Does anyone make a living actively trading crypto?

[PaulEchere]

I know by my own experience and by example of people I am personally familiar with, that you can make some decent money if you buy in the right moment and then stay in for the mid-long to long term. But I've read and heard (obviously due to all the recent hype) an awful lot about buying / selling in the super short term (like within days or even several times a day) and how that is the way to go. I personally don't know anyone who makes money like that and I have quite a few people in my circle who are into crypto. Everyone who gave that a go eventually ended up losing money.
Since there are some crypto conversations sparking on GPWA here and there, I thought I'd ask to see if I might be really missing out on something.

[Sherlock]

crypto trading = gambling on steroids

All people who try to tell you otherwise are just sick gamblers, exactly like slot players that are trying to persuade you that you can make money off slots. Alterantively the people who are trying to persuade you that you can make money from "crytpo trading" are shills exactly like us, when we promote gambling.

There is really no mystery. It is all the time the same. Desperate billions of people who want to gamble, but they need to gamble with a vision that they can make money.

There are (many) ways how to make money with crypto, but this is exactly not the one. Money is made by hard work, nothing changes there. Money is not made by pressing random buttons and watching youtube videos.

Many people lost incredible money during last days after they made paper gains during last weeks. Very likely the maximum pain is ahead. We will read crazy stories about cryto-gamblers.

You do not miss anything. Gambling is exactly the same gambling as it always was. Just the gambling is expanding now into all economy. Forex is used for gambling. STocks are used for gambling. Binance is a gambling platform. Robinhood is a gambling platform.

It is probably a trend. The poor are gambling with money on leverage and staying poorer. The wealthy cash out.

PS. Do not ask me how I make money off crypto. It is a nonsense to answer. The niche where money is made is always a secret and very competitive (just like the real SEO for example I already have no clue about). It is also a good sign, when something is said in public, where there are tons of material to read about it with how-to and what-to-do, that this exactly does not work.

If you really want to make money with crypto, DYOR. Dive in with all you have. All you financial, political, economical, IT&cryptographical and sociological experience you gained so far. Try to make a theory based on that. Prepare for sleepless nights and that your wife will leave you. Just as by any normal intensive work. It is a win-win situation. Either you will be making money (again: really not by daytrading) or you will lose the money, but you will gain the experience that your models of world are wrong. So adjust what you think and who you are. Start over again.

[Azureus]

I know by my own experience and by example of people I am personally familiar with, that you can make some decent money if you buy in the right moment and then stay in for the mid-long to long term. But I've read and heard (obviously due to all the recent hype) an awful lot about buying / selling in the super short term (like within days or even several times a day) and how that is the way to go. I personally don't know anyone who makes money like that and I have quite a few people in my circle who are into crypto. Everyone who gave that a go eventually ended up losing money.
Since there are some crypto conversations sparking on GPWA here and there, I thought I'd ask to see if I might be really missing out on something.

Yes, there are people like that and if you look around you will find dozens if not hundreds - by that I mean I don't know them personally and they aren't "friends in my circle" (like you mention you have people who are "into crypto" whatever that means) but I'm aware of them and that's good enough I guess.

Out of people I know or met, it is e.g. one academician who doesn't daytrade but is great in spotting trends and who must love Musk now; another one is a british banker who worked 20+ years in London City, then retired and then discovered crypto derivatives; another one is a Russian guy who mastered in philosophy, then he tried to create strategies for bots trading altcoins, backtested them and they worked incredibly well.

All these people have one thing in common, they mostly have a low profile; if they share something online, they have an anonymous handle; they do not make Youtube videos with duck face thumbnails (this is reference to "mmcrypto" which is the exact opposite of this); they aren't selling anything. Actually if you wanted to google the last guy's name, it would look like he doesn't even exist.

Sherlock is probably another person and as close as you can get if you look for someone for "some decent money if you buy in the right moment and then stay in for the mid-long to long term".

The real question is your timeframe.

Afaik noone ever lost money if they simply bought Bitcoin and held for 3 years (or 4 years?). This is probably easiest for most people.

If you look into shorter timeframes, that's basically swing trading and can work pretty well if you find one edge or one setup, you master that, you specify your targets (and your stop-losses) and you maintain your money management. So it isn't about predicting the future or Musk's tweets. It's all about putting yourself into such setups that when you're right you make 5-10x and when you're wrong you lose 0.5-1% of your capital. This way, you can be wrong 50%+ of the time and still be profitable.

