Could each bitcoin be worth $500,000 by 2030?

[The Buzz]

Since bitcoin is always a hot topic here on the GPWA forums (see here, here and here), Buzzy thought this article was intriguing, (and also wants to know if he should hang on to those bitcoins in his wallet).

In a presentation sent to U.K. Business Insider, Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith laid out their case for why they feel it's "reasonable" that each bitcoin could be worth as much as $500,000 by 2030.

Their argument is based on increased interest in bitcoin, thanks to:

1. bitcoin-based remittances
2. Uncertaintly
3. Mobile penetration

It's important to note that a lot could go wrong, too. News surrounding bitcoin has been rather negative as of a late.

China, which is responsible for nearly 100% of trading in bitcoin, has been cracking down on trading. The three biggest exchanges recently announced a 0.2% fee on all transactions, in addition to blocking withdrawals from trading accounts.

Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected two bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and will make a ruling on another one in the future. It's not expected to be approved. However, Smith thinks bitcoin is still in its early stages.

"The SEC’s ruling wasn't a surprise to us," he told Business Insider. "We know that getting this sort of approval is going to take (a potentially long) time," Smith said. "In the meantime, bitcoin is already simple to buy and hold and, as the asset continues to mature, we'll continue to see an increase in the development and deployment of surrounding products."

Here's a link to the entire article: www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-could-be-500000-by-2030-first-snapchat-investor-says-2017-3

Is this in any way a realistic projection?

[Moonlight Cat]

Could each bitcoin be worth $500,000 by 2030?

Yes.

[sweetbet]

Time to start saving some of them up

[TheGooner]

No.

[Top Domains]

No.

Would love to hear why you think not.

[MJM]

If so I'm going to really regret withdrawing mine every month.

[Former Member 14]

Back in 1973 grade 7 (primary school), our teacher reckoned a bar of chocolate (which back then cost $0.60) would cost $19 in 2010. I recall that as clear as day. That didn't happen. So I can't see a single bitcoin being worth $500K. I'm guessing a claim like that would produce a fair wack of traffic though

[Sherlock]

If so I'm going to really regret withdrawing mine every month.

You will for sure. You should regret it even now. Since last June, when bp forced us to switch, price approx doubled.

Back in 1973 grade 7 (primary school), our teacher reckoned a bar of chocolate (which back then cost $0.60) would cost $19 in 2010. I recall that as clear as day. That didn't happen. So I can't see a single bitcoin being worth $500K. I'm guessing a claim like that would produce a fair wack of traffic though

It was the year of hyperinflation and oil shocks. No wonder that middleclass people panicked.

Bitcoin is more like an investment. 1st price of bitcoin is derived from famous pizza, that was bought fro 10,000 BTC. So Bitcoin already went up approx 1,000,000x up. If you look at AMZN it is roughly 1000x up.

To get more 500x up seems to be ambitious, but bitcoin still is something like very well set up startup. To expect 500K in 13 years is not probable, but possible. The most probable price by 2030 is indeed 0 or something very close. But if bitcoin survives and will be used, the price must be very high.

Only the effect of doubling that will most probably double the price each year should set the price estimation to: 1250 x 2^3 = 10,000 USD. But that is the bare minimum (in case btc survives).

If bitcoin will somehow solve and resolve the transaction limit problem (it is not important now, but will be a real problem in 1-3 years), I am confident that the price will shoot up by 2-4x (we can see by Litecoin now that Segwit adoption affects the price in the right way).

Even more importantly: if USA and other satellite states like EU or Canada will continue with monetary restrictions, the more space will be for bitcoin/cryptocurrencies. Let's talk only about gambling. Guys from bettingpartners revealed some data recently. It is not for public, but bitcoin adoption goes very good. Even better than I ever expected. In a very short time we should expect complete switch of US online gambling to btc. NFL action is like 100B/year. NBA and both colllege sports almost the same. (Numbers are including locals.) I can not estimate US casinos. And I do not know how much money must be transferred, because those numbers are betting turnover, not banking turnover. But it is certain that only US gambling is about many billions in and out. If this is a bitcoin market, then only because of that the price will shoot through the roof.

I expect price to be above 10K after next halving (by the end of 2020); 20K+ if US really sucessfully switches to bitcoin online gambling. After that it is a crystal ball.

Everyone here I guess did a stupid business decision. There is a decent chance that the most stupid one is to sell your btc affiliate commissions.

[Progger]

My background info from a big casino is....only 2% use BT to payin and 6% to Payout.

[Sherlock]

I heard much better numbers. Maybe depends on overall GEO of the casino and how hard they push btc. But even the 2/6% are not bad. Those numbers can easily double or tripple each year. Because what I heard is "whoever touches bitcoin, does not switch away".

[hublot]

"whoever touches bitcoin, does not switch away".

This is a good example...if you read the posts in that thread, as soon as the poker players use bitcoin once, they switch over, so much easier for poker in the states.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...index1061.html

[Sherlock]

Yes, I believe threads like those are the real reason why bitcoin is rising. But the bitcoin market still underestmates following:

FYI-I never play anymore so I cashed out the $370 I have left in my account via check

Got hit with $56 in fees ( a $26 "foreign fee" + $20 fee from my bank + a $10 "WU Fee" )

took about 3 weeks for it to hit my account but the net amount did finally clear

With bitcoin one can choose either < 0.1 USD and 3 weeks
Or 0.5-2 USD and few mins to process the transaction for any amount.

Interesting case now is how will develop case of Wells Fargo, which stopped processing wires as intermediary bank from Bitfinex (the biggest USD exchange).

Bumpy road ahead for all funding methods. But bitcoin is the most robust one.

[Progger]

The problem behind BTC + Gambling is the reputation.

Booth are really broken.

And Bitcoin has born some fraud casinos.... google "cloudbet scam"

Regards

[Sherlock]

Google "Bet365 affiliates". Even without "scam". Why I don't trust bet365 any more. How bet365 get free traffic..

Cloudbet is the best btc-only sportsbook. What I see when googling what you say has nothing to do with bitcoin, but with idiot with negative reputation at bitcointalk or another idiot, who does not understand the difference between signup bonus and reward bonus. It is the same as elsewhere.

[WagerJoint]

Price of money is based on supply and demand. Seems that demand for bitcoin will continue to rise but as long as the supply keeps pace then the price should not rise dramatically.

[Sherlock]

The biggest part of supply is the bitcoins from miners. Which will be halved in 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036 and so on. So in 2030 the supply will be probably around 12.5% of recent supply.

Technically the price should go up 8x. But everything after that is about the price elasticity. Which is unknown. 2016 having at least doubled the price and maybe we are still seeing effects of it. 2012 halving probably caused price to shoot up 5-10x.