Betting systems, casinos and affiliates

[Mario The Gambler]

Do affiliate programs welcome traffic sent from a page about betting systems?



Obviously everyone knows that betting systems are derived from the martingale and can work in the short term but will inevitably fail on the long term.


However some people tell me that casinos and affiliate managers do not like players who play with a betting progression system.


In one of my blogs, I have a page dealing with betting systems. Since this page has decent traffic, I would want to put affiliate links.


What do you think? Good idea? Bad idea?

Do you think there are still online casinos and affiliate programs that react badly to betting systems?

Thank you very much in advance!

[ocreditor]

I think that as long as everything is transparent and the program knows what traffic you send them and the users know the consequences of their actions when they go to casino and try to beat the house and they might be blocked in cases of roulette systems (for example) so all is good

[Mario The Gambler]

Thank you for your insight Ocreditor.

Of course, my intention is to be transparent with the casinos. And my page on the betting systems is truthful. I do not make false promises.

But... my page speaks especially about roulette systems! LOL

[JackTenSuited]

I think that as long as everything is transparent and the program knows what traffic you send them and the users know the consequences of their actions when they go to casino and try to beat the house and they might be blocked in cases of roulette systems (for example) so all is good

Why would a casino want to block anyone using a 'system'?

[Mario The Gambler]

In the 60s, casinos have asked the Department of Computer Science of the Las Vegas University to test whether there was progressive betting systems that could beat the casinos.

Computer simulations clearly showed that no system could beat the casino's mathematical advantage and their maximum betting limit policy. In fact, in the long run, the simulations showed that players using a betting system lost more than flat betting players.

Why? Because their average bets were higher: the casinos advantage applied on larger sums of money.



So for me it's a little weird to think that affiliate programs are reluctant to traffic coming from visitors interested in betting systems! But this is what many tell me!

[ocreditor]

Why would a casino want to block anyone using a 'system'?

Its a good question !

But I was not referring to the system which are based on strategy etc'... I was referring to scam systems
which from the best of my knowledge some casinos dont like to have. But I might be also wrong here because I'm not an expert when it comes to betting systems!

HOWEVER, what I do know for sure is that affiliate programs like to know the type of traffic you send them in order to setup a deal, if for example you ask for CPA deals which might effect the value of players etc..

[DaftDog]

Its a good question !

But I was not referring to the system which are based on strategy etc'... I was referring to scam systems
which from the best of my knowledge some casinos dont like to have. But I might be also wrong here because I'm not an expert when it comes to betting systems!

HOWEVER, what I do know for sure is that affiliate programs like to know the type of traffic you send them in order to setup a deal, if for example you ask for CPA deals which might effect the value of players etc..

You can't scam a casino with a roulette betting system. You can't even use a card counting system in online blackjack as the deck/s are shuffled after each hand.

So betting systems are not casino scams.

[Maddi]

If I owned a casino I would welcome martingale players with open arms!

[khansen]

Martingale is nice in theory, but in theory only...

[Mario The Gambler]

You can't scam a casino with a roulette betting system. You can't even use a card counting system in online blackjack as the deck/s are shuffled after each hand.

So betting systems are not casino scams.

You are absolutely right.




Some system vendors argue that their system is a way to "scam" casinos. So this is perhaps why Ocreditor (and others, I'm sure) may believe that betting systems are scams.


Obviously, this is totally wrong. The only person that system vendors defraud, it is the customers who spend money for something that is fun, that can help you win in the short term, that will make you lose in the long term and that we can find free on the internet.


My hypothesis is that casino's manager and affiliate programs managers are like everyone else. Some believe (naively) that systems work and they are afraid of them. Others know that it does not work and have no objection to welcome players interested in martingales and systems.

So I think I'll go ahead with my idea to place affiliate links on this page.

[Roulette Zeitung]

Hello Mario,

more than the half of all persons in this industry have no knowledge about gambling, the math, the background, history or something else. You only need to read the [rubbish] content, then you know where the wind is blowing.

A smart player never will play against a RNG, because this has nothing to do with real chance. You can't beat a machine or a RNG (random number generator), because a machine or RNG doesn't care about ballistics, figure laws, personal permanence, empiric expectation value or equilibrium.

