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  1. #61
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    There is another pro-crisis factor that was not discussed yet here, but it is very significant. Maybe it is just another view on the same issue after all.

    It is the leftist view on capitalism and I like it (the view). It says that modern, open trade "capitalism", is like a parasite or cancer. Something that needs to keep on spreading and exploiting.

    So there was the intra-country or intra-society exploitation, the 19th century style, that is now I believe completely over. Because I as capitalist nowadays beg people to work and they tell me to fo. Because they can afford it of course. The power shift to labourers is over.

    But the expansive "capitalism" was expanding during last decades in between countries. So the 1st world outsourced the jobs from West Europe to East Europe. From USA to China. The salary gap was huge. But now what. East Europe is becoming expensive. China factories are moved to South-East Asia. (And Indian programmers sadly were always mostly total idiots and no use at all.) South American programmers move to Eastern Europe for "better life" (They will run back like Che Guevara bored from Prague, but that is completely different story).

    That is the end game. Capitalism has no more room for expansion. South-East Asia will be richer too and Africa is too small for expansion, even when China, as the most capitalistic nation, is trying hard to keep the game going there.

    So this is another view on crisis. The best scenario that might happen is the 3 lost decades in Japan. In Japan the growth stalls, but the society is stable. There is the deflationary economy. The things goods change IMHO not in terms of quantity, but quality, so it is like an "inner expansion" (it is hard to describe, but I believe it is the only country where you get fresh strawberries in the winter in 24/7 shop in the middle of nowhere and all that with polite smile and bow). But it is very specific culture, with central planning and very peaceful people accepting the world order, even when it is harsh to themselves. So maybe this analogy will fall short elsewhere.

    Anyways the fact that there is no more room for expansion is obvious.
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  3. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    It is the leftist view on capitalism and I like it (the view). It says that modern, open trade "capitalism", is like a parasite or cancer. Something that needs to keep on spreading and exploiting.
    I guess this is something the guy in your profile pic would say. You say it as well in your signature. It's probably true and it's also a model that works and will work in the future until humanity has something like total conciousness, one huge interconnected superbrain (internet is not enough), singularity or however I should call it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    So there was the intra-country or intra-society exploitation, the 19th century style, that is now I believe completely over. Because I as capitalist nowadays beg people to work and they tell me to fo. Because they can afford it of course. The power shift to labourers is over.

    That is the end game. Capitalism has no more room for expansion. South-East Asia will be richer too and Africa is too small for expansion, even when China, as the most capitalistic nation, is trying hard to keep the game going there.
    That's an intriguing concept... if capitalism would die, there are so many things connected to it and these things would stop making sense (nation states, 9-to-5 jobs, central banks etc). I'm not saying they make a lot of sense now but they are like cornerstones of the modern world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    So this is another view on crisis. The best scenario that might happen is the 3 lost decades in Japan. In Japan the growth stalls, but the society is stable. There is the deflationary economy. The things goods change IMHO not in terms of quantity, but quality, so it is like an "inner expansion" (it is hard to describe, but I believe it is the only country where you get fresh strawberries in the winter in 24/7 shop in the middle of nowhere and all that with polite smile and bow). But it is very specific culture, with central planning and very peaceful people accepting the world order, even when it is harsh to themselves. So maybe this analogy will fall short elsewhere.

    Anyways the fact that there is no more room for expansion is obvious.
    Imho most societies in the world are still heavily consumerist, United States, China, most of Europe, most of SE Asia. I'd say even marxism in the Soviet Union was actually consumerist... There are still new young people born every day who will want to spend, Japanese culture doesn't change that.

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  5. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azureus View Post
    I guess this is something the guy in your profile pic would say. You say it as well in your signature. It's probably true and it's also a model that works and will work in the future until humanity has something like total conciousness, one huge interconnected superbrain (internet is not enough), singularity or however I should call it.
    Yes, I guess he would say that too, but he is saying even something on the top of it. He is at least trying. And with all the ugliness we live in interesting times (which is the horror for Zizek). ETHmoonboys hope Ethereum is the supercomputer. I would be fine with BTC changing just the monetary system, because just that (inability of states to issue money) would break all the things totally.

