German player value

[Toni]

For me the most interesting programs are the programs who don't shave highrollers because the highrollers are the players who earn you the money. In the past I had one highroller loosing more than 200k in 2 years and several loosing more than 50k and I got the refshare. I had about one highroller in 50-100 fdp.

Since the last 12 month I got 0 highroller out of 300/400 fdp. Maybe just no luck.

But I prefer trustful programs with a bad conversion rate but a trustfull payout on highrollers.

I mean you can't buy anything out of a fdp spending 20$ and after fees you get maybe 1 $ commission.

[Sherlock]

Do not worry much. In Europe soon all highrollers will sue casinos, so casinos will not accept them...
Stable (= not expecting changes soon and without history of rip offs) and not shaving apart of North america (Bovada, 5dimes, SIA) is probably just bet365 and 1xbet. Unibet for example is still very good with me, but after they did the retroactive changes, it is hard to recommend them. And they convert quite badly in Germany to stay on topic (but I think they have some problem with German tracker).

[Strider1973]

I am using (expected future income + past income) / players for value.
For example at bet365 my account is closed, past income is known. Future income I take as infinite row where ( because they have a great retention rates, but people stop playing after all and they are losing players) the income in Y+1 = Y*0.8. So expected future income is something like Y2018*0.8 + Y2018*0.8^2 + Y2018*0.8^3 .... (The factor definitely used to be 0.9 before, but everything is now shaking)

That's interesting. I've never thought about a formula to calculate future value. I guess I prefer to stay on the safe side and not to expect too much from the future.
Looking at you factor of 0.8, I think that value would be pretty high for most programs. This would give a value of 3.57x for the next 10 years, so an affiliate account generating 1000$ per year it would be worth 3570$.

[Toni]

This would give a value of 3.57x for the next 10 years, so an affiliate account generating 1000$ per year it would be worth 3570$.

That's a realistic number but chances are high that programs will close or change terms within the next 10 years.

[Sherlock]

That's interesting. I've never thought about a formula to calculate future value. I guess I prefer to stay on the safe side and not to expect too much from the future.
Looking at you factor of 0.8, I think that value would be pretty high for most programs. This would give a value of 3.57x for the next 10 years, so an affiliate account generating 1000$ per year it would be worth 3570$.

That is an exception. Because it is bet365.

Not discounting future value or not even considering future value is both big mistakes. How would you compare affiliate programs otherwise? Comparing revenue shares (even real ones) is not enough. Take an extreme 10bet.

On the other side 5dimes/Intertops are perfect example what Toni wants. Low revenue share. Low conversions. But you can count with them (sadly the death of 5dimes owner lowered the factor).

Funny thing is that with Bovada I expect from them much more than they expect from themselves. They count with their own longevity of only 18 months.

[gm2891]

Thank's for info! How do you guys test affiliate programs if they do or no shave their partners?

I know some people were registering through their friend's affiliate links and depositing large amounts into casinos.

This method used to give an opportunity to see if there is a new registration and everything goes as it should.

[mgaming]

Despite discussion regarding german player value - which sports & casino operators would you recommend in 2019 for websites, that target DACH traffic?

[Sherlock]

bet365 if you can promote them, nobody else is close