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  1. #41
    Sherlock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azureus View Post

    So one possible explanation that the exposure rate is much much higher in Italy than previously thought, maybe even 5 % or 10 % or 20 % of population got in touch with the virus. That is good news because it isn't as deadly as believed (of course you shouldn't be 60+ guy, smoker with diabetes, high blood pressure and BMI 30).

    Also it is somewhat bad news because you cannot stop the virus by insane restrictions, martial law and quarantine. The humanity may have to learn to live with the virus - just like it learned to live with measles or the common flu.
    It is absolutely possible that the virus can be in Italy from November, but then the virus can be in China easily from August for example.

    What you write would be not that bad news, but very good news, because then Italy would be just herd immunised.

    Based on the stats from China and Italy, 31% don't even experience any sympthoms (which is actually a problem as they can infect everyone without knowing).
    I do not know what stats you are talking about, probably stats of tested people. If 31% of tested people show no symptoms, then probably way over 90% maybe way over 95% people would not show symptoms. That would be good news as well under the condition that those people will not show symptoms in future.

    I have my own experience with some weird disease from SE Asia as I wrote here, and it seems coming and going, coming and going. Something is missing.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
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  2. #42
    Michael Martinez is online now Public Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMM View Post
    Nevertheless, the % of deaths between people below 50 is not high. Much higher than flue but not like the Spanish flue and far beyond some past epidemics. Based on the stats from China and Italy, 31% don't even experience any sypthoms (which is actually a problem as they can infect everyone without knowing).
    Again, you cannot rely on the aggregated data. The percentages only reflect a worldwide accounting based on reported cases - worse, the situation is changing everywhere. While it's easy to say that 4 out of 5 people don't develop serious enough infections to merit hospitalization, everything changes for the remaining 15%.

    Half the hospitalizations in California are now for patients under 50.

    https://www.chicoer.com/2020/03/25/c...tients-newsom/

    As those hospitalizations increase, if they run out of ventilators it won't matter how old the patients are. They are struggling to breathe. Hospitals don't put you on a ventilator as a preventive measure.

    Young people are every bit as much as at risk as older people.

    ADDED ON EDIT: Another new story that just came out.

    She was 21 and had no underlying health conditions. Dead from Covid-19.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...herts-52041709

  3. #43
    MMM
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Martinez View Post

    Young people are every bit as much as at risk as older people.

    ADDED ON EDIT: Another new story that just came out.

    She was 21 and had no underlying health conditions. Dead from Covid-19.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...herts-52041709
    First, no one argues that lack of machines will increase death rate.
    Just that argument you keep saying that "Young people are every bit as much as at risk as older people." is simply not true based on every piece of data world wide.

    Just the fact that it is a news story shows that it's an exception. Sad and unfortunate but still.

    Anyway, it seems we can leave it as doesn't seem you will be able to convince most of the people here and we won't be able to convince you.
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  4. #44
    Michael Martinez is online now Public Member
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    ADDED ON EDIT: I can see that my chronic LastWordItis has kicked into overdrive. I'm going to bow out of this discussion.

    Quote Originally Posted by MMM View Post
    First, no one argues that lack of machines will increase death rate.
    Just that argument you keep saying that "Young people are every bit as much as at risk as older people." is simply not true based on every piece of data world wide.
    Again, that data isn't telling you the story you think it is.

    Young people are being hospitalized. Young people are dying.

    They don't have any immunity to the disease and once they cannot get into a ventilator their chances of survival go way down.

    The doctors are now telling everyone that this disease is as bad for the young as it is for the elderly. Just accept that for what it is.

    The mortality rates have changed on a daily basis. I've been tracking them from the end of January. The risk of an 80-year-old dying from it is much less today in a health care system that can still absorb new patients than it was in December. We know about the disease now, we know what to look for, and hospitals are prepared.

    Aggregated mortality rates are biased toward the past, not the future. You can't use them to predict what will happen next for any age group.

    Look at the earlier comments in the discussion:

    "Many cases are like this...also there are Young people with the health of a 70 years old because of obesity, energy drinks bad habits etc."

    If you judge only by anecdotes like that (which obviously some people are), you could easily conclude young people don't have to worry as much.

    "
    Totally agree, all younger patients had underlying health conditions. "

    Again - completely wrong.

    "
    So kids, teens and twenty somethings seem to have very low risk of dying,"

    Kids, teens, and twenty something are now changing the data.

    "
    it's low for younger patients.. there have been a couple of cases in the same way you might find unknown nut allergy deaths,"

    Again, completely wrong. These are not nut allergy-style complications (and at least for nut allergies we have epi pens for intervention).

    BUT HERE ARE A FEW MORE "young people don't need to worry" myth-busting articles that came out in the last day:

    Coronavirus: Most COVID-19 patients in Pakistan are young adults as the total tally crosses 1100 cases
    https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/paki...ses-1.70635582

    Doctors Are Warning Of A Potential Connection Between Vaping And Coronavirus Complications
    https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020...-complications

    Coronavirus Does Not Spare the Young
    https://elemental.medium.com/coronav...g-b0244fba7761

    More young people being hospitalized for COVID-19
    https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavir...d-for-covid-19

    One chart shows New York City's coronavirus cases, deaths, and hospitalizations by age bracket as the city's cases top 20,000
    https://www.businessinsider.com/new-...e-chart-2020-3

    The largest group of hospitalizations is in 45-64. Second largest group is in 18-44. Death rates differ (lower across all groups) from the Vox article cited earlier but the data (from March 25) is already outdated. This is an example of how percentages change over time. New York was clearly better prepared to deal with the crisis than Wuhan was in December. Nonetheless the most heavily affected group is the younger population.

