Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 75
  1. #1
    Nenad is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    June 2019
    Posts
    547
    Thanks
    311
    Thanked 153 Times in 128 Posts

    Default What do you think, is there a recession around the corner?

    If you read news sources, there are talks about market uncertainty and more discussion happening around the word recession.

    Also if you look at the google trends there was like no popularity for the kw "recession", from 2004, and at the end of 2007, the popularity was 100, just before all started in 2008.

    So do you believe that is new recession is coming, and if so, when do you think it will start?

  2. #2
    Cash Bonus's Avatar
    Cash Bonus is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    4,086
    Thanks
    8,226
    Thanked 2,523 Times in 1,805 Posts

    Default

    I've recently heard rumours about a recession about to take place in the near future, but I don't think it will happen because the last couple of times that they predicted this over the last few years, nothing has happened. I think this is just another false alarm and nothing to worry about.

  3. #3
    universal4's Avatar
    universal4 is online now Forum Administrator
    Join Date
    July 2003
    Location
    Courage is being scared to death...and saddling up anyway. John Wayne
    Posts
    28,330
    Thanks
    2,301
    Thanked 7,986 Times in 5,042 Posts

    Default

    There have been a few predicting a recession the last few days because of the upset in the US Bond market and the "inverted yield curve". In simple terms this is when the 10 year bond rate falls below the 2 year rate.

    This has happened very few times that a recession did not follow, but it is not 100%.

    Part of the problem is, if enough analysts keep predicting it, we could see one and it could end up here faster. The handful of times this curve preceded a recession, it usually happened with 24 months.

    This time, who knows.

    Rick
    Universal4

  4. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to universal4 For This Useful Post:

    Cash Bonus (16 August 2019), larson (9 September 2019), Moonlight Cat (16 August 2019), Nenad (18 August 2019)

  5. #4
    Moonlight Cat's Avatar
    Moonlight Cat is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    November 2008
    Posts
    1,979
    Blog Entries
    1
    Thanks
    1,236
    Thanked 1,161 Times in 671 Posts

    Default

    I affraid that next big financial crisis come from Asia this time. I mean China. China is the second / first world economy have big problems now. The economic growth is slow, and nobody know the real China national debt. The big but unknown part of China national debt hide behind LGFV - (local government financing vehicles). This may be very big bubble. Only at this year LGFV released new bonds at $127.000.000.000, they try to revive the market, but we still don't see strong economic growth. The crisis in China will be as H-bomb for world economy.

    I think market feel this. The strong indicator is US Bond "inversion" as Rick say above.

  6. #5
    sweetbet's Avatar
    sweetbet is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    November 2012
    Posts
    2,819
    Blog Entries
    5
    Thanks
    898
    Thanked 1,574 Times in 1,087 Posts

    Default

    The IMF has been warning about a possible global financial crisis for some time now. It's coming alright, and most of us won't see it until it's right on our doorstep.

    I like the way this guy explains it.
    https://twitter.com/Paisan26849860/s...16283779321857

  7. #6
    Sherlock's Avatar
    Sherlock is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    December 2013
    Location
    WC
    Posts
    4,213
    Thanks
    1,275
    Thanked 3,306 Times in 1,841 Posts

    Default

    Yes, it is coming.

    Recession is defined as negative growth of 2 consecutive quarters. Germany already has one. So one more and that is it.

    But I believe something bigger is looming:

    1. Central banks are out of ammo, because interest rates are already way too low
    2. Countries are already in confrontational mood
    3. Economy is even more than decade ago relying on debt and for the recession to be over, the debt must be somehow minimised, so the only way to get out of recession is to go through depression <- that will mean that even the political systems, that are in digital era more fragile, will most likely fail; this will be worse than 2008/2009, because in 2008/9 everybody was scared to do the right things [The right thing in 2008/9 was to switch fully to lower taxed, hardcore capitalism, that would be harsh to poor, but that would fully allow to develop unregulated digital economy]
    4. Brexit

    I do not know if it is coming right now, but this is the terminal stage of cancer.
    I am buying popcorn with bitcorn and going to make my own children in nowhere. Not that I think that people will immediately start shooting neighbours with machine guns (after all until now I lived in country where it is normal even when economy goes up). It is just very annoying to see people around denying reality. It will be much worse when things go wrong.