    Quote Originally Posted by Azureus View Post
    That's an intriguing concept... if capitalism would die, there are so many things connected to it and these things would stop making sense (nation states, 9-to-5 jobs, central banks etc). I'm not saying they make a lot of sense now but they are like cornerstones of the modern world.
    I must just agree. The cornerstones go deeper. The consumerism itself, the easy way out from all troubles through shopping or rather through thinking what I can buy, is what defines the modern society. So capitalism will probably not die, but will be reset. I really believe it is coming. Parallelly, I also believe, the reset will be somehow connected with going back with men-women relationships, where it spiralled out of control and men are incredibly weak and women are claiming something that is against them, but they realise it too late and even that is on both sides feeding the consumerism.

    Quote Originally Posted by Azureus View Post
    Imho most societies in the world are still heavily consumerist, United States, China, most of Europe, most of SE Asia. I'd say even marxism in the Soviet Union was actually consumerist... There are still new young people born every day who will want to spend, Japanese culture doesn't change that.
    You are right. It is well documented and even officially taught that Soviet Union was consumerist state (the fact that was not much to consume does not change the fact, actually it supports it, because consumerism is not about the consume, but about hopes and wishes and the less is for sale the stronger is the ideology).

    Real Japanese culture also is about consume. It is the most fine consume. That is why I also love that country, I am coming here to consume as well. Spending money elsewhere is nuisance when compared to Japan (there is always something imperfect, like pissed off front clerk or dirty toilet in hotel, in other countries, through which the illusion of this circus is being felt). As perfect perversion as possible, that is Japan. I was just talking that macroeconomically they stagnate for 30 years, maybe they reached the peak for capitalism, where all people are perfectly served consumers and totally worn out employees at once. But even Japan is the country exploiting the poor countries and dependant also on export, so they will not be missed out of the show.

    On this topic, I was recommending gambling anime Kaiji, but there is spin-off about the Japansese capitalism, which is also 11/10 for me: https://myanimelist.net/anime/37338/...iroku_Tonegawa (download at https://animelist.pw, some crazy Iranian site, currently the best for anime consumers).
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
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    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  7. #64
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    Many of these things, i assume in big part Japan stagnation, caused by demographics. Humanity and economy were growing not just through industry and such but lots due to population growth. Japan population is shrinking rapidly for years. Europe is going below the level mark. Combined with extended life span there is just not enough work force and consumers to support all the retired society.
    The retirement age doesn't catch up with the extra years people live now. Reasonable to guess that most western countries and their pension funds which do not have 3,4,5 children per woman and leave for almost 90 years will go bankrupt or the pensions will get 80% shaving.
    Last edited by MMM; 11 September 2019 at 3:19 am.
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    I agree, that is another important thing where the Japan seems to be one generation ahead... but...

    I just read Japanese-English newspaper, where some Japanese demographic expert took the age pyramid and turned it by 180 degrees and said that the situation is not that bad, because, the old, if they will be healthy, can support the young. It is a funny idea, but not that much if you are actually in Japan. The age is not a problem itself, it is the health. And the Japanese old people do have some crazy devil blood. Few days ago I went to Mt. Rausu, it is quite a trip through rough terrain and change of height 1400 metres. I met some bears and foxes and few Japanese tourists. All of them in the retirement age some of them well above. No young people at all. It is an episodic story indeed, but it tells a lot about Japan. The young Japanese people are on light sightseeing tours only and in cities. The old are the tough ones.

