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  1. #41
    Sherlock's Avatar
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    That is a cheap lesson still - 10%. We are all learning or can learn if we can bear the pain of feeling stupid. The situation you describe is typical. Every day when I wake up I think why the hell I did not buy in autumn 2011 in 2-5 USD range. Instead of that I even wrote idiotic statement on one betting forum that I am confident that it will surpass one day 1K USD and that it is a good pick.

    Next time just put your money where your mouth is. You will lose many times too, but at least you will not feel as a coward. And that feeling helps with all future judgements.

    Tonight there is a correction in China, but I think the trend is still bullish. Only another hack or some glitch in code can stop it.
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  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sherlock View Post
    I am afraid that the best source of information about bitcoin and affiliates is right here. It is a new territory. It has been taken seriously only for few months in gambling.

    As for "Bitcoin with gambling" (probably gambling with Bitcoin). There are 2 still distinct kinds:
    1. Casinos and bookies and affiliates denominated only in BTC. They target specific sort of people who already are bitcoiners/hodler whales. There are even special games that are (Yes maybe in future we will see blockchain powered casinos, but that will not be bitcoin, beause those games would be provably fair.).
    2. Regular casinos, that use btc only for transfers. The bitcoin is useful only at restricted territories (for now mostly USA), where it is too costly to move "normal money".

    If you want to learn about the case nr1, go probably to bitcointalk, bitcoin reddits
    If you want to know about nr2, go to forums with US gamblers (Covers, Sportsbookreview, 2+2...).

    Generally speaking the bitcoin world and the gambling world are two different worlds. It is mainly because when some people own or talk about bitcoin or blockchain, they create kind of a cult of idiots, who talk about not so important things and this disgusts every outsider. But Bitcoin is not only for the weird people who already own it.
    Thanks.

    I signed up for the Coursera course about the BitCoin and CryptoCurrencies Technologies but it didn't started yet (was supposed to start in September).

  3. #43
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    I certainly may be wrong, but I do not think people from universities can provide in-depth analysis about anything and much less about bitcoin. It may be a good introduction indeed. But it may also lead you to very distorted reality full of bullshit. The have found taht people who tend to talk about cryptocurrencies either do not know very much or have their own interests (like get-rich-schemes with altcoins). DIY fueled with curiosity here is the best. I am amazed by bitcoin for 5 years, for 2 years I take it really seriously, but still I have an impression that I know nothing. Literally each week I find something new that causes that my beliefs have to be adjusted. It is a very interesting world.

    In a way it is the same as affiliate business (even when much more complex probably). I doubt many of us went to the course and made money because of that. I guess it was pure curiosity, luck and "circumstances".
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  4. #44
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    you can't rely on such things as bitcoin.. you can never know

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casinorep View Post
    What's ironic is that I agreed with most of you that Bitcoin will rise past $700 and to hold on to mine until it does. Yet failing to stick to my gun, I sold it at $630 and now I feel the punch in the gut when I see it surpasses $700....
    But this month you can repeat the task and w8 for 800 (in case 800 is being reached by the time we are paid, you can wait for 900)!
    Just a reminder: resistance is being expected around 770-800 USD or 5185 CNY (CNY depreciated recently), which was this year high. If this is broken, we might see something quite wild and positive for HODLers.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
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  6. #46
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    Forecast for next year?

    University of Princeton released his Bitcoin book for download for free, I got already a copy of it

  7. #47
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    Let me find my magic crystal ball. Well sorry, it is lost.
    Seriously: the best avaiable forecast, but usually wrong at once, is the current spot price. That is the same with any asset.

    With Bitcoin it is pretty much complicated, because it can be affected by many factors (e.g. like exchange rate of GBP and other currencies was affected by Brexist). The difference between bitcoin and other much more liquid assets is, that any ral factor can change the price rapidly.

    So for example in short and mid term:
    Further devaluation of CNY can multiple price of bitcoin tenfolds easily.
    SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF can cause at least the same time.
    Hack of major non CNY exchange can acuse the price drop by 50% as we saw by Bitfinex.
    Hack of major CNY exchange can bring the price much further down.
    Harsh rejection of bitcoin transactions by some major state (EU, USA) can bring the price lower. Not as much as hack but with longer duration.
    Major error in Bitcoin code will cause the price 0. There are important updates ahead and this is always a possibility.

    One thing is certain. University of Princeton does not know anything valuable. If they knew, they would trade and not sit at the university producing useless papers. Unless they stole my crystal ball.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  9. #48
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    I am not planning on doing "forex" with BTC, I just want to learn about the currency and hopefully find a blue sea where I can profit by mixing BTC with some business opportunity

  10. #49
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    No, I am really not talking you have to do forex gambling. I am just saying that the spot price is always the best prediction from all bad predictions available. The currency market is where demand meets supply, so all information about future that is known, should priced in. In other words, all people that have strong opinion about Bitcoin affect the price.

    For example: I am not bitcoin day to day trader. I just hold bitcoins as part of my portfolio. But those bitcoins that I hodl are taken out of the market supply. Therefore my belief that bitcoin is both perspective and surging soon is a self fulfilling prophecy. The people who want to buy bitcoins, can not buy the bitcoins I have taken out of market and price is going up.

    On the other hand all people who do not trust and hold bitcoins (be it those who sold or those who never bought) affect the price towards bottom.

    Spot price at fx exchanges is in a way just the the tip of the iceberg. But it is the best estimaion. Right now it is 5015 CNY and 730 USD. Since you want to hear some prediction. I have just found my crystal ball, so I expect to cross 1000 during next 6 months and cross 1500 in 2017 with huge ups and downs. (I have masters in economy just in case it makes my crystal ball more trustworthy.)

