and I remember them]. This looks insane, it is insane, but people simply accepted that reality and wasted their lives in queues and bitching on system that they created. People are still people. They keep repeating the same patterns. Now we are in similar situation, but because the economy is debt driven, some crazy people at power manipulate the interest rate and buy votes with it.

Because the crazy thing here is that low or negative interest is in short term good for consumers who then do not revolt. It is very bad for economy overall, because no money is effectively invested to the niches that would bring high ROI. So what will be really needed is not done. Indeed it is not bad for every venture. Just the allocation of sources is completely off. It was great for gambling. The golden decade that we had is here not because people want to gamble that much or that we are so great webmasters. It is here because of printing money and low interest rates. It will never repeat and I will talk about it hopefully to my grandchildren by campfire and they will think that we were insane or that I am senile.

Yes, we are insane. And it is insane to think this will go on forever. It will end badly and it will end with the first crisis from now on.

[Soplica]

Be calm, the ECB in 12 september Will unleash a "package to stimulate the economy"

More interest cut

[Former Member 14]

Even if there is... after 19 years in this gig, I'm yet to see a recession affect my commissions.

If anything, I've seen them rise.

Gambling and Porn, the two industries which seem to be recession proof

[Former Member 14]

In my area homes have dropped $150,000 or so in past 18 months it is not a issue for us as we bought our home long time ago but for first time I heard of a neighbour losing their home.Every one on my street has $100000 plus in cars on drive way ,people seem to borrow for everything.I think you can survive a recession if you plan for stuff ,in 2008 I lost 42% of my investments but we sat on sidelines and did nothing.My 80 year old father is 100% in cash now so it depends on your age how you plan for it.

I haven't had a credit card since 23, when I get myself up the sh#t with one. Was hard to manage without when younger, but as the years go on, and you ONLY buy what you can afford to pay for, it slowly gets easier, to live without needing banks and such. Granted if I wasn't an affiliate for years, and only working for a salary then things would likely be a lot different. But that's not the case, so it's a moot point.

Everything I have, cars, house the whole lot, I own outright. If needed be I could survive on very little cash.

How to explain insanity? Like when horse being a consul or stuffing people to cattle-wagons and gassing them. It is simply real. Once someone has the power, like Skybet affiliates, GVC or Paddy, they will abuse it to the point where it is possible and beyond.

At his best, man is the noblest of animals; separated from law and justice he is the worse - Aristotle

[baldidiot]

Even more insane is that those negative rates are now a norm. Some countries in Europe, for example Denmark, already have negative rates on mortgages.

I was reading a 'fact check' article the other day that was saying danish mortgages don't work like most other countries, so it's not the same as a negative mortgage rate in the US or UK.

Something to do with them being treated more like bonds with a fixed management fee paid to the bank in addition to the interest (1% I think it said). So the bank is still charging 1% annually, with the interesting being based on whatever rate the bonds are trading at (which is currently negative).

I only skimmed it quickly so could have gotten the wrong end of the stick. Maybe someone from denmark could chime in with how it works?

[allaboutthebets]

I haven't had a credit card since 23, when I get myself up the sh#t with one. Was hard to manage without when younger, but as the years go on, and you ONLY buy what you can afford to pay for, it slowly gets easier, to live without needing banks and such. Granted if I wasn't an affiliate for years, and only working for a salary then things would likely be a lot different. But that's not the case, so it's a moot point.

Everything I have, cars, house the whole lot, I own outright. If needed be I could survive on very little cash.




At his best, man is the noblest of animals; separated from law and justice he is the worse - Aristotle

More people should think like that. I have friends who live well beyond their means. Buying expensive cars, TVs holidays they can't afford