    So my point is: ok, Japan has crazy demographics, so the young people have to be in theory sweating their ass to support the old ones. But there is the lost generation of young guys NEETS, otaku or hikikomori. It is the reality. That is the problem. Those guys are the predecessors of our hipsters (girls not so much because they still try to date the rich older guys in old fashioned way). In other words the gap on labour market between supply and demand is wider, it is kind of a market failure. There should be more than enough work, but the (young) people do not accept it. They live with parents or rent a space in city internet cafe where they sleep&play, forever single virgins, with ambitions suppressed. Does it sound familiar for 1st world?

    Holy **** I have work for php dev. I can really pay decent salary even nowadays when prices are sky high. But I need someone who will work. After months spent searching I have nobody. The last guy who was initially very happy sent me a message few days before he had to start that he is sorry, but he has another dev live changing job, better than stupid coding for gambling. Yes, nowadays it is all about having fun at Google and few big corps who promise paradise on Earth. It is not about money, it is about having fun, friends, freedom and such sh1t, right.

    Plot twist: few days after this incident, I got info from third party that this guy actually does not go to Google or another shining corp at all. After graduating at IT university, he starts to work in Arabian style Smokers club, where he will be preparing hookah, because it was always his ******* dream. So forget about money, it is really about fun, freedom and friends. And since the fun does not last long, friends are just virtual and freedom becomes problematic, because it is opposing side is responsibility, the only thing that remains is raising political power of brats, who will unlike Japanese youngsters, demand more and more.
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  11. #66
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    This is an interesting research paper:
    https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/p...inancial-times

    First link in the article links to the paper itself. Written by two guys, one working in the IMF and one a professor at an US university.

    He is proposing that negative interest rates should not be considered "abnormal" and that "deep interest rates" (-10% or -20%) can be used to fight the next recession. This idea that "interest rates below 0 are impossible" and "you cannot pay governments to store your money instead of getting interest" are according to him outdated and artificial constructs. He also thinks that ending cash (paper money) and going full electronic (only money in the banks) could be used to end recessions and end inflation (gold standard -> paper standard -> electronic standard).

    There is a lot of content about "emoney" (not Bitcoin ) written by him: https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/emoney

    Some points that would make this more feasible according to him:
    - the ECB (European Fed) could enforce that first 5000 in a bank account have zero interest and everything above 5k has a deep negative interest rate in a recession
    - there would be a fee for getting money by a bank from ECB
    - there would be a fee for cash transaction, discouraging people from using cash
    - "Gold and crypto are not a problem because their price can go up enough that flight to gold or crypto doesn't inhibit investment."

    There is some logic to it - in the past this simply was not possible, Weimar Republic (Germany between WWI and WWII) was solving its problems by hyperinflation of 30000% per MONTH. Monetary reform (you get 1 new $ for 10 old $) also isn't politically acceptable if you're not Venezuela. However, a new form of monetary policy is possible and deep negative interest seem like the politically most acceptable short-term solution.

    This is another interesting article:
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014...est-rates.html
    The author believes that adopting and popularizing cryptocurrencies can actually HELP the central banks to get more and more power. Possibly there can be a centralized cryptocurrency that will prevent people from having freedom with their money. This currency must be not only centralized but also central bank-controlled (that is why some countries already want to ban Facebook's Libra).

    If such monetary policy is enforced (to some extent it is Japan but the Japanese still love their cash and they don't spend that much) - for USD, EUR, CHF, I think what can happen is that people will chase more and more dumb investments and seek value where there's none (stocks such as WORK, SHOP, TSLA, TLRY, BYND). Retirement funds will buy negative yielding bonds because they are forced to. Don't expect any pension from a public pension but I guess minus 0.11% on a German bond is still better than minus 20% on savings account with deep negative interest rate. Some people will flee to gold, some will flee to Bitcoin or some new trendy cryptocurrency (Hedera, Libra...)

    I'm not sure about the authors' view on Bitcoin, I think at least one of them (Miles Kimball) views it as a competition to the central banks, in a way that governments should not fight it but accept that it exists, the flight from savings accounts and negative bonds can also increase the price of Bitcoin.