  8. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Sherlock For This Useful Post:

    drifter8 (19 August 2019), Moonlight Cat (17 August 2019)

  9. #7
    casinobonusguy is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    October 2006
    Posts
    1,996
    Thanks
    162
    Thanked 1,005 Times in 615 Posts

    Default

    In my area homes have dropped $150,000 or so in past 18 months it is not a issue for us as we bought our home long time ago but for first time I heard of a neighbour losing their home.Every one on my street has $100000 plus in cars on drive way ,people seem to borrow for everything.I think you can survive a recession if you plan for stuff ,in 2008 I lost 42% of my investments but we sat on sidelines and did nothing.My 80 year old father is 100% in cash now so it depends on your age how you plan for it.

  10. The Following User Says Thank You to casinobonusguy For This Useful Post:

    Moonlight Cat (17 August 2019)

  11. #8
    Sherlock's Avatar
    Sherlock is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    December 2013
    Location
    WC
    Posts
    4,213
    Thanks
    1,275
    Thanked 3,306 Times in 1,841 Posts

    Default

    Not many people now sit literally on cash, because there is no cash. Money in banks are just IOUs. Even cash societies are very much cashless nowadays. Having cash as notes is dangerous, because you are automatically suspicious for doing bad things (like gambling..).

    The banks will get the hardest hits if recession comes. There will be payout restrictions, capital freezing. Or hyperinflation. There is no flawless strategy for the dystopia that is coming. Everybody will be hit hard in some way. I believe BTC will skyrocket, so I keep sitting on it, but no money help much to live in a failing society.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Sherlock For This Useful Post:

    AussieDave (17 August 2019)

  13. #9
    AussieDave's Avatar
    AussieDave is online now Public Member
    Join Date
    November 2005
    Location
    from the land downunder
    Posts
    4,097
    Blog Entries
    1
    Thanks
    1,696
    Thanked 1,933 Times in 1,100 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Money in banks are just IOUs.
    Cash, was once backed by Gold Holdings. These days, that Gold, is a fantasy.

    ---
    Compliance: a code word for control

    ---
    Do the right thing, even when no one is looking. It's called integrity.
    ---

    It's your right to be treated honestly: fairness for all igaming affiliates - doch.news

  14. #10
    PROFRBcom's Avatar
    PROFRBcom is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    April 2013
    Posts
    2,084
    Thanks
    1,445
    Thanked 1,180 Times in 763 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by universal4 View Post
    There have been a few predicting a recession the last few days because of the upset in the US Bond market and the "inverted yield curve". In simple terms this is when the 10 year bond rate falls below the 2 year rate.
    The 3 month/10 year has been inverted for months and it is a more solid predictor of recession.

    There is also SEVENTEEN TRILLION dollars worth of NEGATIVE YIELDING debt floating around right now. The world is insane.

  15. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to PROFRBcom For This Useful Post:

    Maxfalcon (26 August 2019), Sherlock (18 August 2019)

  16. #11
    Sherlock's Avatar
    Sherlock is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    December 2013
    Location
    WC
    Posts
    4,213
    Thanks
    1,275
    Thanked 3,306 Times in 1,841 Posts

    Default

    Even more insane is that those negative rates are now a norm. Some countries in Europe, for example Denmark, already have negative rates on mortgages.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to Sherlock For This Useful Post:

    PROFRBcom (21 August 2019)

  18. #12
    casinobonusguy is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    October 2006
    Posts
    1,996
    Thanks
    162
    Thanked 1,005 Times in 615 Posts

    Default

    Sherlock , my dad does not have his mattress stuffed just High interest savings
    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Not many people now sit literally on cash, because there is no cash. Money in banks are just IOUs. Even cash societies are very much cashless nowadays. Having cash as notes is dangerous, because you are automatically suspicious for doing bad things (like gambling..).

    The banks will get the hardest hits if recession comes. There will be payout restrictions, capital freezing. Or hyperinflation. There is no flawless strategy for the dystopia that is coming. Everybody will be hit hard in some way. I believe BTC will skyrocket, so I keep sitting on it, but no money help much to live in a failing society.

  19. The Following User Says Thank You to casinobonusguy For This Useful Post:

    Sherlock (18 August 2019)

  20. #13
    Nenad is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    June 2019
    Posts
    547
    Thanks
    311
    Thanked 153 Times in 128 Posts

    Default

    I wish it's true what you're saying! But somehow I do believe that it's going to happen in the near future.

