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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    I don't GET bitcoin as a scarce store of value (I think regular readers know that) it just doesn't make sense to me.
    Man, I like you. Your stubborn but polite scepticism. I suggest you to take the first bitcoins from bovada, go to darkmarket, buy some LSD-25 and it will make a sense to you

    Some people do not see a value in diamonds but see value in water. Click on the link and think about it (bc I suppose you will not buy the LSD). Think about it. If you understand why diamonds are expensive and water is almost for free, then you can understand why bitcoin is so high. Bitcoins are not long time not just some code that can run at some computers.
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  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    That's like saying a dollar is worth more because it's used / spent more often ...
    I don't follow the logic ...
    You do not follow the logic, but exactly that is true. Dollar is worth of a lot, even when FED is just printing more and more trillions and should have been otherwise almost zero. The reason is that Dollar now is biggest so called reserve currency, which means exactly what you said. Is used, spent (and held).

    And exactly that logic applies to bitcoin.

    But I do not think Gooner is a bitcoin hater. He is amazing. For the level of economical ignorance he has (sorry, I do not mean this as offense), he is amazing that he actually asks questions and reads replies. It means he has some experience and has good chance to understand it. We are all stupid about everything when we are born. Then it is our job to go sometimes against our own common sense. When one wants to understand money (not only bitcoin), he must forget about common sense. Read the paradox of water and diamond, the marginalistic explanation.
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  3. #23
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    So finally I will write my own opinion about Bitcoin price in future.

    There are three fundamental factors that can affect the price soon:
    1. State of world economy
    2. Bitcoin adoption
    3. Halving

    1. The world is going to ****. After last recession nothing happened, just a lot of money were printed. It seems another recession is on the way. It looks like it will be battling with deflation, but it can turn nasty into high inflation as well. Price of gold goes up, so I am not the one who thinks it. So if we have here a risk of inflation, there will be a run to safe havens. This might be bitcoin. But maybe at this stage is too early. The valuation of bitcoin is only 7billion USD, so it is maybe too small yet for save haven. But it is a good possibility that some investors will consider it. I am one of those and I am hedging more bankroll with bitcoin than with gold. Also we should not forget that part of the bitcoin funding is Silicon Valley VC. If recession comes, this VC might sell the bitcoins. So if some crisis comes, the outcome for bitcoin is really unpredictable.

    2. Bitcoin adoption. Everyone is talking about it. That for price going up we need real business in bitcoins. Ladies and gentlemen, we are sitting on insider information that only we can evaluate. Apart from drugs, the gambling/affiliate is next big business for bitcoin. So yes, we will not pay for coffee and bread soon. I think the Zug experiment is nonsense tbh - people will not exchange their CHF for bitcoins to pay municipality taxes, when they can pay directly with CHF. Because unless they are drug dealers or affiliates, they do not have BTC. No, this B2C bitcoin adoption is somewhat too early. But B2B BTC business needs the bitcoin. Every US affiliate - even bitcoin haters - see it now. So bitcoin adoption now, after betting partners stepped in, is a huge factor for growth of price. I was thinking I have enough Bitcoins that I bought a long time ago for much lower price expecting exactly what is happening now. But as Bp escalated the situationI not only decide all BTC I receive from Bp/5dimes, I even bought a bit more now.

    3. Halving means that in few weeks there will be just half of the bitcoins mined for next 4 years or so (and then half of the half etc.). I read that some people think it is a factor for rise and some people bet it can be factor for going down.

    The reson why people fear (or hope) that price can go down is that they think that if the price remains constant and miners mine half, it will not be economically sustainable for them to run the business, because they are working with tight margins (they spend a lot for electricity). There are strong arguments against that. The miners were able to mine even few months ago when price was more than half of what is now. They survived. Yes, now the difficulty of network (imagine it as aggregate computing power) is higher, but we are in very dynamic area here, where is huge development. It means the cost of the computing power in price of electricity goes down a lot, because there are better and better miners. For your imagination: the miners buy the hardware and make the most money just for few weeks. Then the hardware is obsolete and they have to look for new and more powerful one. So I think this factor is way overrated. There is a way for miners to survive halving. Esp. when we count in the unpleasant factor that a lot of electricity used for mining is simply stolen, so the variable costs for some miners are zero.