I want to stress that 2020 was probably an exceptional year and if you did this you would've done incredibly well even in equities (stocks). If some mutual fund tells you they had "a successful year of 2020 with 10% appreciation", you can tell them they are retards and they underperformed everyone imaginable including swing traders of memestocks who made 10x to 100x more than.

It's also important to do some retrospective and check whether your trading is better than a simple HODL. You can make a profit in USD but still have less BTC in the end and that's a fail.

If you look into very short timeframes, that's daytrading and I don't personally know anyone who is successful doing that. Doesn't mean such people don't exist, I'm just not aware of them and it is incredibly difficult for stocks (where regulation and fundamentals can help you), it is 10x more difficult for forex (most liquid and most "competitive" market in the world) and probably like 100x more difficult for crypto (fundamentals and regulations won't help you here).

________

Besides simply holding / buy&selling Bitcoin for a certain timeframe, there are other possibilities and it is so crazy I feel overwhelmed by just looking at it all. Originally I thought it is all bullshit, staking, yield farming, over-collateralized lending, decentralized liquidity providing, futures, options, sushiswap, pancakeswap, things with even weirder names. The truth is that it is not total bullshit and you can use it if you understand it well and if the counterparty doesn't rip you off.

For example three possible ways you can go:
1) trade with leverage - basically everything uses some sort of leverage in today's world. You take a mortgage and you are suddenly leveraged and new fiat money is created. Your stock broker offers you a margin account with 1.9% annual rate. Robinhood actually offers margin accounts by default without notice so that they can easily scam people by blocking them from trading GME when things don't go the way Robinhood expected... Bitmex or Binance offer 100x leverage and you can use it as you wish.

2) create some sort of a yielding trade - one example you can do in the real world is carry-trade, let's say Helmut is a banker in Deutsche Bank and he wants to generate some income for the bank, so he decides to short the EUR and go long TRY or Turkish government bonds. The inflation is high but yield even higher so the trade simply uses holes/gaps in the market, makes the market more efficient and should have relatively low risk. There is still some risk such as the European or Turkish central bank doing something unexpected, or perhaps Turkish president firing the fourth central bank governor in 3 years.

Another example is cash-and-carry trade (different from carry trade), this means using the difference between price of something and price of a derivative. For example in March 2020 oil price was minus $40 or whatever, so you buy 2 million barrels of oil, rent a crude oil tanker, store the oil until December and sell 9-month futures. You get a 30-80% p.a. profit if the contango is really huge and your risk is protecting the oil tanker from pirates I guess.

The nice thing is you can do the exact same thing in crypto and you don't need to rent a tanker and mercenaries protecting your tanker. In 2020 you could simply buy the underlying and short the futures and get insane returns, 50% or even 200% per year - which seems less than Bitcoin appreciation but the important thing is this was risk free yield in dollars no matter what the BTC price in the future would be. Example of this is e.g. here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvv0mASkg3U

If you would tell this to some traditional banker, he'd think you are crazy. Of course the banker cannot just call his friend Helmut at DeutscheBank to get a billion worth of crypto futures. He'd need to register on an unregulated exchange based in the Caymans, get some Bitcoin, send it to them, then set the trade up, then withdraw your crypto and maintain your keys.

3) harvest crypto volatility - this is easy to understand, crypto is insanely volatile and noone has any idea what will happen tomorrow but people still want to gamble so you can provide them the possibility to speculate. Probably the best business model is to create the next Bitmex. If you can't do that, you can also do some option strategies (straddles, strangles, short puts or short put spreads), all these have some risk involved so if you are on the seller side it can end up you will be picking up pennies in front of a steamroller - i.e. you make good consistent profits for months and then one event will destroy you. So you must manage your risk. Example of this is https://satoshiheist.com/guides-blog/ (or basically the entire /r/thetagang subreddit whose motto is "We are selling options to WSB degenerates using thetagang strategies!")

________

Your possibilities are unlimited, it simply depends on if you know what you are doing. This is a nice list to get some insight from smart people: https://twitter.com/quantian1/status...75115668529158 (e.g. the guy from the linked video is in the 1st list, Elon Musk is in the 3rd list).

Just to put things into perspective. On Wednesday there was a huge crash in everything crypto. I don't know what caused it and what will happen now. There are some speculations that it was coordinated to liquidate Justin Sun, funny thing about it is someone predicted the timing and depth of the crash perfectly on 4chan one day in advance.

Probably doesn't matter that much. The real difference is that 770000 accounts were liquidated (retail traders like you), meanwhile at the same time the British banker (whom I mentioned in the first paragraph) managed to double his Bitcoins on Wednesday with very little risk - he still has less money in USD terms than a week ago but double the amount of Bitcoins he had just a day before, he simply harvested the volatility as I explained.

