Is the magic 8 ball the best at predicitions?

[universal4]

Trivia
Why didn't the 3 Stooges get credit for inventing the "Magic 8 Ball"?

Based on a post I read a bit ago when someone asked about a certain prediction, it made me think of how often Anthony and I talk about trends and what we think the market will bring and we often joke about which one of us have the best crystal ball.

Even though most often mine wins, nothing compares to the accuracy of the magic 8 ball. LOL

The earliest I know of it being spoken about or likeness shown was in a 3 stooges short in 1940.


It first appears about 9 minutes in.

Oddly enough though, it was actually created and sold first 5 or 6 years later. The patent application date is 1944. (How is that for the stooges team predicting a toy that would not be created for years) ha

Of course it was either so famous for hours of enjoyment or many have created a fortune based on the answers it provides, (you decide) but it does have it's own wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_8-Ball

Throughout the years it has been seen on television shows and in movies many times. I know it was featured in one of the Dick Van **** episodes as well as making an appearance in Toy Story and likely many many more shows and movies.

Ok so now a few of you are saying this post was lame, however, my guess is almost everyone who read it laughed at least once and that is what this thread is for LOL.

So, next time you are wanting to know how the economy will be, whether bitcoin will rise next week, just ask the best expert prediction device ever created with more then 80 years of experience.

The Magic 8 Ball

Rick
Universal4

[Sherlock]

Things can be predicted with some degree. Not the exact price of Bitcoin or such nonsense. Ironically for this posthalving cycle I predicted top at 70K and bottom at 30K, which nearly exactly hit, even when the top came after bottom.

But yes, things can be predicted, or they seem to be predictions to some, while for some other it is just a calculation with some degree of variability.

I can see I know how to predict some macroeconomical trends and I know how to use it.
I know I can not predict outcome of my SEO, even when into some degree, I can do it (but I think there are real experts, who can predict very well, how my SEO would impact the outcome of SERP; so for them it is a rational calculation, for me magic 8 ball).
I also know that if I get cancer, I can not predict my suvival rate and I can not even cure my cancer medically. But there are experts, who can do such estimations and their estimations will be more accurate than something random.

I want to say that from different angles, the same situation can look differently.

If everything was just random, the world would not exist. If people existed somehow, they would be all equal. But they are not equal. Someone is more rich and someone is poor. Even when they have the same starting point (if that thing is possible). The wealth change is a function of the brain and how good the brain is at estimating the things.

It is the thing like in sportsbetting or poker. Majority of people are losing. They do random bets based on emotions. Everything is for them the magic 8 ball. And then there are people who simply look for some information. The information does not have to be a certainty. Those people understand that the world is stochastic. But there are odds in poker you can count. There are behavior patterns that can be analysed. There are sport odds patterns that can be analysed as well. Based on those data can be made qualified decisions. For majority of outsiders, this seems like magic 8 ball. For the minority of people this make them rich.

Same thing can be applied to all corners of human life. For health for example. For driving. For relationships.

Then they say: oh, you have good genes, so you are healthy or slim or whatever.
Or I was unlucky to meet a dangerous driver and therefore I am in hospital.
Or your wife is fantastic, while mine is horrible etc.

Telling that life can not be predicted is the same like telling that it can not be affected.
It is good for me if other people think it, because the more they give up on their life, the more space and resources are here for me. It is like playing the poker against the players that do random bets, because they do not believe that non-random bets can even exist (or they want to believe in that).

But still, this thinking is simply not correct.

The fact that the world is too complex and that we did not develop the skill to understand it (yet), does not mean that it is generally impossible. Whole human effort as a whole is a way towards better understanding the things.

Thousands years ago the eclipse of sun was a random event. Then the pattern was found and now it is the opposite of randomness.

[chaumi]

I've missed these.


Fill your boots anyone that didn't know what 'stochastic' meant precisely (no, I didn't either)............https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic

[Sherlock]

Yes, you nailed it.
Understanding what the stochastic means or represents is very important I think.
It shows the random oscillation around something. But it is not a randomness itself.

I actually have maybe the best example why is not that good to think that everything is random. Yday I had quite tense debate with one guy here in mountains.

We have to go rafting and to glaciar next weekend. But the weather reports show raining and bad weather from Friday to Sunday. I mentioned that to him. After a totally useless debate whether the weather report really shows raining or not that guy in the end said: "You know, in mountains the weather is unpredictable". (He is living here for 13 years, so he likes to tell me that I am just an idiot, who does not know how fast the weather can change in mountains.)

Well, he is right. The weather is unpredictable. It can snow in the summer. It can be temperature inversion in the winter, so one can walk in t-shirt up in mountains while down there they are freezing etc.

But does it mean that the weather report is completely useless? No, it does not. I do not know how high accuracy is for next weekend. Maybe 50%? Still even 50% helps a lot and listening to weather reports makes much higher probability that the hike will be nice and not a nightmare.

The stochasticity says (at least how I perceive it) that the weather reports are very often wrong. Sometimes is hotter, sometimes colder. Sometimes rains less, sometimes more. But overall the average estimation is correct and better than complete randomness.

It is confusing for human brain.

PS. Plot twist why I had the dispute with the guy. He has a child who is precious for him. His parenting is liberal, so that boy has no limits. That child is not behaving nicely to animals. Until the animals are his own, I can not do anything. But once that boy started to molest a cat in my house, I started to tell him how to behave and ofc I was ignored. So one day I told him that in the good old school way... and added that he has to GTFO my house.

Problem is "resolved". That brat is not coming here anymore. Cat is happy. But he complained to his father and his father is torturing me by pretending that I do not understand randomness.

That is life. We like to think that stochastic and random processes are the same at the times when something hurt us in life. Then thinking that something is non-predictable is actually the comfort zone for our mind. It is simply better digested than many things can be predicted, just we were unlucky and either the variance was against us or we were simply dumb with the prediction.

When we like to pretend that everything is random, the life is lighter. We do not feel that we bear the burden of the decision and responsibility. But we always do.