    The younger population is larger than the older population and that affects rates of transmission, reporting, and intensity.
    Last edited by Michael Martinez; 26 March 2020 at 5:48 pm.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Martinez View Post
    She was 21 and had no underlying health conditions. Dead from Covid-19.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...herts-52041709
    OK - one last time.

    She's 21 - it's clearly an exceptional case - and she's the YOUNGEST of 580 UK citizens who have died from CoVid-19 so far.
    You quoted it - and somehow you think this boosts your case that the risk of death is similar regardless of age?

    I'm out of this - I'll leave you in your confused state.

    It has been a fascinating insight into a psychosis, a text case confirmation bias where you ignore the overwhelming evidence and snatch half truths and partial sentences in order to promote an addled theory that no-one else sees.

    Thank you - I now have a much bigger insight into the "flat earth" movement, the "faked moon landing" fans, and the myriad of other clearly misguided groups that feverently believe despite clear and obvious evidence to the contrary.

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  7. #46
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    During last days I have much more encounters with tin foil hatters than normally and it is quite intense. The surge is the effect of corona. People are freaking out. Extreme fear next to extreme denial. Reptile reactions are not common just online but also in physical reality. And nothing serious happened (yet). Was Schwarzschild radius breached and will the world implode into mental singularity or not yet?
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
    each one latched on to the ass of the previous
    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

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  9. #47
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    I think the actual percentages will change as more data on the # of cases worldwide increases and more are tested with the results once determined, but this is a logical progression.

    I also think the mortality rate % will go down but that is also logical as more confirmed infection cases will exist over time.

    Yes, the numbers of young people being hospitalized and even dying will sadly likely climb, but as the grand total # of confirmed cases continue to climb and the virus spread is still climbing or peaking in some geo's this is a logical but sad statistic we will see increase.

    I do not think making direct connections between vaping, lung caner, bronchitis, asthma etc is logical in the sense that because you vape or whatever you will get the virus, but the way the media handles such connections, it often plays into their false narrative. Having a re-existing condition of lung damage based upon vaping,lung cancer etc etc etc raises the risk of more serious complications, most would likely agree, but give something like that to some at cnn or other media outlet and they run with more fear mongering.

    I do not see this as the infection that kills millions in a short amount of time, although I think it may have had the potential initially, and is an eye opener for the entire world on how to better handle the next similar crisis. (at least I hope I am correct on this)

    There will be long lasting changes because of this in the way many countries treat travel, immigration, trade and also manufacturing within their own borders, one can only hope that many of the changes will help make many more countries more prosperous for themselves.

    The biggest hope is that the spread of infection can be slowed to a more manageable level quickly in the countries that are still seeing the meteoric rise of serious cases.

    Rick
    Universal4

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  11. #48
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    This impact of infection already killed many millions in terms of money spent that will not be spent on future healthcare, prevention, nutrition, country defence (wars will be just fiercer after corona), environmental investments, less safe transport infrastructure, unemployment issues and so on. Already the costs are in trillions. Trillions lost = many millions of lives lost.
    We are all bloodsucking ticks, hungry, devious
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    when the last and the first latch on it can be shown
    ass-blood sucked by the first from the last is his own

  12. #49
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    People returning to Australia from OS are/were required to self isolate for 14 days. However, a % of these people didn't. As of 12am (Saturday) anyone returning from OS while be placed into forced isolation in city/suburban or country hotels, for 14 days. All expenses paid by the Federal Gov.

    AU Gov., is pulling all stops out to try to flatten the rising curve, while financially assisting those who have lost their jobs etc., etc., etc.

    ScoMo (Scott Morrison - prime minister) is certainly working for his AU$9.5K a week salary, as too are other politicians.

    Edit
    Interesting article this:
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...started-135242
    Last edited by AussieDave; 27 March 2020 at 1:13 am.
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    The severity of the effects on the economies is anyone's guess but it will be huge. Yes, businesses will bounce back and there will be backed up demand in some cases however those in hospitality and travel etc will never recoup their losses and will need to grow again. If this will be recurring/seasonal it will continue to be a huge cost and drain.

    We all live in a new world that has now forever changed.

  14. #51
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    Two years ago, we had a hurrican here in central Flroida. It was the first time I realised that my immediate community is only 5-6 days away from social breakdown. There was nothing here before the hurricane, no food, water, or gas. No means of leaving. We were without power for only 4 days, but people went nuts. Fights at stores and gas stations. That was only 5 days duration, but was the first time I've noticed how fragile our local community is. With this crisis, I am surprised to see more restraint. Since there is no end in sight, I am concerned about what's going to hapenn in the next few months (or year ish).

    The dead toll is bad, but for me, it's more about the perception and fear and how that perception influences behavior.

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