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  1. #1
    TravG's Avatar
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    Default How is No Negative Carryover Possible?

    So we all know many online casinos entice affiliates with the promise of no negative carry over on player winnings. How is that really possible though? In the long run you would think the casino would go out of business. Granted, players lose, and lose on a regular basis so in theory there should not be a lot of negative carryover to begin with.

    But if even a few players would hit it big especially at the end of the month, your affiliate account could be negative $200,000. Then the next month the players lose it all back and all of the sudden you are earning $100,000 in revenue. How can the casinos afford that?

    I find myself in that very situation this month, and something tells me that by the end of the month, for one reason or another, I am not going to see that money! At the end of June someone won a lot, like $100,000+ so it wiped out the little bit of earnings I did have and I wont get a payment this month. But whoever won that money lost it back and since it crossed over to the next month all of the sudden I am looking at a very nice payment for this month (if I actually get it).

    In essence I did not earn that money. The casino lost it, but because it was at the end of the month and there is no negative carryover, and the player now lost back what they won I am looking awesome. But really, how can a casino afford to do that every moth. I am just one affiliate of many and I am sure it happens all of time.

    Thoughts?
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    Hmm, good thread, I was alway curious about this thing too. When speaking about such huge winnings as you did, it can be a disaster for some smaller casinos when it keeps happening repeately. But there are many programs looking for affs nowadays and the negative carryover is one of the most important things, when aff decides which program to join. I think it is a risk for casino, but they are able to take it to grow the player database and in general they are in plus numbers. No need to say, that where player wins he will come back
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    High rollers clauses do exist and will be applied in some cases. Competition is heavy now, markets are still young and sometimes not even regulated. Many brands are buying now players with a loss.

    I think in 5 - 7 years almost every deal will be around 25 - 30%, with negative carry over and with activity quota.

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    As Triple7 said some affiliate programs have a high roller policy, that will ring fence that player until they lose what they won. I see this as a good thing as it won't wipe your commission on other players , and the casino doesn't have to pay on something that wasn't really lost (in case of winnings rolling to the next month and being lost).

    It's rare that someone will win 200k every month. But with just 'normal' players and game play the affiliate program will usually be in profit depsite the losses and no negative carry. For every high roller there is 1000 'small' players losing small amounts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElaineGardiner View Post
    As Triple7 said some affiliate programs have a high roller policy, that will ring fence that player until they lose what they won. I see this as a good thing as it won't wipe your commission on other players , and the casino doesn't have to pay on something that wasn't really lost (in case of winnings rolling to the next month and being lost).
    Sure, that totally makes sense If not now, in the near future all programs will have something like that.
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    Best way for Casinos to Offset Negative Carry Over is to have a High Roller Policy for sure but some dont and just will pay the affiliate accordingly the whole idea is that its a swings and roundabouts game and the hope is the affiliate will continue to send players and over time no matter how long that be the casino will make make some of that from the affiliates players .. the other hope is that you pay the player the Large sums and he then comes back and plays some of it back to the casino .. we have no negative carry over policy in place as you say to entice affiliates some months we get burnt but over time we recover ..I hope the program your referring to pays you as you've 100% said the right things in your post .. its the same as a Player winning Large the casino has to pay the player in the hope he or she will come back and play it back if they dont well that's gambling

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    We had our accountants run stats and the short answer is (for us) its not possible to guarantee profit with "No Negative Carry Over". Some months you are going to lose your a** as a program if everything is done by the book and you are wiping off thousands and thousands in negatives each month as well as giving away say 40% for the initial deal.

    An account with negative carry over is the most fair way to split commissions. When i first learned of No Negative Carry Over being a thing, I couldn't wrap my head around how programs made profit and to be honest I still dont.

    We find the best way to run things is offering a fair split (with negative carry over) and if an affiliate runs in to problems with winners we can help out. At least then everything is visible and transparent which instils trust.

    Our business plan has seen us last over a decade and still going strong, whereas you see programs offering 50% and no negative carry over either going rogue, or flat out going broke and disappearing with years of your hard work.

    Just my two cents worth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    When i first learned of No Negative Carry Over being a thing, I couldn't wrap my head around how programs made profit and to be honest I still dont.
    As Myron said, you just have to hope it works out for you.

