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  1. #1
    MJM
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    Default Affiliate Programs + Weighted Decay vs First or Last Click?

    An AM at a trusted program I work with reached out with this question, I suggested to him we take it to GPWA for feedback. What is your opinion?

    I am in the process of changing our software, either using a 3rd party source or rebuilding our own. I’m heavily leaning towards using a weighted time decay model vs either first or last click. I wanted to get your thoughts on it as well before we get to far into the process.

    The two issues with that are:
    I’m not sure which the affiliates prefer in the end. I know most are currently last click. What are your thoughts on time decay weighted? (I’ll put my proposal below)
    Almost none of the 3rd party software I’ve looked at support weighted models of any type.

    Which leads to us building it.


    Assuming we build it, I do want to make every click as transparent as possible. So for each click the affiliate viewing it would see any Brand they have access to with the name, other affiliate brands would show as a generic term such as “Affiliate #1” (privacy etc..)

    Accounts would also show percent ownership for each affiliate etc.

    System would be capable of CPA, Rev Share or Hybrid (partial CPA partial net revenue).





    Possible proposed system:

    Each link click from any source is worth X points.
    Points expire at X per period.
    When a user signs up multiple affiliates could be holding “points”. Each affiliate owns a portion of that account.

    So… lets say
    Each link click is worth 10 points.
    They expire at 1 point per week.

    I click a link for Affiliate A
    A week later I click a link for Affiliate B
    A week later I signup.

    Affiliate A has 8 points (10 – 2 points per week)
    Affilaite B has 9 points.

    Total points is 17
    Affiliate A is credited 52% of the account (9/17)
    Affilaite B is credit 48% of the account (8/17)

    Affiliate A is a netrevenue share model at 30% net revenue.
    For this customer they will get a netrevenue share of 30% * 52% or 15.6%

    Affiliate B is a CPA model with $75 CPA.
    For this account they will receive a $36 CPA ($75 * 48%)

  2. #2
    universal4's Avatar
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    My opinion, which is obviously not shared by all, doesn't need any extreme research or complicated algorithms or fancy math.

    Last click

    The affiliate that "makes the sale" deserves the commission.

    Sure it might be nice to earn a portion of a commission for someone else "closing the sale", but that alone will lead to abuse. Anyone that has been around a LONG TIME will remember the big scandal of casino profit and the cookie stuffing, and was in rat to what led to a larger push toward "last click" as well as over-writeable cookies higher on the lists of many affiliates back in those days.

    Rick
    Universal4

  3. #3
    universal4's Avatar
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    Default

    Let's look at an example of Visitor 1

    Visitor 1 is looking for a new casino to try and is browsing affiliate sites.

    They find the portal from Affiliate #A and see they are advertising dozens and dozens of casinos. They see a casino name that had not previously joined and think it might hold potential to be their choice, so they click the link and view the bonus offer. They are tempted but not convinced, so they go back to google to research the casino more.

    They end up landing on the affiliate portal of Affiliate #B.
    They read the review of the casino under consideration, and it is more of a rah rah type review, talking about all the good, and how they will win etc etc etc and click the link.

    But something stops them from joining, as it sinks in, "gee that last article was too positive and did not cover any of the bad, or potential risks, I am not convinced" so they go back to google and adjust their search query.

    Now they end up on Affiliate #C website and have found a very thorough and more honest approach to a review. They read about the good as well as the few down sides, a more in depth review of the bonus terms, or past issues players possibly experienced, but overall as a seasoned casino player they understand the risks and decide to join. They follow the link from Affiliate #C and sign up.


    Fancy complicated algorithms could possibly mean that Affiliate #1 and Affiliate #2 might mean that they get a share in the commission.

    #A might have had nothing but a list of links or a table of casinos on their home page or whatever, but they did not convince the player to join.
    #B was close to closing the sale, but didn't quite pull it off, and will possibly close potential sales of other visitors but did not do so in this scenario.

    #C did close the sale, whether by working harder, having better content, a better approach or whatever factor that did the trick.

    Why wouldn't #C deserve the commission?
    Why should #C share the commission with #A and #B?

    There may be further debate and clarifications as well as examples where some affiliates may show justification as to why #A or #B might have earned a portion of said commissions, so I am interested to see the debate.

    An extreme example maybe, but one scenario that could be played out, in different formats over and over with thousands or visitors.

    An affiliate that does the job of closing the sale better makes me want to improve the job my site does closing sales, not just strive for more click through's alone, just to get in line for a possible piece of a commission someone else earns.


    Rick
    Universal4

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  5. #4
    ddm
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    Quote Originally Posted by universal4 View Post

    The affiliate that "makes the sale" deserves the commission.
    agree 100000%

  6. #5
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    any spammer can get a click but it takes a lot more hard work to convert into a sale.. i wouldnt go anyhwere near that type of model you suggest as it has no benefit to me as i target quality over volume.

  7. #6
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    Default

    Yeah I think they're over thinking things. Last click is pretty simple and makes the most sense to me.
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  8. #7
    MJM
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    Default

    Personally I agree with last click in theory but in practice a LOT of times the portal that truly earned the sale gets shafted by a last second search to see if any better promo codes are out there.

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  10. #8
    ddm
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJM View Post
    LOT of times the portal that truly earned the sale gets shafted by a last second search to see if any better promo codes are out there.
    - casino: a good time to explain to players that bonuses are for chumps- and not to take it.. (show them the math ]

    - sports, yea, ok - but you can tell them it's the biggest avail bonus to mimimize this factor

  11. #9
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    The difficulty they will have with their decay model is that not every affiliate click has the same value or level of intent behind it.

    For example consider two clicks:
    1) Click from an affiliate who is ranking number 1 for "online casino"
    2) Click from an affiliate that is ranking number 1 for "online casino bonus no deposit or wagering requirements"

    If you where to bid on these with google adwords the CPCs would be significantly different (as an example of the market value), therefore for the model to be truly fair you'd also need to measure an evaluate the traffic sources to the affiliate.

    Im also ignoring all the cross-device/cross-browser issues that make this model unreliable.

    Easiest approach in my view is as follows:
    1) Reward on last click with a 90 day cookie window
    2) Monitor the "conversion assists" and where possible reward affiliates who are playing a key role in top of funnel activity. This would be greatly appreciated as no one else does this (that I am aware of).

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  13. #10
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    Last click imho developed as protection against spam. And I think it works well even when it is not fair (nothing is). Anything else will lead just to more spam.

    And I agree that anything that is hypercomplicated will fail. It looks like some programmer's project. Those people like to add too complicated things and the result is the internet in 2021 where nothing works and everything is fragile.

    They should focus on accurate tracking. It would be nice to have doubletracking, because cookies are not enough. To track apps if they have etc. This is enough to have a headache.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  15. #11
    BonusFinder is offline Private Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    Last click imho developed as protection against spam. And I think it works well even when it is not fair (nothing is). Anything else will lead just to more spam.

    And I agree that anything that is hypercomplicated will fail. It looks like some programmer's project. Those people like to add too complicated things and the result is the internet in 2021 where nothing works and everything is fragile.

    They should focus on accurate tracking. It would be nice to have doubletracking, because cookies are not enough. To track apps if they have etc. This is enough to have a headache.
    Spam is a very good point, if an affiliate was buying a huge amount of pop-unders which basically means dropping cookies, they can easily skew the decay model in their favour

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  17. #12
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    Yes, that is what I meant. Thanks for clarification. It is really hard to express something that is obvious to writer, but maybe not to readers. Popunders and popups are the last creative that works and that has working market out of official=google reach. Which is important when we speak about gambling that is not loved by google.

    In future maybe some more markets will have mercy by Google, but exactly those markets will be dead for affiliates. And conversely: the markets where will be grey and black operators will be a no-go zone by google, but affiliate marketing and pop-up market will work there.

    So the implication is that this industry needs the last cookie dropping model. It is good for affiliates and it should be ok also for casinos, because while affiliates contest for the last cookie, they make them "free promotion". Yes, it is not fair, for those who do not get the last cookie as OP stated. Affiliates should simply adjust.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  18. #13
    baldidiot is offline Private Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJM View Post
    Personally I agree with last click in theory but in practice a LOT of times the portal that truly earned the sale gets shafted by a last second search to see if any better promo codes are out there.
    I'll be honest, I didn't think of this. But I have had concerns over losing accounts this way so perhaps you do have a point.

    You can see it in retail on platforms like awin when you get credited with an assist, often the time frame is so short it's pretty obvious that they've just googled a promo code and that site has taken the sale.

    Best thing would be to get rid of the promo code boxes.
    onlinegamblingwebsites.com - Formally known as goodbonusguide.

  19. #14
    MJM
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldidiot View Post
    Best thing would be to get rid of the promo code boxes.
    + a million. I've said this since the pokerstars marketing code days - operators are costing themselves hundreds of millions of dollars a year by having these track.

  20. #15
    baldidiot is offline Private Member
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    Back in the very early days a lot of places didn't even have bonuses without codes and they often didn't have the codes on their sites - so they were basically forcing people to go hunting for them if they wanted a bonus. I'm thinking of places like party casino in the early 2000's.
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