Have you ever placed a bet in a prediction market?

[MichaelCorfman]

Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing segments of online wagering and financial speculation over the past couple of years. Unlike traditional sports betting or casino gambling, prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events, with prices fluctuating based on what traders believe is likely to happen. Markets can cover everything from politics and economics to entertainment and sports-related topics. Although prediction markets have recently gained major attention in the United States through platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as related legal and regulatory battles, similar markets and betting exchanges have existed internationally for years, particularly in the UK (e.g., Betfair) and parts of Europe and Asia.

The growing interest in prediction markets is also beginning to show up at industry events. Later this year, two conferences focused on the sector are scheduled to take place: PREDICT 2026 and NEXT Predict: New York City 2026. The emergence of dedicated conferences suggests that prediction markets are evolving from a niche curiosity into a more established part of the broader gaming, fintech, and trading industries.

Have you ever used a prediction market yourself? If so, what did you bet on, and what was the experience like? Do you see prediction markets as gambling, investing, trading, or something else entirely?

I decided to try one myself late last year just to see how these markets actually work. On Dec. 24, 2024, I placed a small $5 “YES” position through Interactive Brokers on the question: “Will Congress raise or suspend the debt ceiling by January 1, 2025?” It was less about the wager itself and more about understanding the user experience and seeing firsthand how these markets work.

Michael

[basports.com]

While I personally use several offshore sportsbooks and a few large onshore - but not of the legal variety - books, I've also used Kalshi, the first major prediction market which is now regulated by the US federal government through the CFTC - the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission.

My experience at Kalshi has been this: I've recently placed several sports bets on MLB games, but small for me - in the $500 range. I believe I've won 4 in a row after a initial loss, and every time a winner resolved to a "yes" position - meaning I won the bet - funds were instantly available to withdraw with no fees whatsoever if one withdraws via your PayPal account, and from there, PayPal charges no fees for you to withdraw directly to your bank account by an ACH.

The funding process is the reverse - again with no fees - and similar to what the crypto broker I use, Kraken, does - when you deposit funds to Kalshi and elect to do so through PayPal [you initiate this process entirely on the Kalshi platform], besides zero fees, those funds are instantly available for use on Kalshi. Furthermore, a couple days ago I withdrew a bit over $1100 for the settlement of a winning bet, and from the moment I asked for a cash out from Kalshi to go to PayPal, it took about 3 minutes to arrive in my PayPal account, and when PayPal was asked for a withdrawal to my bank account, that was done within less than 5 minutes more. All very admirable. Negatives? I can't really see any compared to many offshore books - and especially legal American onshore books.

Compare what I've just described to so many offshore sports books that are very slow in reluctantly paying you your winnings. And on our website, we make our clients aware of what they may expect if they win too consistently at both FanDuel & DraftKings, offering screenshots of what the DraftKings CEO had to say about those who win on their platform [you're not welcome], and the possibly slow payouts that may occur if you do win too much and too often, and the prospect of having your betting limits cut to the bone.

We recently had a client of ours tell us he was cut from betting $500 down to $8 a bet, which is patently ludicrous, but totally consistent with not wanting a user to win more money than they lose but to merely use these legal books for "entertainment" purposes, as the DraftKings CEO told an investor conference in that screenshot we show on our website.

Being in the business of selling our sports predictions for almost a half-century, we are very aware of the need for a successful long-term sports bettor of betting into good, solid lines. And my personal experience after using the Kalshi platform tells me that's the case there.

Because it's a very rapidly growing entity, the liquidity it offers on major events such as college & pro sports is excellent, and there seems to always be the opportunity for anyone smart enough to beat the odds [with a bit of help from us, if they're our clients] to make profits from their bets.

Dr. Bob Akmens
CEO

[Knowlesgarry]

Yes, and I bet in them occasionally.

[Pokerface]

No interest in placing bets in prediction markets but I do enjoy reading some of them.

[Cash Bonus]

No, I have never done that before, but it's something that I certainly intend to do very soon and this year.

[Franky]

Voted "No interest" — prediction markets are betting with a fresh coat of paint, and a few years ago I caught myself drifting into casino streams that started fun and turned into something else when wine got involved. Pulled out before it became a real problem and now I just keep a clean line around anything that triggers that loop.

Only exception — when an affiliate program forces a payout into a casino balance and there's not enough for withdrawal, I'll spin a few slots to clear it. That's about it.

Curious where Kalshi and Polymarket end up on the regulatory side though — that's the more interesting story for the affiliate side of this room than the betting itself.

[GlobalPokerSites]

Yes (Polymarket mainly)

[NoDepositCasinos]

No, I haven’t, and I don’t plan to. That said, prediction markets don’t feel as distant to me personally as other forms of gambling. I think part of the reason is that they often show up in my feeds as news, and I read about them quite frequently, even though, at the end of the day, they may not really be.