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    I think in the example above, most affiliates would see it as fair enough if the aff program turned around and said we have a high roller policy, as long as it was already in the T & Cs. Good luck to you though TravG

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    Smile Food for thought

    1. Player wins $100,000 and cashed out. Casino issues cheque for $100,000 to player.
    2. Player wins $100,000 and plays it all back the following month. Casino issues cheque for $40,000 to affiliate.


    I'm sure the casino would be happier with scenario 2.

    Yes, I know they'd prefer it if the player played it all back the same month.

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    I think no negative carryover is not in the best interest of the program and all things being equal probably is not fair to the program. However if a program is going to offer it they need to honor it.

    Stephen from AE makes good points, in all honesty I am more comfortable with a program that does not have a no negative carryover policy just because of what he said. A program that does is probably at some point going to do something shady and in the long run, as an affiliate you may end up losing out. Rephrased, a program that has a no negative carryover policy that does NOT have a high roller policy, may find themselves in trouble at some point and do something unsavory for all involved.

    Personally I think ring fencing is the answer. While the casino is still holding more of the debt and losses, they are bigger than affiliates and should be able to carry the load. I use to promote 5Dimes a lot and really liked 5Dimes because I truly felt they were a good program, offered a good product and were very stable financially.

    Unfortunately I had someone there win $90,000+ and they wont ring fence the player so I am not going to get paid for a long time. As a result they are no longer in my top 3 casinos/sportsbooks because at the end of the day I am here to make a living, and not being paid is not an option. I do not feel like there is any reason they cannot ring fence that player to help me out. Sadly I think they showed their true colors towards affiliates and players are the ones who lose out in the end because I am not recommending one of the best sportsbooks and casinos in my mind. They pay faster than almost any other book/casino but I cant afford to wait months to get paid and send new players there hoping to work that balance off. If I did do this for fun they would still be listed but unfortunately because of this it puts me in a situation where I am not holding true to my mission, but again I have to eat too!
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    Our business plan has seen us last over a decade and still going strong, whereas you see programs offering 50% and no negative carry over either going rogue, or flat out going broke and disappearing with years of your hard work.
    I beg to differ, there are plenty of programs offering no negative and been doing so for a long time. There are plenty of examples of programs with negative carryover that have disappeared, so not really a factor.

    There should be NO WAY a player can join your casino, play $5 slots and rack up $100,000 in winnings...just no way!
    A player that wins $100K is a player that bets $50+ per spin. That player will eventually cover the (tiny) risk of paying an affiliate the no-negative commission, and then some.

    Sure, once in a blue moon you may get a player that wins $100K, loses the next month and never comes back, and you have to pay the affiliate $40K. How often would this happen??? Once a year, tops, for all the stars to align in such way. If $40K would run your casino into the ground, then....

    To answer the OP's question - by running a decent casino and by taking a small risk with a case like yours. There are programs that offers no negative carry and I have worked with them for many years - not once have I had a negative month. But it's good to know that if need be - I won't have to be without pay for months.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AE-Stephen View Post
    When i first learned of No Negative Carry Over being a thing, I couldn't wrap my head around how programs made profit and to be honest I still dont.
    This really depends on what percentage of your players come through the affiliate program. If it is a larger percentage than any other means of acquisition, then yeah it's probably not going to work out in the end. But if the affiliate program's acquisition percentage isn't as high as others in the company, the other players that are not being paid to affiliates will even those out.

    To be honest, I can count the number of times this has happened on one hand. I think we have only ever had to enforce our high roller policy once.
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    Most affiliates want a no Negative Carry Over policy or prefer if a program has one isn't it ?

    I will agree to disagree with Both Martyn and Stephen ( Thanks for the sly dig lol) but I have worked for Monster MGS Program that's been going fro over a decade too now and they seem to have managed fine having a No negative carry over policy inmplace.

    It doesn't make you any less Stable as an operation if the operation is manged properly .. I saw your post under the Ace Revenue Tab too from my understanding they are the Biggest RTG Affiliate program out there so i think you'll be fine and they seem to be doing fine too so some can manage by having this in place just Fine ..Am I wrong in saying the majority of affiliates want to work with casinos with No Negative or is this just an assumption?

