Would you place a bet on the outcome of an election?

[MichaelCorfman]

Earlier this month betting on US elections became legally available to U.S. citizens, as reported in an article published by Barron's on October 11th:

Last-minute Legal Ruling Allows Betting On US Election

As noted in the article, "Those in favor of gambling -- or "event contracts" in finance terms -- say it is a legitimate way to hedge bets against adverse outcomes, likening it to futures contracts. Some also argue that the markets are better than polls. "These contracts are important," Steve Sanders, executive vice president of marketing and product development at Interactive Brokers, told AFP. "They're good for people to take a view on what they think is happening and hedge their portfolios.""

I first realized bets on US election results were legal in the states when Interactive Brokers, a large and well respected brokerage firm I use, started selling event contracts on a variety of election outcomes. For example, U.S. citizens can place bets on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win the overall US presidential election and who will win in a variety of battleground states.

You can see the complete list of election contracts they offer here:

forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/

For this weeks' poll I ask if you would place a bet on the outcome of an election. Beyond voting in the poll, I invite you to share your thoughts about betting on elections, and also whether such bets are legal where you live.

Michael Corfman

[MichaelBluejay]

There's an idea in game theory that you should bet on the outcome you *don't* want, that way, you come out a winner either way: you either get the outcome you wanted, or you get a payout as a consolation prize.

For example, say you wanted Trump to win. You'd bet on Harris. If Trump won you'd get your desired outcome, if Harris won you'd get a payout.

If you bet on the outcome you *want* then you can lose twice (undesired outcome, and as insult to injury, lost money). Punters who bet on their favorite sports team know this pain all too well.

[Cash Bonus]

Yes, of course I would, but I don't currently have any plans to do it just yet. I'll probably end up making a bet on an election before the year finishes and I'm quietly confident I'll be successful with it. If not, I'll just have to accept it the hard way and learn from it.

[newcustomeroffer]

I have done in the past on UK politics, I have no intention at present to get involved in the US election though. No desire to get into the 'politics' of it on here, but the US election looks mighty close and one which may not resolved anything like immediately.

It's undoubtedly much more straightforward here in the UK to bet on political outcomes compared to what you've described Michael, essentially it's just another betting market over here with various side-markets.

[Theratman]

There's an idea in game theory that you should bet on the outcome you *don't* want, that way, you come out a winner either way: you either get the outcome you wanted, or you get a payout as a consolation prize.

For example, say you wanted Trump to win. You'd bet on Harris. If Trump won you'd get your desired outcome, if Harris won you'd get a payout.

If you bet on the outcome you *want* then you can lose twice (undesired outcome, and as insult to injury, lost money). Punters who bet on their favorite sports team know this pain all too well.

There has to be a psychological term for this somewhere, undesirable outcome bet has a nice ring to it. I used to do that in crucial matches when I really, really didn't want my side to lose, but if they did the paid would be somewhat lessened by the money. Of course the financial return would have to be enough to achieve this.

Back to the OT, I might have a cheeky punt if the odds are right, but I'm sure the markets in my region are heavily limited, expecting something along the lines of a max $100 stake size, or something similar.

[edgarf76]

I think its a great idea but I have never placed a bet on an election.

[NoDepositCasinos]

I don't usually bet, and honestly, I don't see myself doing it in this election. Where I live, betting on elections falls into a gray area—it's not something that is officially promoted or that you can do at a registered platform. However, there are groups of people who organize and place bets not just for fun but also as an opportunity for "saving" (their words, it's their interpretation) and as a social activity.

[Pokerface]

Not this year, that's for sure. Far too close to even guess.