A professional gambler will use these techniques and plays only in real casinos or with live dealers online, where the roulette wheel or touch bet is certainly not rigged. Dublin Bet Casino is a good example for a good place to play, because you play tables from a real and life operating casino. It's the Fitzwilliam Casino in Dublin.

The fallacy with long term statistics

1. It's only a analyze based on sober MATH at ONE table. A professional player is switching between different tables and dealers based on different pattern and experiences of decades, and EMPIRIC is very different to MATH, and this is reason, why the profit of so many casinos is higher than the house edge.

2. There is no player who bets 1.000.000 spins in this life. It's simply too short. And nobody is playing one table from the beginning to the end 24h/365d, but all these long term analyzes based on it. It's nonsense. Every system has downswings and upswings. A smart player recognize when a system goes up or down and is adjusting his betting style. He is e.g. playing a short 3 step Martingale (1-2-3) when the system is balanced, a winning progression when the system works well (2-3-5) or the Contra (!) D'Alembert system if the system will produce long series of hits and losses. The system itself - no doubt - must be good and a professional player juggles with more than one system.

The predictions of the coming tendency of a system by a smart player are correct in 11 out of 20 attempts. If a casino bans player because of their winnings - as 888 is doing it - then this is not the problem of the player or the webmaster. It's a shame and a reputation problem for the casino.

Leopold

[MMM]

The aff programs are worried not about getting that traffic, but about paying high CPA for that traffic.
If you are transparent - not a problem.

Btw, I would recommend negotiating CPA deal.

[universal4]

I think it should be noted that when a player uses a "system" and loses nothing is done, but if a player uses (as an example the martingale system) and gets lucky and wins the casino will void their winning, and often block them for using a "system".

Rick
Universal4

[JackTenSuited]

Only if the casino in question is looking for any excuse to steal their money. No casino in their right mind will close a persons account for using a martingale system.

[Progger]

Magnetpower on Bwin but im sure other brands - same game!

https://youtu.be/0x5RWOkGj88?t=6s

[Roulette Zeitung]

Magnetpower on Bwin but im sure other brands - same game!

https://youtu.be/0x5RWOkGj88?t=6s

For me it looks like a CGI more than a real wheel.

Have you a video sequence for me with a longer footage including the live dealer who is spinning the ball before the wheel fills the screen?

If this is a CGI, then it's the same as with RNGs. Players are part of forlorn hope.
It's sheer suicide to bet on it.

Leopold

[Progger]

Im not sure but i think is a real weel...check the shadows from the table and the link on browser bar include "live dealer".

And no i dont have the full video..i found it randomly.

regards

[Roulette Zeitung]

Magnetpower on Bwin but im sure other brands - same game!

https://youtu.be/0x5RWOkGj88?t=6s

For me it looks like a CGI more than a real wheel.

Have you a video sequence for me with a longer footage including the live dealer who is spinning the ball before the wheel fills the screen?

If this is a CGI, then it's the same as with RNGs. Players are part of forlorn hope.
It's sheer suicide to bet on it.

Leopold

Im not sure but i think is a real weel...check the shadows from the table and the link on browser bar include "live dealer".

regards

Shadows are made easy with CGI, and the assertion "live dealer" means nothing in this industry. Only if a real live dealer is present and visible and only if the process of spinning the ball and zoom-in of the wheel is visible without cuts, then you have a real wheel on your screen.

Even if this would be a real wheel. If there is no live dealer visible, then the player is betting - without any chance - against pre-recorded spins, and outcome is usually a foregone conclusion to the favor of the casino.

If I have some time, I will investigate this further. As you know, my way of working takes some time but it's thorough.

You say, this wheel is present at Bwin, my "old friends" with more than 60 Black Jack hands in a row without dealer bust?

Sidenote: Probability of dealer bust ist 28%.

Leopold

[universal4]

I would have to agree if it was found out to be cgi and yet claiming to be a live dealer spinning the wheel then that would be ummm (no other way to say it) fraudulent or a lie.....

At least those games that claim to be RNG are not claiming to be something they are not.

In the cases mentioned above, I have no proof that the situations are either way, but in my own personal opinion, if a casino is claiming live dealer games, then they should in fact use live dealer video feeds of the ACTUAL game the player is playing and not any kind of video representation of the live dealer game.

Rick
Universal4

[Progger]

Ok..this cgi...or is this a real weel ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmxlpJOudJQ