Bet365 affiliate account valuation

[damage83]

Hi all

I have seen a few people on here selling their affiliate accounts and I tempted to do the same for similar reasons. Firstly though I need a true valuation of the account as I would not have any clue what a fair price would be. I would say it is a fairly active account but could do with more promoting. Majority of players will be UK. Stats for last 3 years are below.

May 2013-May 2014 deposit £14.497 turnover £63.821 total revenue £5052
May 2014-May 2015 deposit £30.752 turnover £158.235 total revenue £7638
May 2015- May 2016 deposit £33.927 turnover £141.609 total revenue £8320

Any info is greatly appreciate thanks.

[Sherlock]

Idk what is May 13-14. They have stats for one day only.

Impossible to make a valuation on this sample of probably 3 days. I guess it will be just one whale you caught (otherwise you would provide lifetime stats). So it is a black swan. Something we all wish for, but impossible to predict. It is like if you come to different country, you get out of the airport and in 5 minutes you see someone being killed in car accident. You can not predict much from that about mortality rate on streets in that country.

I assume you have UK traffic mostly. Each UK player is worth of many hundreds at Bet365 on average (it depends a lot what kind of website do you have, e.g. how lame and how wealthy your bettors are). Your average will be slightly bigger, because you probably can produce whales. That is the only estimate I can give you.

[damage83]

Lol that is yearly figures. May 2015-2016, sorry would have thought that was fairly obvious considering the total revenue. If I was able to get that amount per day I certainly would not want to sell

[overthehill]

Idk what is May 13-14. They have stats for one day only.

Impossible to make a valuation on this sample of probably 3 days. I guess it will be just one whale you caught (otherwise you would provide lifetime stats). So it is a black swan. Something we all wish for, but impossible to predict. It is like if you come to different country, you get out of the airport and in 5 minutes you see someone being killed in car accident. You can not predict much from that about mortality rate on streets in that country.

I assume you have UK traffic mostly. Each UK player is worth of many hundreds at Bet365 on average (it depends a lot what kind of website do you have, e.g. how lame and how wealthy your bettors are). Your average will be slightly bigger, because you probably can produce whales. That is the only estimate I can give you.

Think he's showing us sample months year on year so we are seeing stats from May for the last three years. I could be wrong though but even if I'm right it doesn't tell us anything about the account. How many ftds, deposits, active players etc etc

[overthehill]

Lol that is yearly figures. May 2015-2016, sorry would have thought that was fairly obvious considering the total revenue. If I was able to get that amount per day I certainly would not want to sell

So those figures are for the last three years? It's not very clear in my opinion and it doesn't tell us much anyway. Would need a proper breakdown of all the stats to even begin to try and put a price on it

[damage83]

Okay we have 145 sign ups,39 ftd, 6457 active users 81 casino sessions In the 3 years. Anything else needed let me know thanks.

[overthehill]

Okay we have 145 sign ups,39 ftd, 6457 active users 81 casino sessions In the 3 years. Anything else needed let me know thanks.

So is it all casino and no sport? Also what is the total value of deposits?

[damage83]

No it is mostly sports. Casino commission is very little to be honest so that figure is pretty irrelevant. Total value of deposits in 3 years is £74,643, sports net revenue £18,095, Casino Net £354, Bingo Net £707

[overthehill]

No it is mostly sports. Casino commission is very little to be honest so that figure is pretty irrelevant. Total value of deposits in 3 years is £74,643, sports net revenue £18,095, Casino Net £354, Bingo Net £707

The three years in your first post, the revenue that you quote is Bet365 total revenue or your yearly commission? Sorry for all the question, just trying to help you get a fair valuation!

[damage83]

That's okay, the figure is revenue, Commission in total for the 3 years is £5748

[Sherlock]

Lol, sorry It is still hard to predict. It is a bet on fidelity of the 39 ftd to bet365 and maybe conversion of some of the 145-39 ftd (but I think bet365 now closes accounts in one year without action). Plus it is a bet on consistency of bet365. The value is IMHO between low and mid/midhigh 5 figures (if the revenue was your netto revenue and not overall revenue - my bet365 stats show only overall revenue).

But ofc I would not pay for that even low 5 figures and the amount I would pay would vary a lot based on information about you, your website and day by day stats.

[damage83]

Yeah I get where your coming from but I think different people may look at different things. The players are pretty consistent every day. Even now with little football I still get minimum 10 players betting per day. Good to hear your input though thanks.