[Sherlock]

Usually people say nothing and it is annoying. Than, once in a time, some people say too much and it is even more annoying. (It is like the crypto-cycles, when 3 years everyone is depressed and with hopium and it is annoying to read the smartass bears; then few months crypto explodes and it is even more annoying to read posts of all the moonboyz + see people trading something based on nothing).

I will not say more to the topic, because everything you described, is very likely true (I do not have that wide approach and I see only something at very specific niche). I also know that the results do count in the long timeframes = after 5 years; there are way too many black swans around.

But about the recent crash and the cause. I ofc do not know what caused it because it is always infinite factors, most of them derived from BTC halving that is always the elephant in the room. But during the last hours before the crash it was really obvious that it must happen, hence I am not surprised that someone posted it on 4 chan. I posted it to the closed section of my forum as well. And I wrote it here. If ETH fees for trade go north of 1000 shortly after they were 100 and 300, the end is simply near. The prices this time did not went fully parabolic, but the fees (derivation of prices?) went. If the market did not crash, next day the ETH fees would be 5K and the another day 5 figures per trade. And those money can afford nearly nobody; + this shitcoin rally is run by retail buying something like SHIBA, where important part is US retail - but when you lose the inflow, because retail can not pay even hundreds / tx (in fact even tens and even few dollars per transaction for people who buy for 200 USD and spread the nonsense on social networks is too much), you are done for.

So in short the rally could have lasted longer, if for example MATIC had come sooner. On the other hand this shitcoin rally was possible only because of BSC network working along of obsolete ETH. Now it is obvious defi will be part of crypto, just is not sure which platform; probably they all will be connected together and then the cheapest and most reliable (not necessarily the most decentralised) will win the network effect.

Either way this is diverting from the OP question.

Last remark is: as anyone can be a billionaire from zero with hard work; not everyone can be a billionaire. Analogy: anyone can make high tens of percent with at least some things you described at crypto in 2020/2021 with a billion invested; but not everyone can do it. The market is very small. There is shining 1.5T marketcap at everyone, but those are numbers from azz. The cryptomarket can not allocate even tens of B. Uniswap liquidity peaked at 10B, now is 6B. Partially because prices vaporised, partially because the liquidity moved to uniswap forks. I am far not playing with 1B, I am BTC hodler and I always will be, because I love that stubborn philosophy and as someone said - holding BTC is like being exactly at the Nash equillibrium. Just hodling with discovering other routes is really the work itself.

[PROFRBcom]

Everyone is a successful trader when the markets are going up.

The problem is when they go down, or sideways.

Trade accordingly! (or don't if you're smart)

[Strider1973]

I posted it to the closed section of my forum as well.

Do you mind sharing the name of your forum?

This is a super interesing thread and I believe that smart people with access to a little bit of capital can really profit from these markets.

As PROFRBcom said, everyone is successful when markets go up.

You must try to find ways to make money in all market cycles, and in my opinion that's certainly not daytrading.

But the crypto markets are not efficient. So with the right tools, you can make profits. It's a big advantage if you know how program a bot as the ones you can rent or are publicly available are very limited.

[Sherlock]

The forum is not English.

And if I wanted to give all info my brain gains in return for years of my life that I still spend by the stupid screen, I could have posted it here. I do not want.

I wrote the reasons above. I will try that once again. In human life everything is a fascistic competition. Your investment strategies compete with others. Your SEO compete with others. We all compate for food, good sex, progenies and peaceful death.

In the cypherpunk manifesto is written nothing about bitcoin and big gains. There is written how anyone can choose the level of himself that he wants to reveal and crypto is a tool for that. I like that. Crypto is simply another tool in this war where we try to kill each other, while we pretend we love each other.

I have no reason to reveal anything to anyone, when I do not know that person and I do not know goals of that person. I have "my own" goals in my life and I decided long tome ago to share the real things only with people who share my goals. My forum - for example - is a place where I cancel the people I can not stand. The rest - I am not sure. Very likely I will ban most of them as well, but I am trying to offer them some genuine advices. I do not care to be praised, but I care very much that the people will change their attitude to my attitude. Because we are all just slaves of our selfish genes and memes; my genes want to survive. And the society is breaking up. Wars are behind corner. Nations will perish and no one will even remember them. It will be suddenly so obvious like today is obvious that crypto is something else than moonboys hoped for just few days ago. I just want to survive and I need people for that as much as other people need me.