    But there is also the reason why the price should hike. The reason is the same argument as above but reversed. If we assume that now the most of btc supply is from miners who are giving most of the mined bitcoins to exchanges,then we can assume that after halving the supply might drop to 50%. That is huge. Here it is about so called price elasticity. It is a mystery. But it is good to think here about bitcoin - as exception - not as about money but as about scarce commodity. For example oil. Imagine what would happen if OPEC somewhat can reduce oil production to half. We will see incredible hike. Not to double of price, but maybe 10x maybe more in short term. There is a possibility we can see this as well.

    It is worth of noting that the price can move prior to halving or after (some people think that the recent doubling of price of btc was already pricing in).
    But here are 2 examples of halving:
    1. Nov 28, 2012 was last halving of Bitcoin, price was slightly above 10 USD; then few months later and I believe because of the halving, the price went up more than 20x
    2. Aug 25, 2015 was halving of another cryptocurrency Litecoin. Price went up from below 1.5 USD to abve 8.0 USD. It happened approx. 1 month before halving (so halving for sure was priced in). Now the price is slightly below 4 USD.

    So my opinion here is that all factors for bitcoin are neutral and positive + we have one legal insider info that is extremely positive. You can kill me later, but this is strong buy.
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Yes they are very reliable (at least some of them). You can have leverages, stop loss. It is the same as forex.
    But short squeezes happen quite often. Those are the red candle sticks up and there.
    I saw the Winklevoss brothers on Fox business yesterday promoting the first licensed exchange called Gemini dot com.
    There is also another Crypto-currency called Ether (Etherum). This might be the next big one.

    I currently don't know enough about exchanges to know if Gemini is any good or not but it would be great if someone that does could check it out and let us know.

  5. #25
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    Almost every exchange now claims it is regulated. They have probably exclusive NY licence that is it.

    In fact it does not matter about regulation in one way. What matters is only the liquidity, spreads and if they pay you out. It is the same as with bookies or affiliates. The US bookies like Bovada have just a funny regulation, but they do an excellent business. Much better that most regulated bookies, that btw got worse with regulation. The best regulation is market itself, where the company can not hide under some rules. What is much more important if they cooperate with some bank for smooth transactions. What I mean: the regulation is good and needed for the bitcoin development, but it is not important for us, unless some banks will 100% accept the regulation.

    If anyone is going into cryptos, he will see that there is always Bitcoin and always some hype about altcoins (recently Ethereum, before Ripple, before Litecoin, before Auroracoin). The fact is that none of the altcoins is being used for transactions as money (with some rare exceptions of litecoin). So the other altcoins can not be considered even a proto-money. Just one base cryptocurrency is needed, because there is really no point to have more wallets with more cryptos to pay for the same good at the same merchants. That spot is filled with bitcoin. That is why Bitcoin has much much higher perspective for long term rise. Until capacity of bitcoin network will be sustainable, there is no need for other altcoin to become a cryptocurrency. Then... maybe. But this will happen in future only if bitcoin will succeeed = there will be significant hike of btc price.

    Ethereum has much more uses than for money purposes, but that topic is not about money anymore. Also Ethereum or Ripple are much more centralised projects, there are companies behind them and real known people. If there is a company, there is a vulnerability (e.g. Apple). Exactly this vulnerability caused fall of Ripple few months ago.

    It is important to know which cryptocurrencies have those "owners" who set them up (and premined) and which do not have that. There is always a lot of useless selfpromotion about the centralised altcoins. And even in Bitcoin area, it is important to read between rows. Anybody who is developing something about cryptocurrencies has his own interests and presents those interests and tries to influcence the others. That is why for example Mr. Hearns in November left bitcoin development and started to work for R3CEV, who develop private blockchains and then in January published an article how Bitcoin is useless. Why? Only because he was somebody and can use the influence for short term diversion of interest to his new employer.

    So do not fall into impression that you will learn something important about cryptocurrencies from articles written by experts. Everyone here is a man or woman of business. You have all made money with some approach and common sense directed in a right way (e.g. you all understand the importance of SEO etc.). Use that sense. I believe Gooner has much higher availability to understand what cryptocurrencies are good for (and therefore see the value in them) than some bitcoiner that is here from the beginning or than some IT experts, who write the codes of cryptos (they are looking for perfect code, but the best currency does not need a perfect code, it just needs to be used and for that the perfect code is not that important).
    Last edited by Sherlock; 13 May 2016 at 12:17 pm.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TravG View Post
    As most know Bovada has moved to Bitcoin payments starting next month and there are several operators that had trouble this month with payments and I actually had them send me Bitcoin rather than waiting for them to resolve their payment issues.