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetbet View Post
    The IMF has been warning about a possible global financial crisis for some time now. It's coming alright, and most of us won't see it until it's right on our doorstep.

    I like the way this guy explains it.
    https://twitter.com/Paisan26849860/s...16283779321857
    I think you're just right! We won't see it until it strike.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Even more insane is that those negative rates are now a norm. Some countries in Europe, for example Denmark, already have negative rates on mortgages.
    It is insane! How would anyone explain that?

  21. #14
    Sherlock's Avatar
    Sherlock is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    December 2013
    Location
    WC
    Posts
    4,213
    Thanks
    1,275
    Thanked 3,306 Times in 1,841 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by casinobonusguy View Post
    Sherlock , my dad does not have his mattress stuffed just High interest savings
    High interest? You mean the -0.2% offered by my bank instead of -0.4% standard?
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  22. The Following User Says Thank You to Sherlock For This Useful Post:

    AussieDave (18 August 2019)

  23. #15
    Sherlock's Avatar
    Sherlock is offline Public Member
    Join Date
    December 2013
    Location
    WC
    Posts
    4,213
    Thanks
    1,275
    Thanked 3,306 Times in 1,841 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Nenad View Post
    It is insane! How would anyone explain that?
    How to explain insanity? Like when horse being a consul or stuffing people to cattle-wagons and gassing them. It is simply real. Once someone has the power, like Skybet affiliates, GVC or Paddy, they will abuse it to the point where it is possible and beyond.

    Central banks realised they have the power to manipulate the interest rates, so they started to use it. Even Alan Greenspan did not believe what was happening in 90's will work (as shown by Adam Curtis). But it worked and it was nothing compared to last decade. But it still "works". The interest rate that is set by central banks is the benchmark. Commercial banks must pay to central bank for deposits of money so it is cheaper for them to issue mortgages with negative interest rate in some cases (still rare). Some banks indeed hoard the cash, but that has the limit as well. In any way hoarding cash does not bring any profit, so banks suffer now, because they are not making money and have high costs.

    It is the same situation like the real socialism that ended in 89-91. The only difference is that by socialism the state dictated prices (of goods, labor and capital) - the prices were just numbers on paper, constant in every shop, and the giant primitive computers were counting the demand and supply and from that also the prices came out. That was called central planning. And indeed it did not work, however it survived for incredibly long time as critics forget.

    Now the price of money ( = the interest) is being dictated. But it is the similar situation as during socialism.

    During central planing the computers and people at central plan buro made many mistakes. Sometimes coffee was too expensive, so it was something exclusive. Sometimes sugar was too cheap, so people fed pigs with sugar. Sometimes they miscounted the demand for bicycles, so the economy run out of bicycles, because not enough was built and because the prices were fixed (normally price would go up), there was the blackmarket for bicycles [all those examples are real and I remember them]. This looks insane, it is insane, but people simply accepted that reality and wasted their lives in queues and bitching on system that they created. People are still people. They keep repeating the same patterns. Now we are in similar situation, but because the economy is debt driven, some crazy people at power manipulate the interest rate and buy votes with it.

    Because the crazy thing here is that low or negative interest is in short term good for consumers who then do not revolt. It is very bad for economy overall, because no money is effectively invested to the niches that would bring high ROI. So what will be really needed is not done. Indeed it is not bad for every venture. Just the allocation of sources is completely off. It was great for gambling. The golden decade that we had is here not because people want to gamble that much or that we are so great webmasters. It is here because of printing money and low interest rates. It will never repeat and I will talk about it hopefully to my grandchildren by campfire and they will think that we were insane or that I am senile.

    Yes, we are insane. And it is insane to think this will go on forever. It will end badly and it will end with the first crisis from now on.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Sherlock For This Useful Post:

    Nenad (18 August 2019)

  25. #16
    Soplica's Avatar
    Soplica is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    August 2016
    Posts
    117
    Thanks
    10
    Thanked 52 Times in 39 Posts

    Default

    Be calm, the ECB in 12 september Will unleash a "package to stimulate the economy"

    More interest cut

  26. #17
    AussieDave's Avatar
    AussieDave is online now Public Member
    Join Date
    November 2005
    Location
    from the land downunder
    Posts
    4,097
    Blog Entries
    1
    Thanks
    1,696
    Thanked 1,933 Times in 1,100 Posts

    Default

    Even if there is... after 19 years in this gig, I'm yet to see a recession affect my commissions.

