Brexit vote causes chaos in the betting markets

[The Buzz]

Casino City speaks with two betting experts -- Paul Krishnamurty, a professional gambler and independent political analyst and William Hill Media Relations Director Graham Sharpe-- about the vast volume of wagers that were recorded on the Brexit vote last week and how it may affect future political betting markets.

Two of the more interesting points made:

1. According to Sharpe, the average bet for all sports at William Hill is typical around £10. On the Brexit referendum, the average bet for "Leave" was £77 and the average bet for "Remain" was £408.

2. According to Krishnamurty, there's a "strong chance" that financial traders were using the Brexit betting markets to hedge other positions.

For example, selling the pound vs. the dollar. These massive sums may explain the huge liquidity in markets, which overwhelmed the "wisdom of crowds" theory that usually determines the favorite.

Read the entire interview here: https://www.gpwa.org/article/brexit-...markets-218009

[Magic-Johnson]

I can say one thing: only England could leave Europe twice a week lol

[ocreditor]

I can say one thing: only England could leave Europe twice a week lol

lol

[BetterNick]

2. According to Krishnamurty, there's a "strong chance" that financial traders were using the Brexit betting markets to hedge other positions.

Can't believe bookmakers would have played ball at the type of sums required. Think there was about 80m traded on Betfair exchange but most of that would have been trading between positions.

[Sherlock]

I think it is possible. I think the price for stay was better at bookmakers than at financial markets, which apparently thought leave should be much higher favourite. This kind of situation is an arbitrage opportunity. I was thinking about that too, because I bet a lot on GBP (and therefore stay).

[justbookies]

Can't believe bookmakers would have played ball at the type of sums required. Think there was about 80m traded on Betfair exchange but most of that would have been trading between positions.

Agreed, this makes an assumption the bookies would take a proper bet, which they won't. Surprised Graham Sharpe's figure of £77 average bet for leave, because I wouldn't be able to get £77 on anything at William Hill. Though Betfair exchange does offer an opportunity for serious bets to be hedged. Remember with Betfair if it states 80m was traded then that is actually 40m because they double the turnover (counting it twice, once for the lay and once for back). I think Boris Johnson's mathematician must work there. If only I stuck to election betting I'd be rich.

[BetterNick]

BetDaq square their turnover don't they Turnover can be illusory on BF, would doubt there's was more that 5m 'risked' if a comparison is made of 40m with FO bookmakers.