    With that said, as Bovada and other operators move to paying with Bitcoin, do you think we will see a pop in the value of Bitcoin? Just like the stock market it is a supply/demand driven value currency and as more operators have to buy Bitcoin in order to send payments I would think the value would increase. Theoretically it would balance out as affiliates sell their Bitcoin to withdraw them, but I am sure some will leave a balance in their Bitcoin accounts (as I plan to) thus decreasing the supply.

    If more operators move to paying with Bitcoin, it will be quite a bit of money infused into the Bitcoin market. I would think it would be enough that we see some movement in the price/value of the digital currency. Thoughts?
    It' s difficult to predict the price of BTC. I found this document https://www.rogerver.com/slides/HK20...rver%201.4.pdf
    Go to "Valuing Bitcoin" and "gambling", there is a prediction for the price.

  7. #27
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    I do not know if 4.8 billion for poker has to be either gambling profit or gambling turnover, but neither profit or turnover can be used in useful way for bitcoin valuation.

    Other examples of this bitcoin lover Roger Ver are just weak. For example Amazon does not pay 3% for credit cards, they have much better deal. Bitcoin now - before adoption - has very low transaction fees, but only because the people who mine bitcoins do it simultaneously with processing the transactions. So they have double stream of income. A lot of money from mining and pennies from transaction processing. if more people will start using the network and there will be less bitcoins to mine (after halving, next halving and next halving), the real price of transactions will rise significantly. It is a common hoax, that decentralised networks are more effective and cheaper. No they are generally not. The stability, independence and decentralization comes with a price. We do not pay the price now, but in future bitcoin users will have to pay premium.

    Here https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction is a chart with bitcoin transaction fees. It is oscilating around 8 USD per transaction now. We do not have to pay it only because processors/miners have now money from bitcoins mined. I guess the real fees will go up after halving as well.

    Another interesting chart: https://blockchain.info/charts/network-deficit. The bitcoin network is every day over 1M USD in deficit = this 1M+ must be crossfinanced from mining. It is not a problem. Bitcoin was designed like that in early stages, that miners will use the revenue to donate to transactions. But it is a big problem now if someone is blabbering about low transaction fees. Bitcoin does not need false arguments for its adoption.
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    Man - I wish I would have taken my own advice! The value of Bitcoin has increased pretty nicely over the last month! Like over $125 US if I am looking at an accurate chart. Not sure if my theory had anything to do with it but nonetheless sometimes its nice to just be lucky..
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    Quote Originally Posted by slotplayer View Post
    I saw the Winklevoss brothers on Fox business yesterday promoting the first licensed exchange called Gemini dot com.
    There is also another Crypto-currency called Ether (Etherum). This might be the next big one.

    I currently don't know enough about exchanges to know if Gemini is any good or not but it would be great if someone that does could check it out and let us know.
    Etherum up 40% since may 21st.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by TravG View Post
    Man - I wish I would have taken my own advice! The value of Bitcoin has increased pretty nicely over the last month! Like over $125 US if I am looking at an accurate chart. Not sure if my theory had anything to do with it but nonetheless sometimes its nice to just be lucky..
    Lucky??? You almost pissed me off The btc surge now had nothing to do with luck. I did not make my money with luck. There were clear arguments why btc should and did surge. I think the recent trend will continue and correction will come after halving. But I do not think there will be an opportunity to buy for the price that was here when this thread started. Only if very bad news would happen.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TravG View Post
    Man - I wish I would have taken my own advice! The value of Bitcoin has increased pretty nicely over the last month! Like over $125 US if I am looking at an accurate chart. Not sure if my theory had anything to do with it but nonetheless sometimes its nice to just be lucky..
    Agree, it's not luck. You haven't missed out yet either. Just buy and sit and wait and don't sweat any rollercoaster. You'll get very lucky long term.

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    Not lucky Just filthy rich!
    I believe the market still is not pricing in the changes in gambling and affiliate industry and the recent btc adoption. It is not that good now to hold after recent hike, but I am not selling my commissions now, so I think it still has value to buy even at 585USD.

