Should I come clean?

[Deano99]

Hi all

I'm starting a football tips website, aimed mainly at the UK and Irish markets.

I am am struggling to come to terms with the fact that I am tipster who makes money when my punters lose, it's a bit of a conflict of interest!

So I am considering devoting a page on my website to explain the affiliation to my followers, coming clean as such, giving my reasons and explaining how it works...etc. Do you think it might be a little off putting to punters? Should we always keep them in the dark a little, or is it better to be upfront about the affiliation?

In order to make it an easier sell I am thinking of just going with one affiliate program, as I can then say to my punters that I want them to use that certain site because it is the best one out there. But am I missing out by joining only one affiliate program?
Furthermore if I were to join only one program, which one is the best from an affiliates perspective (if you could only pick one)?

Grateful for any advice that anyone can give.

Thanks a million
Dean

[lufc]

I can fully understand your feeling but the way I look at it is if people win on my picks but lose on their on bets, there's no conflict but if people are only going to be betting on your tips maybe just work on CPA

[Deano99]

Thanks lufc. Considered CPA, and it's an easier sell to punters if I were to be upfront about the affiliation...but pays way less I would imagine

[lufc]

Yup it does but if you build a list there are plenty of other ways to monetise so you can claw back some of the lost earning.

[xecutable]

We have all gone through this moral dilemma in the beginning. Hell I remember one of my first posts sounded exactly like this 4-5 years ago. So here's the things you should consider:

- You are providing a tipster service. You spend time, our pay people to spend their time to research stats, team news, injured players etc etc, then you make a prediction (forecast).

- Your time & work, deserves to be paid. While your business model is % of losses, in the end of the day you are a promoter that sends punters to quality brands that will take care of them well. You are not sending punters to beat the system. Most of them might not even listen to you or take your tip. Or even if they do, right after the game is over they might place one on their own and still lose.

- Betting is a leisure activity, betting money you can afford to lose, to spice things up. If anyone is trying to make a living out of it and bets mortgage or whatever, there are other institutions that deal with these kinds of problems and all of us link to at least one of those.

- Do alcohol ads and commercials warn you every time that "One in 10 deaths among working-age adults aged 20–64 years are due to excessive alcohol use." How about cigarettes? White bread? Sweets? I mean I can go on and on and on.

Believe it or not there are brands out there (many, plenty) who are willing to cheat their players, rob them from their winnings, screw them over with shady T&Cs. You are simply sending out suggestions. You have looked over the game, you have analyzed it the way you see it. You are giving your readers your point of view, and you are suggesting to take the odds that bookmakerx is giving them.

Whether they listen to you or decide to go with bookmakerx is totally up to them. Last but not least, anyone who offers a tipster site would tell you that the tips conversion is pretty bad. It's more of a user experience thing and engagement rather than a money page itself. This means that most players you are gonna acquire may not even come from tips and might play something totally different not even sports, or sports that you cover.

If I still haven't convinced you, you can always go with exchange markets and win on your players winnings. But again most affiliate webmasters will tell you here that there r no moral conflicts whatsoever.

[F-L-C]

I am not going to go into the moral debate but I would definitely say you need to join more than one affiliate program, otherwise you will have nothing to compare your stats too, some programs convert and retain players better than others

[Syndicate]

When i used to visit a certain Betting shop in Frankfurt - Some Gypsies used to crowd around and ask who i was betting. I remember the Bookmaker laughing when they took him for 50-60K, he pulled me aside and said - keep on giving them tips, i don't care - They win now, but by the end of the day they are begging me for the taxi fare home!

Even if you give profitable tips - The average punter will still find a way to lose - You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink it!!

[Deano99]

Thanks so much for the replies. I had dealt with the moral dilemma in my mind already, mainly along your type of thinking Syndicate! And xecutable your advice has taken the pressure off in terms of being a successful tipster. I always thought that the ability to provide winners could make or break the website, but this has made me look at the bet tips “service” in a different light.

My website is nearing completion and I’m definitely going ahead with the affiliates program (or programS F-L-C, thanks for that), I’m just not sure whether I need to divulge the ins and outs of the affiliation to the users.