Lol, sorry It is still hard to predict. It is a bet on fidelity of the 39 ftd to bet365 and maybe conversion of some of the 145-39 ftd (but I think bet365 now closes accounts in one year without action). Plus it is a bet on consistency of bet365. The value is IMHO between low and mid/midhigh 5 figures (if the revenue was your netto revenue and not overall revenue - my bet365 stats show only overall revenue).

But ofc I would not pay for that even low 5 figures and the amount I would pay would vary a lot based on information about you, your website and day by day stats.

[overthehill]

I always think it's very hard to value an affiliate account because there are so many variables. The main one being that you never know when players will stop playing, with the figures you provided it wouldn't come a s a shock if 90% of your income was made up from just one or two players. Because of the risk I would want my investment back in six months so if your total commission over 3 years is roughly £6000 that equates to about £2000 a year so on that basis I would pay probably £1000 maximum.
I'm sure that's not a figure you would sell for and maybe others would value it differently but I wouldn't risk more.

[damage83]

Total net revenue £19.163 in 3 years by the way.

[damage83]

Yeah of course £1000 would be out of the question and to get rid of an affiliate account just so someone could make their money back within 6 months is not exactly appealing considering these would be their customers for life so would want a far better offer than that. Thanks for the reply anyway hopefully others may have a look if interested.

I always think it's very hard to value an affiliate account because there are so many variables. The main one being that you never know when players will stop playing, with the figures you provided it wouldn't come a s a shock if 90% of your income was made up from just one or two players. Because of the risk I would want my investment back in six months so if your total commission over 3 years is roughly £6000 that equates to about £2000 a year so on that basis I would pay probably £1000 maximum.
I'm sure that's not a figure you would sell for and maybe others would value it differently but I wouldn't risk more.

[Sherlock]

Well I even did not know if you are selling it. I was thinking you were maybe just interested in future value of your account for your own financial plans. IMO it makes no sense to sell good rev share accounts. Even less sense when interest rates and overall ROI of economy is zero.

I just said what I would pay and it is almsot always less than the honest seller wants. I am not a buyer. But if I were I would be curious why you are selling it. And yes, the commission is relevant, not revenue, so my previous estimation has to be slashed by 70%. I was thinking you have quite big highrollers inside.

[blendtec]

Probably 10-12k, whoever is buying it is obviously looking to make money from it so it'd be difficult to pay over 12 months average revenue because player numbers will most likely drop and there isn't exactly a huge player base.

I would probably pay 8-10 months average revenue at the very most.

[Jokerman99]

Probably 10-12k, whoever is buying it is obviously looking to make money from it so it'd be difficult to pay over 12 months average revenue because player numbers will most likely drop and there isn't exactly a huge player base.

I would probably pay 8-10 months average revenue at the very most.

I doubt anyone would pay 10-12k to be honest. That's a gross overvaluation. He's had 39 FTD lifetime, who knows when they will stop playing. 2k would be a reasonable price to pay. Anything over that is relatively high risk.

[Sherlock]

That is a risk that can be taken by someone who has bankroll. As I said elsewhere, I have changed trackers many times at bet365, I had also separate trackers for UK. So I see the retention rates and yields after years. The value estimation should be between 0.3 x (high 4 figures to midhigh 5 figures) = from 5 to 18K. I think anything under 5K should have certain value, if everything else is as should be. There are other risks that concern me, than the risk that they will stop playing (credibility of the seller, uncertainity where the traffic is from..).

But the main problem here might be that people who can take the risk = the ones who have enough money to swallow the loses, will probably not bother with negotiation. Their expected gain is quite small, so it is not worth of the time. So even when my lowest estimation is like 5K, I would expect to sell it for much less. And it makes no sense to sell even if you are going to let the affiliate account die out, because bet365 are credible and probably will pay you for long time.

[damage83]

Thanks for the comments guys I'm guessing most would probably say a few thousand max. As mentioned I was only looking to get a quick estimation to see if the account is worth selling. I do not promote as much as I can anymore and a lump sum would honestly be more beneficial for me right now than waiting 8-12 months. Of course I know there are other factors that a buyer would need to consider such as a daily breakdown of stats etc but no real need to waste my time getting all that info until I actually get a buyer who was interested.

I did not even know it was possible to sell an account until I come across the forum and I have saw many that have successfully sold their accounts so it did make me wonder.