    I see some btc bettors converted from regular traffic. It is not a lot, but they are there.
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    I have seen an increase in US bitcoin bettors.. slowly coming around, it's much easier than running backwards and forwards to a money transfer shop

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    Exactly. Once they switch to btc, it will be the last switch for them. Every one counts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by slotplayer View Post
    Etherum up 40% since may 21st.
    OK, I've just bought a load of this stuff, but wtf is it?!

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    1 of hundreds of new cryptocoins:
    https://coinmarketcap.com/
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    1 of hundreds of new cryptocoins:
    https://coinmarketcap.com/
    Oh shoot, I cant invest in all that lot hoping for one to come good. Better stick with the premier league outfit, btc.

    Are you involved heavily with any of the others?

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    No, not one cent invested to others. They are not "money" yet. The currencies differ a lot from technical standpoint. Some are more anonymous, some are less anonymous than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is deflationary, but some have various levels of inflation. Some are premined. Some are set up by corporations. Etc.

    I believe in adoption of bitcoin, not because it is the best cryptocurrency from the list, but because of Bitcoin network effect.

    Ether is interesting, because it can probably do more things than Bitcoin, like smart contracts or Ether can do it in easier way. But those other things are not the "money things". You can imagine that cryptocurrencies simply can play other role than being money (normal money can have also other functions, e.g. as toilet paper). But Bitcoin main purpose is really to be the money. That is why I invest into btc. But there are also smart contracts projects for btc: http://www.rootstock.io/.

    Recent surge of Ethereum is caused by another fuction of Ether, that is called DAO. DAO is something like cryptocorporation that can be owned and managed through Ethers (or something like that, it is sci-fi even for me). People were investing into DAO and they had to buy Ethereum to do it. There was no other way. So the ETH price surged.

    All those hundreds of other cryptocurrencies (incl. Ether) are called altcoins = alternatives to bitcoin. Recently the market cap of Ether went over 1 Billion in the hype. But it is too risky for me. In the past there were 3 altcoins that passed 1 Billion cap:
    1. Litecoin - recently has value slightly over 200 M and was much lower; it is the closest technology to Bitcoin and it is the first altcoin ever (so it is the second cryptocurrency after Bitcoin); still almost nobody is using Litecoins, I have seen them sometimes at darmarkets
    2. Auroracoin - it used to be crypto for iceland, they broke completely and now has ~ zero value
    3. Ripple - it uses advanced technology, there was a huge hype about ripple last year, exactly as now there is a hype about ether; also dropped below 20% of peak value. Adoption of ripple is slow. It was premined by corporation and they tried to do the things in very legal and transparent way. That is why they failed, even when they had interesting project that was something like Hawala.

    So now we have a 4th altcoin - ethereum - that everyone is talking about and that passed 1 billion mark. I will not buy it until I see that it is used as money. Next months and weeks will show. The problem for ethereum is that bitcoin network effect seized the space for other cryptocurrencies. I believe that there is a way how to slowly persuade John Does to buy, use and even hold a free alternative currency. But I do not believe that John Doe will accomodate to many currencies. That is too complicated. I believe the race will be won by one cryptocurrency. Every day Bitcoin exists, his chances are greater. Especially now when he appreciated by +200% during last months.
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    It is important not to be a victim of our own biases. Ethereum is up maybe 2000%+ compared to the price 8 months ago. But for sure it is crazy to think that investing randomly into all altcoins is 100% wise decision. There are many altcoins that come and go. The 8 months ago was still hot Ripple and its younger brother Stellar, which is now ending probably. There were shills promoting Monero and Dogecoin and Darkcoin.

    Now there are 2 new coins in top 10: Steem and Lisk. They appreciated in few days maybe in tripple digits. Any cryptocurrency has a fan base.

    I am just a silent observer of altcoin market. Nothing yet persuaded me to buy altcoins. Random spreading of small amounts of money between all altcoins has IMHO negative ROI. But the only relevant question here is: 8 months ago - was it possible to predict Ethereum surge and why? And why it should surge now after such crazy hike, when we always saw corrections after 1000%+ surges by cryptocurrencies? Even if Ethereum is good I believe there will be better time to buy it. Even if Bitcoin appreciates by 1000% I will sell a lot of my assets.
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    Quote Originally Posted by justbookies View Post
    OK, I've just bought a load of this stuff, but wtf is it?!
    This guy explains its practical uses. 10 minute video
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEJKLFH8q5c

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