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  1. #1
    TheGameHunter's Avatar
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    Default BREXIT - Who's wrong, Bookmakers or Polls?

    The odds on BREXIT or Leave are currently 3.2 (betfair), REMAIN is 1.44 (betfair). However, the latest polling suggests a small lead for Brexit. So who's getting it wrong? the bookies? or the pollsters?

  2. #2
    Triple7 is offline Private Member
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    Polls are another thing than bookmaker odds. I guess they know there are many people that change their mind at the moment they have to vote. I hope they will vote for a Brexit, but I doubt it.

  3. #3
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    There won't be any Brexit I think. EU will never let Britain go that's why I'll bet against Brexit.
    I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.

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    Syndicate is offline Public Member
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    I will be very disappointed with the UK electorate if they vote for Brexit. While it won't effect me living in Europe, i just think it's naive and wrong. Sure i don't like the lack of democracy nowadays, but the UK is no better than any other EU country in that respect. In fact, the UK is such a Nanny state, i certainly wouldn't want to live there!

    My political stance apart, i don't believe the UK will say yes to Brexit. However, if it does happen then it's because the exit voters will go to the polls, while ''stay'' voters might not turn out in the same numbers. From a betting stance i would like them to delay the vote for a month, because i've never had it so easy trading - but that's selfish i know!!

    What happens, happens - We will just have to learn to live with the decision!

  5. #5
    baldidiot is online now Private Member
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    Poll's are massively biased to people who answer polls, or even seek them out (I'd never respond to an online poll about this, for example).

    Whilst you have vocal advocates on both side of the fence, it's probably the quieter ones who are more likely to vote remain just to keep the status quo. Likewise people without strong opinions either way are more likely to vote remain (ie: if they don't care, then keep it the way it is).

    I would be very surprised if the vote came out as leave.
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  6. #6
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    I believe both are wrong, but bookies are closer. The polls are wrong like about Scotland I believe. And bookies were ok, but now they must move the line as people bet on leave, so the odds are not right (there should be more favorite on stay).

    I personally think the leave would be bad for economy at least in short and mid term. In long term it can be interesting, because London might try to maintain to be a financial hub and maybe something good for FinTech.

    But I am pretty sure that UK will stay, GBP is now underrated, so I in a way bet on stay and moved part of my assests into (underrated) GBP.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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    If you want to make some money bet on the UK to stay in by a clear 10% margin.

    Anyone with a modicum of common sense will be voting to stay. Saying that Syndicate you do annoy me enough to almost slightly tempt me to vote leave.

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    Syndicate is offline Public Member
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    - I'm sure you shouldn't let Syndicate annoy you into wanting to leave, but if you do and the vote is decided by one you would have paid me back !! --- or maybe it's a cunning trick to get you thinking that way!!

    In any case - a no vote wouldn't count against me personally -- All i need is my passport renewed every now and then and i'm good to go!!

    Anyway - you shouldn't let anyone who's opinionated annoy you!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Mattbar View Post
    If you want to make some money bet on the UK to stay in by a clear 10% margin.

    Anyone with a modicum of common sense will be voting to stay. Saying that Syndicate you do annoy me enough to almost slightly tempt me to vote leave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Syndicate View Post

    Anyway - you shouldn't let anyone who's opinionated annoy you!!
    lol, must be my Achilles heel, perhaps that's why I hate all politicians so much.

    Have you got a vote? I am only interested in the opinion of people who actually vote.

  11. #10
    Syndicate is offline Public Member
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    Yes i have a vote - Still pay taxes in UK and they still renew passports. In fact, only UK citizens not entitled to a vote are those that's out of the country for 15 years!

    I will be voting for sure!

    Not sure all politicians have an opinion - most seem to jump on a lobby bandwagon and then agree on everything that could swing it their way.

    Their is good and bad with the EU and im not happy with all the integration --- maybe we could have split like the Champions league and Europa league, but then we Brits have always been known for dividing the classes!

    Quote Originally Posted by Mattbar View Post
    lol, must be my Achilles heel, perhaps that's why I hate all politicians so much.

    Have you got a vote? I am only interested in the opinion of people who actually vote.
    Last edited by Syndicate; 8 June 2016 at 1:45 pm.

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    justbookies is offline Private Member
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    It is not cool to say you are for Brexit, just as it was not cool to say you voted Tory. That was the reason the polls and bookies got the general election very wrong, I layed 1/15 a hung parliament. So just like the Tories in the general election, it is possible Brexit wins quite comfortably.

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    Hey guys!
    I see that you are from UK - are you for Brexit or not? What do you think about this?

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    The latest polls have Brexit with a clear lead. I still think it will be close. However, a couple of things could derail the Brexit campaign - Merkel and Juncker could come up with a last minute compromise on EU reform or some 'special' arrangements to keep Britain in. It's also possible the UK vote 'Brexit' and it doesn't happen. 'Events, dear boy, events'.

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    I'm firmly in the remain camp personally, but up north the word seems to be for Brexit.

    Bookies had Brexit at 6/1 two or three weeks ago, its now 11/8....That's a huge swing and it worries me.

    Even if we come out we will end up with some kind of deal, we both rely on each other too much for us to just leave, leave. The problem is the EU will feel humiliated and look weak if our deal is better than others.

    Politicians are petty and love to point score for propaganda, be prepared for long drawn out negotiations whilst both economies grow weaker all the while.

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    Its worth mentioning that at least 40% of people are thought to be undecided.

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    justbookies is offline Private Member
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    The more the public get dire threats from Obama, Merkel, Cameron etc, the more they have railed against it and gone towards Brexit. I haven't spoken to anyone who is voting remain, and I am in the wealthy south east (it's a cliche that it is just poor northerners voting Brexit!). The Game Hunter is right though, even if it goes Brexit, I'll believe a complete pull out from the EU when I see it. Likely to get stitched up.
    PS: If England get kicked out of Euro 2016 for crowd trouble, Brexit will be a 95% landslide.

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    Yeah I wasn't insinuating it was just the North, I can't speak for the South but everyone but me seems to be leaning towards Brexit around here .

    Corruption is rife in the EU but its no different amongst our own elected leaders (and yes I know we elected them at least). I'm a gambling man but I wouldn't punt on what happens after leaving the EU being good, at least not in the near future.

    On the flip side, us leaving could be the catalyst that breaks the EU. There are many countries that want to leave but dont have the choice/power/money to do so, countries like Greece and Spain.

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    justbookies is offline Private Member
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    Agree with all that. Brussels is a corrupt cesspit, but then so are all the UK MPs and their fake expenses claims and other gravy trains. That's just people.
    Change creates opportunities. It wont stop trade. If I want to buy a german car I will and they'll sure as hell want to sell me one. The bit I dont get at all is this stuff about the EU stopping wars, it's bollox.

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    Quote Originally Posted by justbookies View Post
    The more the public get dire threats from Obama, Merkel, Cameron etc, the more they have railed against it and gone towards Brexit. I haven't spoken to anyone who is voting remain, and I am in the wealthy south east (it's a cliche that it is just poor northerners voting Brexit!). The Game Hunter is right though, even if it goes Brexit, I'll believe a complete pull out from the EU when I see it. Likely to get stitched up.
    PS: If England get kicked out of Euro 2016 for crowd trouble, Brexit will be a 95% landslide.
    Totally agree - The more REMAIN bleat about Brexit being end of the world, the higher up the polls LEAVE go! can't wait to see what the visit by Jean-claude juncker does https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

  22. #20
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    Brexit or no Brexit, bad stuff is a'coming

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