I suppose I should pose the question differently– is it a good marketing ploy as an affiliate to lay all my cards out on the table with the users - ie will they respect me more for it and in turn be more likely to sign-up? Or is it better to keep them in the dark just a little?

[Sherlock]

There is indeed a moral dilemma, just the oldschoolers get used to it and make up stories all the time just to feel a good citizen.

Life is a paradox as whole capitalism is. The worst evil are for sure loans, lending economy a dependency on credit, but yet the economy is now based exactly on that (and I am active indirect lender via my bank and direct lender via p2p lending, where I feel even worse than with gambling).

The dilemma is not just about gambling, it is about life. Everybody has like 3 choices:

1. To play the role of good citizen and hope for middleclass job, income and life. Be a hypocrite and let the corporation who you work for to absorb the guilt. Is a person who is a clerk or cleaner in BAE corporation or any military government, which is directly responsible for death of people, less responsible only because he/she is earning less money?

2. To not play the role of good middleclass citizen (or trying not to do it) and then you have to do something amoral either way. The more amoral it is the more money you earn. But you can can use the money to be just a little bit more free than others or you do not have to watch your child or animal dying. The opposite is that you have either the ongoing moral dilemma, which makes you depressed about the worl, or you lie to yourself, which is the beginning of fading away of your personality.

3. You can live under the bridge (shortcut is to commit suicide).

TL;DR
Any try to put there TOS that nobody reads (as points out executable) or to stick with affiliate programs that may CPA or turnover revenue (but who must be profitable as by revenue share), is just the excuse described above. C'mon you asked only to get a collective approval from people that are in the same situation as you and maybe look for the same social approval. Neither TOS nor social approval will wash the guilt out

[Sherlock]

I suppose I should pose the question differently– is it a good marketing ploy as an affiliate to lay all my cards out on the table with the users - ie will they respect me more for it and in turn be more likely to sign-up? Or is it better to keep them in the dark just a little?

No.
This was maybe right years ago. Nowadays even average John Doe knows, you do it from money and that the money come from them. If you point that out in that situation, you would only lose respect from the community, because on the top you would be a weakling.

This kind of behavior means, that the site owner is more concerned about his moral dilemma than about the tips. But the people who are stupid enough to bet on anything and based on other picks, for sure do not want that. They want a confident leader and you are selling an illusion of that leader.

[nwalker]

I wrote an about me page and have described who I am and what I get out of building my site. Very few people visit that page though, but if they do they'll understand where I'm coming from and what they can expect from my site. I'm not trying to hide who I am or behind a we or us, I am me and I want potential players to know it's a real person behind the site.

I want to build trust and to do that I believe you need to treat people how you would hope to be treated and that is with honest and integrity.

I don't think you need to shove it down peoples throat but you can be upfront. Personally I don't believe it's anything to do with morality. It's basic good sense. If you're treating it as a way of dealing with your moral issues then you should pick another sector to affiliate in.

[RacingJim]

I thnk I'd probably NOT come clean about my affiliations. Some people get really stuffy about such things, just do what everyone else does, keep your head down, offer good tips/write-ups and no-one should be complaining!

Affiliation is just simply a way to monetize your site which you put many hours into, so why shouldn't you? Yes it's a potential conflict of interest but if your tips kept losing people would go away anyway!

[wonderpunter]

When you walk into your local bookies does the cashier explain the risks to you before you place the bet? Sure there is some small gambling aware plaque hanging up somewhere, If you have to sweat about what you feel is doing the right thing or not then you are probably in the wrong business..

[Deano99]

When you walk into your local bookies does the cashier explain the risks to you before you place the bet? Sure there is some small gambling aware plaque hanging up somewhere, If you have to sweat about what you feel is doing the right thing or not then you are probably in the wrong business..

You can't really compare a bookies to a tipster, so not sure exactly what you mean wonderpunter.

As I tried to clarify earlier, I'm not so much sweating on a moral issue, but trying to present what I do in the best way for visitors to my website, in a way that maximises profitability.