    Renee Makes a good point too about how much of your players come via the affiliate channel if this isn't a large % then your program can still thrive with no issues whatsoever but if your getting 70% of your traffic from affiliates different story maybe


    Quote Originally Posted by TravG View Post
    I think no negative carryover is not in the best interest of the program and all things being equal probably is not fair to the program. However if a program is going to offer it they need to honor it.

    Stephen from AE makes good points, in all honesty I am more comfortable with a program that does not have a no negative carryover policy just because of what he said. A program that does is probably at some point going to do something shady and in the long run, as an affiliate you may end up losing out. Rephrased, a program that has a no negative carryover policy that does NOT have a high roller policy, may find themselves in trouble at some point and do something unsavory for all involved.

    Personally I think ring fencing is the answer. While the casino is still holding more of the debt and losses, they are bigger than affiliates and should be able to carry the load. I use to promote 5Dimes a lot and really liked 5Dimes because I truly felt they were a good program, offered a good product and were very stable financially.

    Unfortunately I had someone there win $90,000+ and they wont ring fence the player so I am not going to get paid for a long time. As a result they are no longer in my top 3 casinos/sportsbooks because at the end of the day I am here to make a living, and not being paid is not an option. I do not feel like there is any reason they cannot ring fence that player to help me out. Sadly I think they showed their true colors towards affiliates and players are the ones who lose out in the end because I am not recommending one of the best sportsbooks and casinos in my mind. They pay faster than almost any other book/casino but I cant afford to wait months to get paid and send new players there hoping to work that balance off. If I did do this for fun they would still be listed but unfortunately because of this it puts me in a situation where I am not holding true to my mission, but again I have to eat too!
    Last edited by Miles_FTA; 11 July 2016 at 1:27 am.

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    @ Stephen & @ TravG

    'We had our accountants run stats and the short answer is (for us) its not possible to guarantee profit with "No Negative Carry Over". Some months you are going to lose your a** as a program if everything is done by the book and you are wiping off thousands and thousands in negatives each month as well as giving away say 40% for the initial deal.

    An account with negative carry over is the most fair way to split commissions. When i first learned of No Negative Carry Over being a thing, I couldn't wrap my head around how programs made profit and to be honest I still dont.

    We find the best way to run things is offering a fair split (with negative carry over) and if an affiliate runs in to problems with winners we can help out. At least then everything is visible and transparent which instils trust.

    Our business plan has seen us last over a decade and still going strong, whereas you see programs offering 50% and no negative carry over either going rogue, or flat out going broke and disappearing with years of your hard work.

    Just my two cents worth"

    All I am saying is It cant be a bad Term to have if its manged correctly and your program is managed correctly .. These guys have been doing it for 20 Years and they still very Stable and going Strong ( They can thank me for the punt at a later stage) but I just want affiliates to be aware that by having a NO Negative Carry over policy in place in No way makes you any less stable or trustworthy or viable as an operation.

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    Its clear by there Terms

    "11. Intertops will pay referral commissions monthly by credit to your Intertops account of any commission earned by you in the month. If the account is in a negative position (e.g. because customer winnings have exceeded customer losses) this negative position will NOT be carried over until the following month. "

    Im sure they ran the numbers too ..

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    Apologies if my post came across as "All programs with no neg carry over are rogue and will go under one day". That's certainly not what I meant, or how I wanted it to come across.

    I know there are good programs out there that manage to make no negative carry over work for them. Personally I have no idea how because I have never worked at a firm that has no negative carry over.

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    @ AE- Stephen Thanks Appreciate that your a Good Man ..

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    As I`m sure we all know, rollover is key. For the operator it doesn`t really matter if your players win or not. Casinos / bookies will make the money from the juice and I guess it`s affordable for them to offer the commission with no negative carryover, otherwise they would not do it (rogue programs can generally be spotted easily). For some it`s not worth it, like Stephen said and others just prefer to maximize their profits. Overall, law of averages generally applies.

    Of course it all depends on % of affiliate clients the operator gets and things like that. But there are plenty of well known, trusted 'no negative carryover' programs out there and I had excellent experiences with plenty of them. I actually rarely make money with programs that have negative carryover, for some reasons I seem to be atracting smart bettors.
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