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  1. #41
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    Helicopter money were never used in history so far (if I am not mistaken). Helicopter money is not just common priniting money. It is printing money that is evenly distributed (more or less).

    The even distribution or simply distribution to all citizens is very important. Because now when the money is printed they go much more to rich people and institutions and they just make speculative bubbles, because the rich people spend much smaller % of their assets than poor. So the money that are already printed on large scale go down the economy without big impacts on spending like flash flood through concrete channel.

    The helicopter money is a step where government stops playing games and gets real. It is so far just a theoretical concept, no one was that insane to try it, but maybe we go to era of insanity. It is true that money priniting did not have so far the harsh effects, but as I said, it was only because the money were given to people who do not spend.

    Helicopter money will/would be immediately shown in inflation. There is no other way.
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  2. #42
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    Certainly we will be faced with difficult times ahead with the threat of a recession. Whether there is one or not it is a reminder that we need to clear our debts and rethink how we are spending. If you are in a position of investments don't panic and ride things our as long as you are not in immediate need of funds. My experience has been the investments have been stronger on the other side given time.

    Will be interesting to see what happens to Bitcoin during these times.

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  4. #43
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    Something is definitely coming, and fast
    https://twitter.com/CryptoWelson/sta...06045808472064

  5. #44
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  6. #45
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    That is the thing discussed above: normally the sin markets like alcohol, tobacco or gambling is from defensive markets or defensive stocks, so it is considered less influenced by business cycles and in some cases the worse the economy the better the niche.

    However this is just a general rule and I guess it depends on kind of recession. The mild recessions I guess can work well for those industries, but in really hardcore depression everything must go down, because people really run out of money.

    Imagine a situation where depression comes: In 1st phase people will be stressed and need the money, so they will go gambling. But if recession continues, there will be a credit crunch so people will have nothing to gamble with and then gambling might underperform even the tanking market. Somewhat better prognosis would have hyperinflated recession as it is in Venezuela or coming in Argentina now.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanHorvat View Post
    Do people gamble more or less during recession?
    I was still playing poker full-time, professionally (as well as other side businesses) back during the "great recession" of 08-09. I was playing high stakes games, 50/100 USD blinds and higher.

    I can tell you with great confidence that the money flowing into those big games dried up and dried up quickly.

    I didn't have a diversified enough affiliate account back then to say one way or the other, as virtually all of our clients back then were other professional poker players, and not the recreational types who feed the poker economy with deposits.

  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanHorvat View Post
    Do people gamble more or less during recession?
    I really believe people tend to gamble more during recession. You can always see, as the country becomes poorer, the national lotteries and kinds are full of money, as people tend to make money. Unfortunately they never do!

  9. #48
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    I have to gree with Nenad. It is like the Dry regim in the States, the consuption of liquor raised 2 or 3 times. Forbidden things and recessions are good for all sins This is what human nature is.
    Seven times fall, eight times stand.

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  11. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nenad View Post
    I really believe people tend to gamble more during recession. You can always see, as the country becomes poorer, the national lotteries and kinds are full of money, as people tend to make money. Unfortunately they never do!
    Yes, those lotteries are full of people, but they make much less money.

    Here are some stats, I do not believe it is accurate, because Japan I guess makes it to top 10 too, but it shows that if you want to lose money you must either have it or have access to credit. Just rich countries are on the top. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/...-the-most.html
    Rank Country Gaming Losses Per Adult
    1 Australia $1,288.00
    2 Singapore $1,174.00
    3 Ireland $588.00
    4 Canada $568.00
    5 Finland $553.00
    6 Italy $517.00
    7 Hong Kong $503.00
    8 Norway $448.00
    9 Greece $420.00
    10 Spain $418.00
    If we see drop in GDP 7% or more, I am tempted to think people will gamble less, probably much less. But I think the drop that is coming will be even deeper.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  13. #50
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    Sherlock, I do agree with you. But as I'm coming from the poorer country where the gambling is not represented as in richer ones, whenever the situation get worse, people are turning to the lottery and similar stuff.
    Simply, it's much easier for them to buy a lottery ticket and hope for the best. It's much cheaper, and it does not require any knowledge to be a part of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DanHorvat View Post
    Do people gamble more or less during recession?
    Very difficult to say, such data is hard to find and when you find some, it is flawed.

    There is some academic research that suggests people gamble less during a recession - however, their data comes from 2008 crisis and from spendings in US land-based casinos. So yes, recession hit the US and some people decided that they will not make that weekend trip to Vegas and maybe instead they'll buy some booze and get drunk at home.

    However, there are other countries where people will behave differently and there are different types of recessions. For example in Venezuela people now play lottery much more than before the hyperinflation period. Because hey, everything's totally ****** up anyways so why not buy lottery tickets as the last chance.

    Then you have places like Macau where Chinese people go to gamble - that city is supposedly in a recession now and gambling revenue is dropping hard but it's very hard to pinpoint the reasons and to tell correlation from causation, especially in a place where 50 % of GDP comes from gambling.