[wonderpunter]

You can't really compare a bookies to a tipster, so not sure exactly what you mean wonderpunter.

As I tried to clarify earlier, I'm not so much sweating on a moral issue, but trying to present what I do in the best way for visitors to my website, in a way that maximises profitability.

Of course I can compare tipster to a Bookies.. we both deal with the same clients.. and most are smart enough to know that they are gambling.. it's not like you are pushing drugs on a first time user.. These are already gamblers that are looking for tips.. and when they see a bookie you promote they know exactly what it is and what it does.. most of my players are pro bettors.. and some of them take down my accounts for thousands.. now if you ran a "how to bet online site" it might be different.. if you want to maximize profitability and not take place in sin city style business then sell Ebooks, Tips or give it away for free and make adsense revenue.. that way your conscience is clean.. Most gamblers are not vulnerable idiots, plenty make money too the same as not everyone that has a beer is not an alcoholic but shoving a note in front of their face about dying a long death through liver or heart problems wont make a viable business either

[Sherlock]

I agree you can compare professional bettor to a bookie, but professional bettor does not look for tips. He makes them.

[wonderpunter]

I agree you can compare professional bettor to a bookie, but professional bettor does not look for tips. He makes them.

That's a linesmaker.. most pro bettors check the currents on various sites before placing bets along with their experience.. half the time the only reason i make money is because these pro bettors cant leave the online casinos alone after they have won..

[Syndicate]

To some of the above: (successful) Professional gamblers have something in common with Bookmakers, they both aim to make a living from betting. The job of the ''leisure bookmaker'' is to try and stop anyone taking away the profit, they achieve this through ''risk management'' . Most ''real'' professional gamblers wouldn't waste their time with such enterprises, they bet in Asia or on the exchanges, were you are allowed to win!

Ninety percent of bettors are useless, whilst nine percent can probably hold themselves (no mans land) and the other 1% are the ones who make a living from the game (some small - some big). As a professional punter for two decades, i can tell you i'm not interested in checking other websites for tips/picks, but i obviously use data/information.

You can compare gamblers to football players. Ninety percent are amateurs, then their are different categories, such has the semi pro, or the low paid division two player. Those who make a decent living (relative) are based in the premier league, but only a few get to play in the champions league, or at international level.

However, like a top football player - The better you are, the better you are marked!

I always find it interesting to hear people having an opinion about professional betting - Lets be honest, most don't know what they are talking about, so how can they have an opinion on the subject?

[knowyourbets]

The problem I see is that if you are genuine in your tips and want people to win then working on a % of their losses will end up in the failure of your website as all you will accumulate is negative rollovers.

If you are promoting bad tips in the hope that people lose then yes you have a moral dilemma.

To resolve the morality it may be best to promote genuine good tips and disclose your affiliation and that you will receive a CPA, however getting a worthwhile CPA on a sportsbook is difficult to find. If you think this may discourage your users then what about a small subscription and have additional banners on your website to generate additional revenue?

[DanHorvat]

Dean, you ask will customers respect you more - no they won't. They don't give a flying duck about you or your business.

Coming clean and treating your customer as an intelligent human being is the worst thing you can do, in any niche. Your customers aren't here to get a philosophy lesson, but to act on impulse and to get value. Imagine if Sony started explaining their pricing model to customers and apologized the prices aren't cheaper.

Give your customer what he wants. Winning picks. Money in his pocket.

There's an easy way to get around your moral dilemma. You're affiliated with the good bookmakers and you're promoting them because they're good and because they got good odds. A customer doesn't have to place a bet with the bookie you advertised - he can place his bet anywhere. But if he wants you to recommend a bookie...the recommendation is there.

Or you can say which bookies you, as a pro tipster, are using for your own betting. That's no conflict of interest of any kind.

BTW people will still lose, maybe 1% of people will follow your picks and your picks alone. Most will combine your pick with something else, or will change your over 2.5 pick to over 1.5 and get worse value, which will hurt them in the long run. They will still lose even if you got a winning record and a nice yield.