    Even if this crystal ball prediction is bad, then as a bare minimum I also expect doubling the price of bitcoin each 4 years because of halving. So by the time I will be dying I will make it to Forbes for sure!
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  11. #50
    MMM
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    seems that BTC reacts the same way as gold to Trump election. Or is it something else that pushing it up today?
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  12. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMM View Post
    seems that BTC reacts the same way as gold to Trump election. Or is it something else that pushing it up today?
    Trump election is doing it to BTC as it doing effecting the stock exchange market and the top currencies for sure, stock exchange reacts emotionally to his election this morning

  13. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMM View Post
    seems that BTC reacts the same way as gold to Trump election. Or is it something else that pushing it up today?
    Nice find. Same as by Brexit.

    Yes, it seems btc now is taken as safe haven.

    Just to explain: it was not (and still it is not certain), whether bitcoin will react as market or if it will be like defensive stock or value. While by nature of bitcoin it seems to be clear, that the second option is certain, because bitcoin exists for the purpose of "becoming money and storage of value during hard times of all kinds", it is not. Because bitcoin has a lot of VC and the speculative VC is the most volatile asset, so many people think/thought that for example during economic disasters or during high interest rates, there would be a run away from bitcoin. In short that bitcoin is kind of a startup bubble.

    So this correlation, where bitcoin gets stronger, when economy is weaker (or market believe that economy is weaker), is very important for bitcoin investors. That is why I do not fear to hodl and why I even take btc as hedge to other assets.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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    I think that BTC will always be effected by the global economy and other currencies values even if it's purpose of existence is a safe alternative value shelter but in the same scale I agree

  16. #54
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    Yes, that is 100% certain. Bitcoin is a safe alternative, it is also an ultra defensive investment, but it is something connected to the economy.

    Like right now probably everything that is happening is bullish, because everything goes to ****. But maybe in far future is possible that if fiat money exist, then there will be some interest on fiat money. That would be a disadvantage for bitcoin. (But there is no rule that bitcoin can not be lent as well.)

    But if betcoin or some other currency will become a money, it will be influenced by economies. That is somewhat an attribut of money. It will just not be influenced by state, which can always create the price of money as it wants, because the state can always print or deprint money on request.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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    I'm sceptic about the fact bitcoin will become regular currency/money, it'll be a huge disadvantage for bitcoin if it happens... not sure if it's even possible...

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    Big jump from last month to this… I kind of expect it to go down a good bit after the Trump shock effect wears off… in fact I thought it would adjust already.

  20. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by ocreditor View Post
    I'm sceptic about the fact bitcoin will become regular currency/money, it'll be a huge disadvantage for bitcoin if it happens... not sure if it's even possible...
    It will not be a regular currency. No way. This is what is being changed now. But it may become money (= medium of exchange; a unit of account; a store of value; and, sometimes, a standard of deferred payment). It mean once we will be able to pay in btc directly at least for some things we need. Once we (or Gooner) will be uing bitcoin as savings. And the hardest thing: once we will mentally use Bitcoin as we use our native currency (that implies that price of btc will have to stabilize and it will not happen for long indeed).

    Bitcoin can be a reserve currency. The nature of Bitcoin will probably never allow onchain transactions for whole world. Right now it can handle 3 transactions per second. They are doing the upgrades (Segwit, Lightning, maybe bigger blocks in future), which should open further path (Lightning is so called sidechain), but even with those it may be not enough. But there is also no problem to have sidechain as normal fiat money as we know it now. Important here is the opportunity to be able to transact out of the sidechain. It is like it used to be a gold standard, where gold was a reserve currency. Almost nobody exchanged the physical gold, but the dollars were backed by gold. And who wanted was able to always exchange gold to USD and back with a small fee. Sidechains will work exactly like that. They will be more or less centralised than bitcoin, but much cheaper and will have higher capacity for transactions and it can be even money created by banks, as we know them now.

    But for now cryptocurrencies are still in a very early stage, so we do all transactions on chain. As time will go, those on chain transactions can be more and more rare and we can tell to our grandchildren: yeah, back in 2016 we did all transactions on chain, because there were no sidechains. -> jawdrop
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
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    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  22. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePoker View Post
    Big jump from last month to this… I kind of expect it to go down a good bit after the Trump shock effect wears off… in fact I thought it would adjust already.
    Market reaction to Trump is crazy. In the beginning everything as expected. Stocks fell, Bitcoin went up as safe haven. But then the world went full retard and Trump became a savior of US economy. I am still not getting how it came.

    Yet Bitcoin is bullish now whatever happens. So China fears a trade war. CNY is going down because of that. Bitcoin is very sensible and tanking (esp. in non USD). Right now there is a resistance between 5000-5200 CNY/BTC (720-760 USD). Once Bitcoin goes through this we can see much higher appreciation.

    There are much more good news for btc. One of them is Peter Thiel - a bitcoin investor - as part of Trump circle now. Nobody can expect governments to be btc friendly, but at least there will be no open hostility and bitcoin will be soon accepted as investment for funds (be it ETF or anything else). So another good news here: http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-...oon-1479143252
    World is full of uncertainities and potencial blac swans for bitcoin, like the cash reform in India etc.

    So the only sane advice now is: do not sell, HODL!
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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    Quote Originally Posted by ocreditor View Post
    What site ?
    It's a bot

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    There is a triangle button with "!" under each post for reporting those.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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