There are closer circles like my employees or my bankers where I can go deeper, because those people really help me a lot and I see a perspective in them.

It is nothing new after all. From the beginning people 1st helped themselves. Then their families. then their neighbors and sometimes to a country. Other countries were enemies. Nothing changed, just the borders now are more symbolic.

There is nothing like a crypto community. There is nothing like a free advice. The crypto-advisers are either manipulative idiots like McAffee or just random copywriters, who have no insight, but understand that with their echo chamber posts, tweets and videos they get traffic for free. Or they are both.

In extreme I am ready to die for other people, but I want that surviving person to do what I do, but better. Then I have no problem. I absolutely have no will to help people in the 1st world to keep their spending standards and live their "normal" peaceful lives, because they can get a bit richer with crypto, so they can "fulfill their dreams". For me this life is disgusting, I left that life, where someone has some dreams and checkmarks and his wellbeing is measured by how much he achieved. I found something much better (which is probably silly for others) and from that something much better comes even "my insight", that is in the end even not mine.

I do not know what happened with people. We all demand info/help for free. It is perverted. First is that person who wants something offers something. What you offer to me? I recently came to an unknown country. I need help here. Am I sitting on street and ask for help? No. I met some random people and as someone who need something I offer them my help in anything I can do better than they do. And guess - this works!

It is really very easy. When you go to nature, when you see a river, for example a confluence like this, you simply see that nothing changes. Everything is repeating, never exactly the same, but in a way it is the same. This wisdom after all is for everyone. Everyone who can move his ass. No need to follow me exactly, if you are the 1st world individual pussy that needs to believe in his own subjectivity.

If you want to know what to do with crypto or anything else go out. Going deeper into internet, into better social networks and such bullshit will bring just more confusion. The information is out, not in. If you do not see in whirlpools of river, that you are not persistent enough. I am not joking here, I am not making some hyperboles, I mean this dead seriously.

I was about to post here a great video of confluence of two rivers with distinct colors + waterfall, but thank god the upload does not work. That video would reveal way too much anyways. It is just for those who get out. The rest will be in shitcoin hell where billions of more and more confused lost souls scream one over each other.

You must try to find ways to make money in all market cycles, and in my opinion that's certainly not daytrading.


But the crypto markets are not efficient. So with the right tools, you can make profits. It's a big advantage if you know how program a bot as the ones you can rent or are publicly available are very limited.

The hodl is a perfect strategy. Always was and still is. Probably until the majority of people with majority of money understand that hodl is the best strategy in total turbulence. Once hodl will be the strategy that your bank and pension fund will promote and enforce, then some other strategy will make sense.

Work and hodl and buy more. If it is too boring, then the problem is not cryptomarket but your own life. Then you can simply just hodl and do something with the life itself (this is a general advice not speaking to you personally bc after all I do not know you). What I want to say that even crypto itself is like a screen of human soul (after all it is not just crypto).

Like really what is the problem here? BTC went up 4x in less than a year. 400%. It went up 300x since bovada started to pay us. For some reason this is not enough for people. What all the people want when this is not enough? Clearly people have no faith in anything, even in the obvious and they want to make it up with some trading bot magic. I see people like totally spoiled brats who have no limits in their ignorance.

The debate about trading was here few years ago and it will be here after few years again. And the reasons will be the same: people want to be rich, but they do not want to sacrifice anything for that. The hodling sacrifice is the best. Where is the trading by hodling? Well, I should stop right now.

Just buy and hodl. Btw. in this range it is good again to rebuy. I really can not see BTC to dive a lot under the 30K. Even if it goes close to 20K there is the only way up from there. Maybe after years, but whatever. It is the easiest bet ever. But anyways the point here is why people do not see even such obvious calls. Are people really that dumb? If yes, well, I should really not post anymore.

[spartikkhlink]

Cryptocurrency is the same gambling. This is a big financial pyramid and at some point it will collapse. A lot of money will be made on it, but not all ...

[Scorebetting]

You can make a living from trading but it's hard and like most things you'd need to be the top 1%, but i do know people who do. They are incredibly, hard working and disciplined.

[Sherlock]

It hurts to read 1000x recyclated bullshit from random people of the internet. From both of you.

The "pyramid" and the "1%" are memes. You are adding literally nothing just a white noise for the sake of saying something.

[Pokerface]

Not sure if anyone is making a living trading crypto this month, certainly not me.

[astra]

Looks like almost everybody is into crypto nowadays but when the interest cools, what will happen?

"if you buy in the right moment" - please define "the right moment", is it now, yesterday, 5 years ago?