    If anything, I've seen them rise.

    Gambling and Porn, the two industries which seem to be recession proof
    ---
    Compliance: a code word for control

    ---
    Do the right thing, even when no one is looking. It's called integrity.
    ---

    It's your right to be treated honestly: fairness for all igaming affiliates - doch.news

  27. #18
    AussieDave's Avatar
    AussieDave is online now Public Member
    Join Date
    November 2005
    Location
    from the land downunder
    Posts
    4,097
    Blog Entries
    1
    Thanks
    1,696
    Thanked 1,933 Times in 1,100 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by casinobonusguy View Post
    In my area homes have dropped $150,000 or so in past 18 months it is not a issue for us as we bought our home long time ago but for first time I heard of a neighbour losing their home.Every one on my street has $100000 plus in cars on drive way ,people seem to borrow for everything.I think you can survive a recession if you plan for stuff ,in 2008 I lost 42% of my investments but we sat on sidelines and did nothing.My 80 year old father is 100% in cash now so it depends on your age how you plan for it.
    I haven't had a credit card since 23, when I get myself up the sh#t with one. Was hard to manage without when younger, but as the years go on, and you ONLY buy what you can afford to pay for, it slowly gets easier, to live without needing banks and such. Granted if I wasn't an affiliate for years, and only working for a salary then things would likely be a lot different. But that's not the case, so it's a moot point.

    Everything I have, cars, house the whole lot, I own outright. If needed be I could survive on very little cash.


    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    How to explain insanity? Like when horse being a consul or stuffing people to cattle-wagons and gassing them. It is simply real. Once someone has the power, like Skybet affiliates, GVC or Paddy, they will abuse it to the point where it is possible and beyond.
    At his best, man is the noblest of animals; separated from law and justice he is the worse - Aristotle
    Last edited by AussieDave; 19 August 2019 at 4:00 am.
    ---
    Compliance: a code word for control

    ---
    Do the right thing, even when no one is looking. It's called integrity.
    ---

    It's your right to be treated honestly: fairness for all igaming affiliates - doch.news

  28. #19
    baldidiot is offline Private Member
    Join Date
    January 2010
    Posts
    4,465
    Thanks
    410
    Thanked 2,027 Times in 1,339 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Even more insane is that those negative rates are now a norm. Some countries in Europe, for example Denmark, already have negative rates on mortgages.
    I was reading a 'fact check' article the other day that was saying danish mortgages don't work like most other countries, so it's not the same as a negative mortgage rate in the US or UK.

    Something to do with them being treated more like bonds with a fixed management fee paid to the bank in addition to the interest (1% I think it said). So the bank is still charging 1% annually, with the interesting being based on whatever rate the bonds are trading at (which is currently negative).

    I only skimmed it quickly so could have gotten the wrong end of the stick. Maybe someone from denmark could chime in with how it works?
    onlinegamblingwebsites.com - Formally known as goodbonusguide.

  29. The Following User Says Thank You to baldidiot For This Useful Post:

    Sherlock (22 August 2019)

  30. #20
    allaboutthebets's Avatar
    allaboutthebets is online now Private Member
    Join Date
    February 2017
    Posts
    929
    Thanks
    896
    Thanked 411 Times in 298 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by AussieDave View Post
    I haven't had a credit card since 23, when I get myself up the sh#t with one. Was hard to manage without when younger, but as the years go on, and you ONLY buy what you can afford to pay for, it slowly gets easier, to live without needing banks and such. Granted if I wasn't an affiliate for years, and only working for a salary then things would likely be a lot different. But that's not the case, so it's a moot point.

    Everything I have, cars, house the whole lot, I own outright. If needed be I could survive on very little cash.




    At his best, man is the noblest of animals; separated from law and justice he is the worse - Aristotle
    More people should think like that. I have friends who live well beyond their means. Buying expensive cars, TVs holidays they can't afford
    bettingworx.com - latest betting app reviews & guides for Android, iOS & mobile.
    androidbettingappguide.co.uk - Reviews, download guides & info for betting apps on Android devices
    bettingapps365com - Dedicated Android app store for all gambling apps
    bingoappguide.co.uk - Reviews & guides for all real money bingo apps
    appsdeapuestas.es | app-scommesse.com | pokerappguide.com | gamble-usa.com

Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •