Advice needed, one of my players winning big

[RacingJim]

I've noticed for the last couple of months one of my sports players who was quite a steady player for about a year has suddenly exploded into life, making really big deposits and so far winning big amounts.

I was looking at my stats for last month, he deposited mid 5 figures and in commission alone he was minus high 4 figures for September. Without this player I would have made mid 4 figures last month but instead made a big loss.

This month he has really exploded, my commission currently stands at minus five figures and getting worse each day. He has made high 5 figures in deposits so far this month alone so there's big money to be made if he does lose.

In one way I like the fact that he is a big player, maybe one day he will lose it all, but on the other hand I've made no money last month and doesn't look like I will this month because of this one player.

I am wondering does anyone have experience of this, it's at a decent program that has no negative carryover but this one player is knocking out all the revenue from everyone else. I've contacted the program also but thought I'd ask advice on here too.

[pinkytoe]

Embrace the variance if you can afford it!

If you are sending a large number of new deposits each month, you could switch out the site he is playing at for the next best alternative to hedge your bets with different operators.

You could also ask the program to de-tag the player from your account I'm sure they would happily take a bigger cut!

The only concern is if he is a pro bettor, he is less likely to lose it, and will eventually get banned if he is too sharp for the book - hence you wont see the commissions ever!

[universal4]

You could ask for ring-fencing if they offer it.

Ring-fencing would remove the player from your regular numbers and treat that single player separate until such time as they play that amount off or not. Not all programs do this, but some do when the loss is more than 10k.

Rick
Universal4

[F-L-C]

After just two months winning hes bound to lose soon

[justbookies]

The only fear is the operator closes his account before he starts losing. He is just having a winning streak but if he is a regular punter he will lose. The only difference between him and anyone else is he bets bigger, hence the distortion of the figures. Bear with it, but I fear the bookmaker won't because they all rush to close accounts.

[JackTenSuited]

Does the program have negative carry over? if not give it a few months and you will be raking it in.
I'm in a similar position but with a program that has neg carry over and looks like it could take a long time to pay off

[pinkytoe]

The only fear is the operator closes his account before he starts losing. He is just having a winning streak but if he is a regular punter he will lose. The only difference between him and anyone else is he bets bigger, hence the distortion of the figures. Bear with it, but I fear the bookmaker won't because they all rush to close accounts.

This is not true.
They will rush to close his account if he is sharp. Bookmakers can establish if he is sharp pretty easily.

Traders regularly analyse their performance on markets and see where they were wrong. If a punter is on these lines consistently, then they they can be sure he is savvy. Sharp punters are very selective and diligent in their bets. They spot the line and bet on it.

A regular punter will bet on loads of markets, throw on accumulators and be very impulsive on their bets of varying sizes.

No bookmaker is closing an account of a guy that is not sharp. They are more likely to offer him free tickets to a horse racing event.

[Casinorep]

I've had similar experiences before and take it from me this is good! It means you have a recurring whale. And like what is already suggested, I would ask your affiliate manager to have that player fenced off so his winnings won't drag down earnings from your other players.

[Sherlock]

it is much better situation than what happened to me now and usually happens with big players and that is that they hit some crazy accumulator bet and all you can hope for is that he will lose what he won... if he deposited XX,XXX it is most probably really whale

well when i was betting i was using exactly this time consuming strategy... playing small amounts on slightly -EV bets and then hitting hard with redeposits, no professional can do this on daily basis for months for sure

if you want to be sure ask AM what he is betting on, when and at which odds and compare it with some line service and you can sleep well afterwards

[justbookies]

This is not true.
They will rush to close his account if he is sharp. Bookmakers can establish if he is sharp pretty easily.

Traders regularly analyse their performance on markets and see where they were wrong. If a punter is on these lines consistently, then they they can be sure he is savvy. Sharp punters are very selective and diligent in their bets. They spot the line and bet on it.

A regular punter will bet on loads of markets, throw on accumulators and be very impulsive on their bets of varying sizes.

No bookmaker is closing an account of a guy that is not sharp. They are more likely to offer him free tickets to a horse racing event.

Sorry I speak from experience. I have had most of my accounts either closed or limited to the extent they can't be used and I dont regard myself as sharp. I am talking about the UK bookies. They close down rubbish punters who bet bigger than most and just go on a winning streak. Some firms are worse than others, but you cant get a bet on with most UK based bookies. There is nothing new in what I am saying, I read complaints about this on a daily basis. I was a bookie for three years so I know how they operate. I even had all my trade lay off accounts closed back then. There is always room for a bookie that will take a proper bet (like pinnacle do, but they are exiting the uk market). All the others in the Uk are recreational bookies only of which I reckon Coral and Bet365 are probably the best for taking slightly bigger bets and closing people slower than the others. However I have read complaints about them too. Unfortunately all the rest limit without thinking. They are accountants not bookies and want millions of little fish not one big one distorting the books, even if he is slightly clueless. I even had one very famous online bookmaker refuse my bet on a football market and change the odds despite not taking the bet. The next day the account was inaccessible and 48 hours later they sent the email stating the account was closed. That was a bookie whose eponymous owner was known to be "fearless" in the ring. I think the biggest risk to RacingJim is them closing the account before the guy inevitably does his brains.

[Sherlock]

I live under impression that this can not be UK bookie from the start, because even the best Uk bookies would limit the player already after 4 or 5 figure deposits and 1-3 winning bets.

Otherwise what you write is true and mess with UK bookies.

[Syndicate]

The player who was losing might have passed on his account to a professional gambler or syndicate,for example,we are currently renting a `platinum account ´provided by someone who lost quite a lot, it´s relatively straightforward to win from these leisure bookmakers if they allow you to bet!

If you can see what he bet do some history searching!

[Sherlock]

interesting, i was thinking about such service, but there is not enough security that the original losing player will pay the huge wins (not to mention it is a breach of TOS and probably law as well)

may i know for how much you rent those accts?

[Syndicate]

You know the proper way is to pay a commission on winnings but this particular person didn´t want that, we agreed GBP1500 per month(wanted 3k), it goes without saying that you need to know of the person and check them out, whilst it won´t last long that´s fine,take the money and run!

Betting through someones account is nothing new,with regards to TOS ------- i don´t think we are going to broadcast the fact !

[Sherlock]

Well you broadcast it here. I guess 99% of this forum hates you after 3 posts. It is pretty gross price yes, but I believe pays off. Thx for answer.

[Syndicate]

With regards to this account i can´t imagine it was set up through an affiliate, the person was easy to check out has he had been involved in the betting business for many years, what can i say, you take what you can!

[edgarf76]

@racing, use this to your advantage no matter what the company works out or doesnt work out with you. I would do a press release, without stating the winners name, the company, just state the specifics about how they won, they can from your review website, and that your review website love to see people win. Congratulate winners publically, I see operators do this all the time, you can do this and brand your review site.

[RacingJim]

The player who was losing might have passed on his account to a professional gambler or syndicate,for example,we are currently renting a `platinum account ´provided by someone who lost quite a lot, it´s relatively straightforward to win from these leisure bookmakers if they allow you to bet!

If you can see what he bet do some history searching!

This did cross my mind, or that it was some kind of sleeper account for a pro gambler trying to get the account a year old and a steady profile before smashing it for a period of time before the bookie notice.

[Syndicate]

Depends on the bookie i guess but most wouldn´t get dragged in by a sleeper,compare it to a bank account, if you kept money in your bank account without touching, i doubt you would get a better credit rating!

I would think losing accounts would be more beneficial to a professional, if you can check out how much he lost in the past it might help you better understand.

Could also be a lucky punter, every dog has his day!

[RacingJim]

He lost a load yesterday, still on negative for the month but that was a big dent in his winnings. Hopefully he'll go on a bad run