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    The part about -10 to -20% makes sense in a way that this will "work". Yes it will work macroeconomically as a (last) kick to economy like the hyperinflation, but with outcome and trajectory yet unknown. The problem here is microeconomical, e.g. allocation of sources that will at -20% destroy the economy exactly like the hyperinflation in banana countries. It would kick not just crypto and gold to insane levels, so it would lead to destroying earth by electricity and mining; but it would give value to even more stupid projects that would otherwise go broke.

    Also if I am not mistaken this policy would cause problems and contradictions to banks, which are regulated (again by central banks) to have their own funding. It is Basel III and such. The banks can not just take money from central bank, they must have certain % of their "own" money from savers and those criteria are made stricter and not looser. So they would have to change this too, which would make the financial system even more fragile.

    The second article shows that the writer has zero insight. Non-anonymous cryptos indeed can give more power to anyone who can see ledger. But:

    1. There is a reason why central bank does not create money nowadays, but why it is 2 tiered process. To change this one does not need a cryptocurrency. The helicopter money that I described above is exactly that step, where central bank gives money to people and there is no need to change the system to centralised crypto.

    2. Nobody did not describe how people will suddenly start putting money to centralised stablecoins that have value derived from fiat, like Libra, yet this nonsense is being repeated. People put money to bitcoin, because it is a hedge against stupid monetary policies. People have zero interest to put money to Libra for such purpose, because it does not solve anything. If the underlying currency or currencies will be ruined by negative interest rates, so will be the crypto on the top of that. Libra can not appreciate like USDT can not appreciate, because the value will not float freely. And no institution like central bank of facebook will make free-floating crypto, because there is no reason for that, because then they would lose their power over that. It would be just another BTC. In the end yes, they will have to accept the BTC and give up the power, after they will destroy the current system. That is what is the game about from the beginning and this is why people have to buy and do buy BTC, ETH, or XMR (the more decentralised the better).

    If there is -20% on savings account, there will be no more -0.11% at bond. The bond rate will be below -20%.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Anyways crazy times. I am not sure what is more funny if rightwing president calling for negative interest and reset of US debt, when markets completely ignore this call. Of if it is EU central bank boss Draghi, who has turned around something crazy: normally the central bank has to be independent on governments. The governments do not have to have influence over it and ask central banks to do easy politics. We all know it is just a game of workds and the central banks are under constant pressure like from Trump. But now the central bank is pushing government to change their fiscal policy. So it is shown how the power shifted and the central bank is the ruler.
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  14. #68
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    I think negative interest rates are a very unhealthy development, but I don't know what we will say about this period in the future.

    I believe negative interest rates on saving accounts won't happen on a bigger scale for retail investors. Why? Because at -10% they would run to the bank and cash out their holdings and deposit them in a safe place. At least that's what I would do.
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    Do not forget small savers are not (that) important. The billions of people are NOT here to be stripped out of money even when this is unpopular idea for those people who need to believe someone is ripping them off this way. (Same as small affiliates think they are beaten much more than big affilates, when I believe it is the other way around). After all all this is done because of voters and one person = one vote.

    There is much more money concentrated by very few hands. And the populist politicians (nowadays all of them) try to aim there.

    Is not a common knowledge that even 1st world middle class today does not have a financial reserve for more than few weeks? Yeah, people have no money, so negative interest rates or high inflation can not cause them big harm firsthand. Indeed they all can cash out their 1000 USD and no big issue.

    Just look at the fresh newcomer to the club, the Argentina. People were allowed to cash out 10K USD/Month in similar scenario. Why? Because for 99% of people this is not a change at all from individual perspective.

    However there is the other perspective, the overall state of economy that will in the end affect all people and that is the problem. After all even for the 1% of rich people the negative interest rates will mostly not be a personal problem at all too, because most of them in the end will buy some gold or bitcoin.

    The economy will however suffer a lot and therefore even society will. Because people will have crippled brains. If people will really start to believe that one can borrow and the lender has to pay for that, in other words that it is not the work that is the productive thing, then there is really a problem. How can society work like that? It will be divided even more than now, the whole structure will crumble beyond imagination.

