Gambling market bans almost never come out of nowhere. Some observations

[Valge]

Something I've noticed watching a few markets lately. There's usually a pattern that you can follow before market bans. It usually shows up months before anything official happens.

Chile was a great example, the state lottery operators filed a lawsuit well before any real enforcement. When an incumbent stops competing and starts calling regulators instead, meaning that something is usually already moving behind the scenes.

Brazil this year as well, Pixbet got raided across five states, 549 CPFs of dead people in the scheme, over a billion reals frozen, as a result the licence gone the same day. Regulators need a viral story to attach to it. Looking at Lula right now, he had already been saying he is ready to shut down all betting, and that kind of statement from a head of state usually means something is already drafted.

Also, banks and payment providers tighten requirements before the regulator acts. Denmark blocked Inpay from new iGaming deals specifically over weak AML controls. Money gets cut off faster than laws get passed.

The strange thing about Brazil right now is it's showing the opposite signals simultaneously, crackdown and increasing transparency. Not sure what to make of that, honestly. Maybe both things are just true at once.

[universal4]

Interesting observation.

Let's see if you are right.

Rick
Universal4

[Valge]

Update on Brazil.

Reuters confirmed on September 17 that Lula is preparing an executive order to ban online casino operations before the October 4 election. Sports betting and sponsorship deals would be preserved.

As of Wednesday night UOL reported the government is now treating the text as closer to a total extinction of online gaming, not just casinos. The instrument takes effect the moment it's published, Congress has 120 days to approve or reject it after the fact.

This might be a serious problem for operators, because online casinos move 73.9% of Brazil's total betting money. Almost all 188 licensed operators run sportsbooks and casinos together. Operators paid $5.8 million each for licences. The Finance Ministry designed the licensing system and is still working through the consequences of dismantling it before the licences expire.

Lula called betting "a disease rather than a game" this week. The election is in 13 days.

[universal4]

Sad they imply all betting is automatically problem gambling, and if so, there should be zero licenses sold or taxes collected. But like we have seen so many times with any kind of regulation, they want the license fees and tax money, and then they try and make the entire industry look bad so they can raise the fees and tax more. (for the good of the people of course)

Rick
Universal4

[Sherlock]

I spent half of my life in Latin America, most of it in Brasil. I had to leave it because of unbearable weather and because of the madness. There is just chaos, nothing else. I am totally honest. I spent over a decade there thinking about common questions like HOW? or WHY? But I got mad of it. In Brazil things just happen totally randomly. The only solution for everything is sex and football. It makes no sense to look for some logical explanations when it is about Brasil.

Hmmm Chile. Chile... after all is just Brasil that likes to be perceived as non-latin country. But it is still Latin America. So again: makes no sense to look for some logical explanation.

If something explains Latin America it is magical realism of Marquez.

Every latin politician or person with a power (be it a local manager in Mc Donald) is corrupted to the bone. If there is a contradiction it means there is some conflict of interest of different mafias (with some hidden tragi-comical connotation).

All that said the informal sector and informal money flows are here a vital part of economy. So gambling will be always present here. Just remember "jogo do bicho" case. Illegal for decades. Thriving.

[arix]

brazil is crazy if that goes through. they spent years building the licensing system and now might kill casinos weeks before an election. anyone with BR traffic should probably not put all eggs there right now

[Valge]

Exactly

[Sherlock]

No one sane would ever cooperate with normal Brasilian company if not tortured. Brazilian grey market works fine today and it will work fine even tomorrow.

[NoDepositCasinos]

I live in Latin America, so maybe I am too close to see the kind of pattern you’re describing. My experience has been similar to Sherlock's.

If there is a pattern here, it is the madness itself: having to deal with different layers of authority, both legal and informal, operating at the same time and often pulling in different directions.

[keyser]

Interesting observation. Money flows between corrupted governors. Need to check who controlled the businesses there and if he is still on duty.

[Valge]

So he did eventually. Lula signed a provisional measure this afternoon banning online betting entirely, effective immediately. No new deposits from the moment of publication. Websites and apps go dark on October 6. Players have until October 5 to withdraw, operators must return all remaining funds by October 14 regardless of whether players request it. State bank Caixa Econômica Federal handles any unresolved cases after that.
Running alongside it is a criminal bill proposing 4 to 6 years imprisonment for anyone who runs, operates or promotes sports betting, and 2 to 4 years for payment intermediaries.

Roughly 90 licensed operators, each of whom paid $5.8 million for a government-issued licence less than two years ago. ANJL has already announced legal action, calling it unprecedented globally and warning of tax revenue losses, job cuts, and players migrating to illegal alternatives.