What are the odds bitcoins will be worth nothing in 2030?

[MichaelCorfman]

Yesterday Buzzy posed the following question in the GPWA forums: Could each bitcoin be worth $500,000 by 2030?

The post was based on an article published on the U.K. Business Insider that laid out the reasons Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith feel it's "reasonable" that each bitcoin could be worth as much as $500,000 by 2030.

But as Sherlock subsequently pointed out in that thread, it is also possible bitcoin will not survive until then.

I, for one, have wondered about the future of public key encryption systems, which play a central role in modern security, and in bitcoins and every other cryptocurrency. What happens, for example, if quantum computers become reality, and if they really can easily solve the the integer factorization problem whose current difficulty of solution is the foundation of bitcoin?

So, for this week's poll, in addition to sharing your view of the odds bitcoin will survive another 13 years to 2030, be sure to post your thoughts about the future of bitcoin, both near and long-term. And also whether you hold onto any bitcoins hoping for appreciation.

Personally, I have not held any for very long. Although I did hold some bitcoin I received last month, that had dropped a lot in value in the recent dip, long enough for them to at least recover what they had lost.

Michael

[elgoog]

nice one!

[Sherlock]

voted 80-99%, closer to 80%

The 500K is not completely crazy estimation, so the future value of Bitcoins might be close to .15 x 500K = 75K

Considering the alternatives, like 0% interest rate, it is worth of the shot because it would be undervalued like 60x

But I think interesting would be some closer date. If the 500K is hit then we have many billionaires here, but some would be I guess rather more at 7-8 figures, but at sooner date.

[Renee]

Saw this in my facebook feed last night. Made me laugh and is relevant to this topic.

[sweetbet]

For the many advantages that Bitcoin has over hard currencies, I voted that it will most likely survive.

But here's what Warren Buffet said about Bitcoin:

"It's a method of transmitting money. It's a very effective way of transmitting money and you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money just because they can transmit money? Are money orders? You can transmit money by money orders. People do it. I hope bitcoin becomes a better way of doing it, but you can replicate it a bunch of different ways and it will be. The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view."

[Sherlock]

Still bitcoin appreciated few times more than berkshire hathaway from the time when he said that.

Tbh when he said that I just started to buy btc more massively and it were words of WB that caused me being much more conservative by the time. So a big loss for me.

I never understood how he could he not understand that the "intristic value" was in the history always caused
1st by the using of something as the currency
and then 2nd by the snowball effect caused by speculators.

Incredible read related to this "value" problem: http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...ncy-1001572621

[TheGooner]

There are a lot of major bumps that I see with bitcoin. (*)

OBVSERVATIONS :
-------------------------
Firstly, most of the rise in bitcoin has been created by a very limited supply as 2000 addresses hold approximately half of the known BTC today - that might only be 100-200 real accounts, and much of the trading is actually just speculation by traders - the majority of which are Chinese. The actual percentage of trading that's done as a REAL purposeful exchange of trade is very, very, small.

So the market price as it exists today has several major risks that could blow it out :
- If a major account decides to sell out of BTC today - then the price would plummet.
- Chinese government cracks down on speculation.
- Instability of price and/or miner software causes a panic.

Secondly, the recent discussions of possible forking of bitcoin causes instability - but also lessens the desirability of BTC. One of the most common quoted stats is that there is limited supply of BTC, only 23 million, but with a fork then the number doubles doesn't it? After the fork we have BTC-new, and BTC-classic copies, and BTC could fork multiple times over the next few years times.

What if BTC needs to fork 10-20 times over the next decade in order to keep up with computing trends and power, transaction demands, or system issues? Does that mean that there might be over 200 million tokens of all the different BTC variants out there? 200 million is a lot more common that 23 million.

Thirdly, BTC is not the only blockchain, and it was obvious over the last month that when BTC wobbled, many of the asian speculators abandoned BTC and simply moved to ETH (and ETC), LTC, and DASH. The result was a steep dip in BTC prices. While BTC holders (or HODLers as Sherlock cals them) may be "bitcoin only until they die" it is obvious that many of the current market participants are not.

Fourthly, you cannot use BTC in the real world on a day to day basis to buy food and pay bills, or even easily convert it to cash. So it's hardly a functional currency.

And Fifthly, I hold some BTC, because it's relevant to my industry, and it's imperative to understand new developments and initiatives. I have discussed it with many friends, business contacts, lawyers, and accountants and entrepreneurs. So far not a single person has taken a holding - not one.

-----

SUMMARY :
So, bitcoin is not unique (there are many other alt-coins, blockchains and tokens), it cannot function as a world currency at the moment (it has no scale to even handle 1/10th of 1% of transactions), it not a safe store of wealth (too volatile), and it's currently useless at 99.9% of stores to buy a pizza, a cup of coffee, or a new phone.

Basically, it's not mainstream, and it doesn't have a path to get to mainstream use.

----

BTC IN 2030 ? :
If Bitcoin became the mainstream online payment currency, overcame all the technical obstacles, stayed relevant in the 2020's and through to 2030 and remained at just 23 million units ... then the price COULD get to 500K or 1M per unit.

But the jump from online bubble trinket (a virtual tulip bulb?), to this BTC value domination is impossible as it currently stands, and the forking and development required, and acceptance needed means that the BTC-future token is going to be a lot different from the BTC of today - if it exists.

The proposal that our BTC tokens of today will be worth 500x more seems to incredible to me - inconceivable to me ... but I have a few set aside to watch the ride.

[Sherlock]

There are a lot of major bumps that I see with bitcoin. (*)
Firstly, most of the rise in bitcoin has been created by a very limited supply as 2000 addresses hold approximately half of the known BTC today - that might only be 100-200 real accounts

I guess that from the 2K addresses belong to even less than 100 people. And many of them are either dead like Satoshi Nakamoto, in prison like Ross Ulbricht or the owner of Sheepmarket, or they are with the stolen coins like bitfinex (only the last one might move sooner or later).

and much of the trading is actually just speculation by traders - the majority of which are Chinese... - Chinese government cracks down on speculation.

Not true anymore. Majority of traders were probably never Chinese, only the trading happened at Chinese zero fees exchanges. The crackdown already happened early in this year. The price plummeted. And picked up. The major Chinese exchanges are in no pay mode for over 3 months. No problem for bitcoin. The action shifted to USD and EUR pairs and now it is shifting towards Japan, where bitcoin was completely legalised and stripped of VAT.

The actual percentage of trading that's done as a REAL purposeful exchange of trade is very, very, small.

Very small, but rising. And bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency with real purposeful transactions. Somehow good indicator of "purposeful" transactions are data from localbitcoins p2p transactions, where people buy bitcoins directly when they want to spend them: https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins

there is limited supply of BTC, only 23 million

It is 21 million, currently mined 16+M

but with a fork then the number doubles doesn't it?

Yes and no. Rather no.
Either BTC-new or BTC-old will quickly die out or become insignificant altcoin. Like it happened by forking Ethereum into ETH and ETC. There are already if-bets on both "bitcoin". Those bets will be graded only if fork happens. The price of the Core (BCC) bitcoin is 1100 USD the price of the btc-new aka BCU is 136.

What if BTC needs to fork 10-20 times over the next decade in order to keep up with computing trends and power, transaction demands, or system issues? Does that mean that there might be over 200 million tokens of all the different BTC variants out there? 200 million is a lot more common that 23 million.

BTC forked many times in the past. The old bitcoin simply died out. This fork is different, because significant minority does not agree with the current development and wants to keep alive the alt-chain. That is the nature of blockchain, it is nothing that was unexpected. It is not probable that many of such "forks in disagreement will happen", but if they do, it will just take more time until the one branch dies. In gambling I am sure we will use only the main branch. But if the fork happens, the stronger branch will attack the weaker and it will be soon over. Watch videos of Andreas Antonopoulos or see him live in NZ. He can explain those things very well.

Thirdly, BTC is not the only blockchain, and it was obvious over the last month that when BTC wobbled, many of the asian speculators abandoned BTC and simply moved to ETH (and ETC), LTC, and DASH. The result was a steep dip in BTC prices. While BTC holders (or HODLers as Sherlock cals them) may be "bitcoin only until they die" it is obvious that many of the current market participants are not.

Until I am paid in Ethereum or other altcoin from affiliates or until John Doe starts sing altcoins, I stick with bitcoins. It is the bitcoin that is penetrating the common people and real transactions, not altcoins. This is what matters.

And Fifthly, I hold some BTC, because it's relevant to my industry, and it's imperative to understand new developments and initiatives. I have discussed it with many friends, business contacts, lawyers, and accountants and entrepreneurs. So far not a single person has taken a holding - not one.

Nobody needs it yet. By the time the lawyers will find out they can not buy their line of coke by their local dealer with cash [because there will be no local dealer and no cash], they will think different. As we did not want to buy bitcoins until credit cards and checks seemed to work ad infinitum. So far it is still early adopter phase of bitcoin. It is cheap. When the lawyers and accountants (and later funds and then banks and then central banks) will start to buy it will be expensive.

-----

SUMMARY :

So, bitcoin is not unique (there are many other alt-coins, blockchains and tokens), it cannot function as a world currency at the moment (it has no scale to even handle 1/10th of 1% of transactions), it not a safe store of wealth (too volatile), and it's currently useless at 99.9% of stores to buy a pizza, a cup of coffee, or a new phone.

Basically, it's not mainstream, and it doesn't have a path to get to mainstream use.

Bitcoin is unique. It is the blockchain currency that has > 99% marketshare in real world transactions of all blockchains (second is maybe Monero). It is also much less volatile than altcoins. It is a mainstream of grey and black digital markets. Just those not all of those markets are yet mainstream.

[Moonlight Cat]

A check is a way of transmitting money, too.

I am sorry, i don't know USA reality. Is it possible in USA to use check when you buy drugs for example? Or if you try to give/get bribe? Or if you try to hide your financial transaction from IRS? e.t.c....

Maybe this is not very moral examples, but dark money, shadow money, money from unknown sources - this is the huge part of worlds financial flows. This is reality. Remember "Mossack Fonseca" scandal? How many power people from all other the world use secret financial shemes for hiding they finance.

And from my point of view, Nil novi sub luna. In 2030 our world may change very serious. But relationship between people still the same. Shadow financial flow will exsist. And BTC will be the better way for this. Hundreds times more better than Swiss banks.

[Sherlock]

Just returned from the daily Fitbit 10K steps and I was thinking about this thread.

I am not sure if everyone knows that in case so called fork of bitcoin occurs and suddenly exist 2 parallel bitcoins then the recent bitcoin holders own the bitcoins from both branches!

Here is very important to know that this is true only if you are using desktop or hardware wallet. Bitcoins that are by the time of fork at exchanges or at online wallets might lose one branch. Most likely it will not happen too, but the possibility is there.

I am sorry if I am spamming here with banality.

[Strider1973]

I am not sure if everyone knows that in case so called fork of bitcoin occurs and suddenly exist 2 parallel bitcoins then the recent bitcoin holders own the bitcoins from both branches!

I'm wondering about this. How would a wallet (for example an older version of Multibit) handle such a fork? I'd rather think that it's safer to have the coins placed in an exchange and they would handle the split for me? At least that's how it worked with the ETH/ETC fork, I now have the same amount of ETH and ETC in that online exchange.

[ocreditor]

voted 0%... no chance it'll be worth nothing !

[Sherlock]

I'm wondering about this. How would a wallet (for example an older version of Multibit) handle such a fork? I'd rather think that it's safer to have the coins placed in an exchange and they would handle the split for me? At least that's how it worked with the ETH/ETC fork, I now have the same amount of ETH and ETC in that online exchange.

Yes,
you were lucky because when ETH/ETC split happened the exchange was fair and gave you both coins. Also they were not hacked by so called replay attack, where one branch is attacked and coins stolen. They could easily give you only ETH. Or even worse: the ETC, because ETC was the unchanged blockchain.

This replay attack in case of fork is now known, so all exchanges should protect themselves against that.

Either way the safest way during forking is to sit the cryptocurrency in your own wallet (not online or exchange) and wait for the end of the storm. There are exchanges now like Poloniex, that I think told they will support only one branch. It is hard to say if it is legal or not, because this is something really new for law and humanity. The reason why exchanges can play it "dirty" is that they do margin funding and after fork they might have a problem as you can imagine.

After the storm is over there will be always tutorials how to use your seed to create the second wallet with the alt-bitcoin (it will be the same software like Electrum or HW like Ledger Nano). Do not send bitcoins during forking.

[yeahfree]

Yes,
Either way the safest way during forking is to sit the cryptocurrency in your own wallet (not online or exchange) and wait for the end of the storm. There are exchanges now like Poloniex, that I think told they will support only one branch. It is hard to say if it is legal or not, because this is something really new for law and humanity. The reason why exchanges can play it "dirty" is that they do margin funding and after fork they might have a problem as you can imagine.

at poloniex, especially watch out if you have your bitcoin on loan, in case of a fork you will only receive back your bitcoins, not the coins from the other branch (e.g. bitcoin unlimited), details , see https://poloniex.com/press-releases/....17-Hard-Fork/
this is also the reason why the loans percentages skyrocketed a couple of weeks ago, half of the people understood this, and stopped offering their bitcoins for lending, the other half i guess did not understand or was not aware of it that you could lose a lot of money. now , lending percentages are low again and everybody continues like it's business as normal. in case of a fork, casualties will fall over here for sure that were not aware of this.

[parttimepoker]

Voted 40-59%. I believe in crypto currencies and like bitcoin but feel that it might be replaced by one of the alt-coins.

[Progger]

Real Money,i can buy what i want....what you can buy with bitcoins ? Drugs? Guns ?

Every bubble bursts sooner or later.

Regards

[Sherlock]

With bitcoin you can for example ... gamble. If you are in the USA, then soon probably only with bitcoins. You still do not get it? That is the whole point of it.

Would be interesting poll if Euro notes will be worth of something in 2030 btw.

[Progger]

One currency only for gambling ? Btc need much more than this , and 2030 is far away. If u promote the wrong market,is this your problem.

[Sherlock]

Do you understand wording "for example"? Full recent list of potencial markets for cryptocurrencies is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Choke_Point and it is counting.

It has nothing to do with what I promote, my core market is Europe (so far, everybody who is not blind can clearly see that we affiliates will not make any money on regulated markets soon). The US market is huge. The huge market needs money. Allright, Dr. Watson?

[PROFRBcom]

I believe they will survive. But I think there will be some major changes before then. They will be regulated somehow or another... government will have to get a piece of the action if they get too big.