The outcome of halving is almost certainly spike of the price.
The problem is that the rise of the price can happen before halving, because people anticipate that the supply of bitcoins will be restricted, so they invest upfront. Or the rise can happen also after halving, because it takes a lot of time until the restricted supply has impact on real market.
I for example believe that current surge of btc and cryptos was also triggered by 2016 halving.
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The principle of halving and why it affects the price towards north is that halving (that occurs always when the blue curve above is broken) halves the bitcoins that are created. The very important point here is that the created bitcoins are mined by miners. And miners are guys that simply transform costs of electricity and hardware into bitcoins. They operate in very narrow margins. It means that they have to sell almost all the bitcoins, because they use fiat (USD, CNY) to buy electricity and hardware. So you can imagine what happens if you have so-so equilibrium, where the main supply of some goods is constant, like 25 BTC per 10 mins and then this supply is cut in half.
Imagine for example what would happen with price of oil, if oil production that is like 80M barrels per day is halved to 40M. The price would go through to roof. Oil and bitcoin are different things, but the principle how the restricted supply affects the price is the same.
Last edited by Sherlock; 23 June 2017 at 6:12 am.
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