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  17. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nenad View Post
    Sherlock, I do agree with you. But as I'm coming from the poorer country where the gambling is not represented as in richer ones, whenever the situation get worse, people are turning to the lottery and similar stuff.
    Simply, it's much easier for them to buy a lottery ticket and hope for the best. It's much cheaper, and it does not require any knowledge to be a part of it.
    I know that mindset, I was born in poor country and I live in even poorer. I see the rows of poor people by state lotteries. I saw people who are at the end of their stupid life decisions and they turn to gambling. Many people are also poor because of gambling habit and not that they are gambling because they are poor. But those cases should not be compared to gambling sector as whole for this reason: If situation gets worse and those people really go gambling like crazy, they will do it only for limited time. And after? Suicides, jobless, homeless, out of capitalistic game. But then the aggregate income will drop.

    Poor people can not gamble money they do not have in full retard economic depression. They can do it now, because there is always some kind man or institution, that lends them money. But can you imagine full scale economic disaster? It was not here for 90 years, but once the next economic slump will develop into planetary catastrophe, because there are no economic tools to stop it. We are heading towards reset. Maybe gambling will suffer less than other parts of economy, but that is it.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  19. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azureus View Post
    However, there are other countries where people will behave differently and there are different types of recessions. For example in Venezuela people now play lottery much more than before the hyperinflation period. Because hey, everything's totally ****** up anyways so why not buy lottery tickets as the last chance.
    That is the hyperinflation scenario, where people stop trusting the money itself. It is really a question whether 1st world will go this way.

    But let's turn it around: do you think that gambling operators (probably state lottery) got rich nowadays more than before Venezuela collapsed? I really doubt that.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  20. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    That is the hyperinflation scenario

    Ultimately this is coming. There is too much debt in the world and not enough productive people to pay it back.

    Question I have is, will there be a massive deflationary recession first to trigger the uber money printing hyperinflation beast or will that be skipped.

    I say the deflation comes first so that productive assets can be snatched up on the cheap, then the hyperinflation follows and those with said assets are financially protected because the assets inflate in value also.

    Long story short, own real things when inflation starts to kick in. Deploy saved capital if deflationary recession comes along. Save your money now because there is very little out there with anything resembling a reasonable risk/reward and inflation is low (keep your money liquid).

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  22. #55
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    Regarding the hyperinflation, I don't believe that 1st world countries will go that way. But other countries might do, and it's very possible.

  23. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by PROFRBcom View Post
    Ultimately this is coming. There is too much debt in the world and not enough productive people to pay it back.

    Question I have is, will there be a massive deflationary recession first to trigger the uber money printing hyperinflation beast or will that be skipped.

    I say the deflation comes first so that productive assets can be snatched up on the cheap, then the hyperinflation follows and those with said assets are financially protected because the assets inflate in value also.

    Long story short, own real things when inflation starts to kick in. Deploy saved capital if deflationary recession comes along. Save your money now because there is very little out there with anything resembling a reasonable risk/reward and inflation is low (keep your money liquid).
    This is what you wrote here and it makes sense. But it is not the only scenario. I also think that hyperinflation does not come first, but honestly why? Only because 1st work did not have high inflation for decades? We underestimate things we do not see and overestimate the ones we do see.

    It is hard for me to imagine a politician/central banker who will restrict money supply when GDP falls, unemployment grows, credit crunch is in after previous QE "worked flawlessly". Even right wing governments now are not strict with economic policies and there are no problems visible yet. Trump demanding lower interest rates, wtf is that?

    I believe they will do anything they can to cause inflation when necessary, and once it kicks in, everyone will see it is uncontrolable anymore.

    I also believe in strong divergence of 1st world countries. Maybe there will be one winner or relative winner (probably USA still last time in history) and more losers (welcome UK to the 3rd world club along with former colonies)

    As for the "Productive assets". There are vanishing except intellectual property/know how. Factories, companies or land are no more productive. Plus it can be and will be taxed to hell. What is productive is how to use those inputs. But even know how during and after depression will be changed and what works now will not work.

    The value is meta-learning. Keeping the brain fresh, prepare for another round, closer to Alzheimer, competing with kids from kindergartens. The good thing for us here is that they are raised as digital idiots. So another value should be strong family with many kids raised strictly against official regime.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  25. #57
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    I think one is coming soon. As the user Universal4 pointed out, it's just as much about psychology, as it is about market factors. I see plenty of areas that could cause a domino effect tearing down the economy. Where I live (the US), we've got some serious issues with auto loans and student loans. I've pulled my own investments, including crypto..Just sitting on the fence for now.

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  27. #58
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    The value will always be to learn and read more. Just look what is happening in Uk and the riots in Honk Kong. Those crysis are very productive for few people.

    UK will go down the sink as they are not totally aware of what that idiot Boris Johson is leading them to. It is and will be a psychology effect, there is a crysis and learn how the masses will react.

    The best reation is to have more knowledge, but to share it with the right people. It is all maths and stats and you should learn from which angle to take advantage of it. Take a short example with the "Dry regime".
    Seven times fall, eight times stand.

  28. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by drifter8 View Post
    Take a short example with the "Dry regime".
    I tried 2 search engines. I don't think you are talking about dry scalp or skin lol. What is "dry regime"?

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  30. #60
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    Thx for the correction - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohib..._United_States

    This is what I ment - the prohibiton of liquor in Us. In my language it is called Dry mode - "Dry mode/ regi" as all liquor was banned

    All other search engines will give you answer out of the question
    Seven times fall, eight times stand.

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