US Prediction Markets Are Exploding: Kalshi, Robinhood, Polymarket & What’s Next for

[themilann]

Everyone should get familiar with these platforms because this is one of the hottest markets in the US, and it will likely trigger even bigger changes than when sports betting was legalized there.

Underdog and PrizePicks (the two largest DFS platforms) have already launched their own versions, and FanDuel and DraftKings (probably Caesars and BetMGM as well) have the same ambitions.

More info here: https://www.sportico.com/business/sp...et-1234858418/


Fun fact: The fact that South Park dedicated an entire episode to this ongoing trend speaks volumes about its growing popularity.

[Ymercury]

Prediction markets are definitely entering a breakout phase in the U.S., and it’s happening much faster than most expected. With Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and now DFS giants jumping in, the line between financial markets and gaming is getting thinner by the day. If FanDuel, DraftKings, and the big casino operators follow, we could see a regulatory scramble similar to or even bigger than the early sports betting wave.

[Pokerface]

I have been following prediction markets for some time, usually around election events. They have proven to be quite accurate in terms of probability. Since I am not a big sports fan I have not really been following however as the markets evolve this will be quite interesting.

[themilann]

Prediction markets are definitely entering a breakout phase in the U.S., and it’s happening much faster than most expected. With Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and now DFS giants jumping in, the line between financial markets and gaming is getting thinner by the day. If FanDuel, DraftKings, and the big casino operators follow, we could see a regulatory scramble similar to or even bigger than the early sports betting wave.

Totally agree on the breakout phase and the “finance x gaming” blur.

What I find interesting is that the tech and UX are already there, it’s really the regulatory framing that will decide who gets the best out of it.


Either way, if FanDuel/DK/Caesars/BMGM decide to lean in with their own versions, the content and SEO demand for this vertical will explode the same way it did post-PASPA. Affiliates who understand both pricing + regulation will have a big edge.

I have been following prediction markets for some time, usually around election events. They have proven to be quite accurate in terms of probability. Since I am not a big sports fan I have not really been following however as the markets evolve this will be quite interesting.

Election markets are actually a gateway for many people in the long run. There are tons of people that don't watch/care about sports, but there is even a bigger number of people who do care about “What’s the probability X wins the election / Y law passes?”

That's why I think prediction markets should be considered as they pertain to the most of the population and they generate lots of media attention.

[themilann]

Here’s a visual breakdown of all the operators that are either preparing to throw their hat into the prediction-market space or are already active in it.

The landscape now includes sportsbooks, DFS brands, sweepstakes platforms, and companies built specifically around prediction markets.

It’ll be interesting to see how the audience responds as this sector grows, given the massive potential upside for both operators and affiliates.


What do you think: will these platforms roll out rev-share deals, CPA, or a mix of both once things go fully regulated?

[ElliotOnlineSlots]

Matchbook is up for launching prediction markets in the UK in January, will be an interesting one to follow. I believe there'll definitely be affiliate programs, I believe they will be closer to financial ones rather than gambling ones in terms of setup though.

[themilann]

Another brick in the “prediction markets go mainstream” wall.


DeFi Rate reports that Crypto.com is set to power High Roller Technologies’ upcoming HighRoller Markets product (framed as online gaming / iCasino). This isn’t a one-off; it's the latest in a series of deals in which Crypto.com supplies the market layer and other brands own the front end.

They’ve already done similar partnerships with:
– Underdog, which started offering sports event contract trading in select states
– Fanatics, via Fanatics Markets using Crypto.com contracts
– MyPrize, which plans to launch MyPrize Markets on the same rails
– Plus integrations into Truth Social and Hollywood.com

Big picture: Crypto.com is quietly becoming a B2B infrastructure provider for prediction markets while DFS, sweeps, iGaming and media brands turn that infra into consumer products.

From a content/SEO perspective, this is going to blur lines even more – we’ll be reviewing “prediction tabs” inside apps we already cover (Underdog, Fanatics, sweeps casinos, maybe full iCasinos), and we’ll have to explain:

– how these markets differ from traditional sports betting,
– what’s on-chain vs off-chain,
– and which state/regulatory regimes each product actually falls under.

Feels like we’re moving from a niche vertical (Kalshi / Polymarket only) to a prediction layer that can sit on top of almost any sports, casino or media brand, which is exactly why it belongs in this thread.

Read more https://defirate.com/news/high-rolle...market-launch/

[themilann]

Quick update on the prediction markets front: two new platforms have just launched in the US.

1. OG (by Crypto.com) -- a new prediction markets app spun out from the Crypto.com / DCM Crypto.com stack. It’s launching around the Super Bowl with markets on MVP, scoring props, novelty props (anthem length, halftime show, etc.), plus politics, finance, crypto, culture and climate. The angle here is: regulated US event contracts with margin trading + social features (leaderboards, following, opinion sharing) and a big acquisition push (up to $500 in rewards for the first million users).

2. Plus500 x Kalshi -- Plus500 has rolled out prediction markets on its US platform via a partnership with Kalshi, using Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated event contracts and Plus500’s own clearing membership. This is positioned more like “event-based contracts” for retail traders (macro, geopolitics, economic indicators) than classic sports-betting style props.

From a content/SEO perspective, this pushes prediction markets even further into a grey zone between trading and gambling:
- we now have “Super Bowl MVP” and “Fed rate decision” sitting inside products that look like trading apps, not sportsbooks;
- affiliate sites will need separate prediction markets sections (with CFTC / derivatives framing) instead of just lumping everything under sports betting or DFS;
- keyword-wise, there’s a new cluster forming around “event contracts / prediction markets / real-time odds apps” that’s going to behave very differently from classic “sportsbook” or “DFS picks” SERPs.

The bigger pattern: we’re moving from a couple of niche players (Kalshi, Polymarket) to a full ecosystem of B2B rails + branded front-ends (Crypto.com, Plus500, DFS brands, fan platforms, even media), all trying to own a slice of prediction markets.

For anyone who wants to follow this vertical more closely, DeFi Rate on LinkedIn is a really solid low-noise source. They’ve been early on most of these launches.

Read more here: https://www.linkedin.com/company/def.../?feedView=all

[invinciblepoker]

I hear ppl losing their $ way faster than via sportsbetting,casinos etc, and losing a lot moooooar.
these trader/"gamblers" are degens.

[TheGooner]

I hear ppl losing their $ way faster than via sportsbetting,casinos etc, and losing a lot moooooar.

I’ve taken a proper look at a few of these so-called prediction markets, and when you strip away the hype, the numbers aren’t flattering.

On most sports events the over-round is very high. Once you convert the prices properly, you’re often looking at something close to a 112% market. By comparison, a decent traditional sportsbook will typically be around 104%, sometimes even lower on big events.

That’s not a small difference. It means the prediction market is running at roughly three times the margin of a top-tier bookmaker.

So yes, in simple terms, you’ll lose your bankroll much faster betting into these trendy, heavily promoted “prediction markets” than you would at a conventional sportsbook, even before you factor in liquidity and execution issues.

Of course, none of this seems to matter much to the target audience. Many users either don’t understand over-round at all, or don’t care.

With enough influencer endorsements, slick UX, and Super Bowl ad spend, these platforms will continue to pull money from players who never stop to ask what the real cost of a bet actually is.

The maths hasn’t changed ... but the marketing wins .

[themilann]

I’ve taken a proper look at a few of these so-called prediction markets, and when you strip away the hype, the numbers aren’t flattering.

On most sports events the over-round is very high. Once you convert the prices properly, you’re often looking at something close to a 112% market. By comparison, a decent traditional sportsbook will typically be around 104%, sometimes even lower on big events.

That’s not a small difference. It means the prediction market is running at roughly three times the margin of a top-tier bookmaker.

So yes, in simple terms, you’ll lose your bankroll much faster betting into these trendy, heavily promoted “prediction markets” than you would at a conventional sportsbook, even before you factor in liquidity and execution issues.

Of course, none of this seems to matter much to the target audience. Many users either don’t understand over-round at all, or don’t care.

With enough influencer endorsements, slick UX, and Super Bowl ad spend, these platforms will continue to pull money from players who never stop to ask what the real cost of a bet actually is.

The maths hasn’t changed ... but the marketing wins .

Yeah, this is where the gap between the marketing story and the math is huge.

A lot of the new “regulated prediction markets” are basically:

• worse pricing than a decent book (what you’re seeing with the 112%+ markets), plus
• extra friction from fees, spreads and low liquidity if you want to get in/out before settlement.

So if you treat them like a sharper version of a sportsbook, you’re dead. You’re paying ~3x the margin you’d see at a good book and often crossing a wide spread. That’s why it feels like people dust their bankrolls faster than on normal sports betting, because they do.

From our side (content / SEO), this is exactly the dilemma:

• the apps are sold as “trading”, “event contracts” and “markets”,
• but for 95% of users the experience is just very expensive betting wrapped in a slick trading UI.

I’m already seeing more search interest for things like “is <platform> rigged / worth it / fees explained”, so I think good affiliates will end up doing more educational content on overround, rake and true cost per trade, not just listing markets and bonuses.

The maths hasn’t changed, like you said. However, if we’re going to send traffic there, we should at least be honest in our reviews that most of these “markets” are priced worse than a half-decent sportsbook.

[themilann]

Another sign that prediction markets are moving from a “hot new product” to a full affiliate vertical.

We’ve been seeing a clear surge in demand for prediction-markets content lately, and now the commercial side is catching up too: affiliate programs and referral mechanics are getting built around these platforms, just like we saw earlier with sweeps/social casino brands before that space started getting hit harder by regulators.

The key issue here is that regulators are starting to push back on sportsbooks that launched their own prediction-market products. DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics may end up having to choose: either offer sports betting under their existing state licenses, or push sports trading / prediction markets separately. I’d assume DFS operators eventually face the same problem.

From a content / SEO / affiliate perspective, that’s what makes this interesting. There’s clearly traffic and curiosity here, but I’d be careful treating prediction markets like some permanently unregulated goldmine. To me, this looks a lot more like early-stage sweeps 2.0 than a stable long-term loophole.

Read more here:
https://defirate.com/news/kentucky-o...s-sportsbooks/

[universal4]

They must choose to earn from betting or betting.

Rick
Universal4

[Magic79]

I have been watching the predictions on Coinbase and yeah I see a lot of money going sideways, but as an affiliate I would like to know what is the best way to get in on affiliate income on any of these.

[JustArt]

Good comparison to 2018 sports betting but the affiliate side is actually harder here. With sports betting you track a deposit clean event, standard CPA or RevShare. With prediction markets users are buying and selling contracts continuously, which breaks every standard affiliate model. Kalshi and Polymarket haven't figured out real affiliate programs yet that's the same gap that existed in sports betting in 2019, and whoever fills it first wins the traffic.