    This is really not just about the nuisance that we will get money taken out of the account. After all until now the real interest rates (interest - inflation) were most of the times negative too.
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  16. #70
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    I think it's a media hype with a political motivations. I watched Bill Maher awhile back and that selfish millionaire said he hope we have a recession. He must really love his fans, he hates someone so bad he wants us all to go under. That dog is recession proof, I'm not. Nice guy!

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    I usually eat around 1 PM or 2 PM, which is later than most working people here in the center of the capital.

    Just like everyone else, I go out to buy something. There are plenty of bakeries, kiosks, malls etc. to choose from.

    They regularly started turning me down because they don't have the thing I ordered, so I either have to buy something else or stay hungry. So today instead of meat I had to eat fried calamari. Because they didn't have buns for the hamburger so I couldn't get one.

    They're obviously optimizing their businesses by only ordering the amount of food that will certainly get sold so they don't have any leftovers. Brilliant thinking as it also ensures your other stuff gets sold (people will rarely walk away, they'll order something else). And it's not just one company - it's all of them.

    Even bakeries - who can bake whatever's needed at any time - don't bother to bake something when they run out. The guy stands there from 1 PM to 8 PM carefully listening to orders and then replying they've run out.

    McDonald's started allowing only 1 coupon per order.

    I've started running out of places I'm not boycotting.

    So recession isn't around the corner, it's already here, it crept in and will keep creeping in. In economy you usually don't have an obvious catastrophic event but you have these small things that tell you what's really going on. I have no doubt the manufactured statistics will keep saying it's all good for months and years to come. So you can't your truth from the news. Got to observe things for yourself and got to talk to strangers.

    In your country it may be something else that tells the truth - in mine it's hamburger buns.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DanHorvat View Post
    I have no doubt the manufactured statistics will keep saying it's all good for months and years to come. So you can't your truth from the news. Got to observe things for yourself and got to talk to strangers.
    There is a website called Shadow Stats that tracks US government statistics. It uses the original formulas (and tracks the interim changed formulas in some cases) and displays what the numbers would be if the way they are calculated was not constantly changed to look better than it really is.

    The information is very eye opening!


    negative interest rates
    ******* abomination. The idea of PAYING a stranger to not only hold your capital, but that stranger is incentivized to "gamble" with your money to make money for themselves is absolutely insane.

    There is a reason this is the first known occurrence of negative interest rates in the last 5,000 years... because human beings were at one point semi-rational as a group. Now, not so much.

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    Actually... there were always such cases, like in the middle ages there were fees for depositing gold at goldsmiths (and this is how banks developed). There were also laws against interest in many cultures (and this is how Jews developed). There was most of the time inflation, which makes interest a negative sometimes and so on.

    Now it is a bit unique, because combined with money that do not have the physical counterpart, everyone will have to accept those low interest rates.

    I just had an experience few weeks ago when I just landed in one city of developed nation, the next day everything went tits up and I was leaving developing nation on the brink of collapse. And this is a trend in the world. So I think we after all might not see a recession/depression everywhere or we can see very different depth of it. This might be a game where the weak will simply downgrade their economy to the prehistory.

    Same thing can happen with most people (instead of states) inside of the society. Once the markets start to price in the fact that interest will never go up, banks might refuse to spend and if communism does not come in a form of state agency redistributing the money, then most people will be out of credit and that will be their economical death.
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    Well, a recession is to put it mildly. Depression at minimum and many would actually call it the Greater Depression! Living in an ocean of newly created currency units can only go so far and some day - perhaps even today - that money will dry up - the interest rates will have to go up and the party build on artificial debt will end. every 6-8 years historically there has been a recession ... last one was 2008 - we are long overdue. Hope for the best yet expect the worst.

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    I think it depends on the country or region.
    Although difficult situations continue in many developed countries, I personally have high expectations for Southeast Asia.

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