Need advice on what to do with statistics issues

[UTG]

Hi there,

I would like to hear your opinions about an issue that I´ve had with a casino that I have tried promoting after LAC. I checked my statistics quickly last month and I noticed that updates were missing for some days in April (more precisely the 3rd, 16-19th, 23rd, 26-28th of April).

During the 21 days that has been reported I had 113 clicks and 38 signups. I first sent an e-mail about the issue on the 23rd of April where I told them that the statistics were missing between the 16-19th of April. I got an reply after a week saying that the statistics had been imported correctly. Later I noticed that there was no statistics updated between the 26-28th of April as well so it felt a bit strange that there was no activity at all (click, signups, depositing customers, change in net rev etc) during 9 days in April. I also noticed that some days were missing in March and May, but not as many as in April.

Average new signups per day in April excluding the missing: 1.8
Average clicks per day in April excluding the missing days: 5.38

I have had signups almost every day in April, except during the 8th of April. After a while the affiliate program admitted that there was a glitch in the reports so they updated the affiliate backend last night. After the new update I can see clicks on most of the days that were missing, but there is 0 signups and no activity.

I feel it is strange that I don’t have any signups during 4 days in a row when the average signup per day was 1.8 before this issue. I have checked the statistics of my website and see that the traffic has not been lower than before. I have also sent roughly the same amount of players as usual to other brands during these days in question.

A friend of mine said that it is very ”convienient” for the affiliate program to say that there was 0 signups and no activity at all during the missing days. It is easier than to admit that the tracking hasn’t been working. It is of course possible that there hasn’t been any activity during those days, since the average number of clicks and signups is pretty low. But is it likely in this case?

I checked every possible report before I sent the first e-mail to my affiliate manager. Yesterday I sent a print screen from one of the reports and said that I have checked other reports as well with the same results. The affiliate manager said that she had seen the statistics in the affiliate dashboard in my account. I check the dashboard every time I log in since that gives an easy overview of what is happening, but I couldn’t see anything. They claim that the statistics has been imported to the affiliate backend and that I would have been able to see it in the dashboard. They admit that there was a glitch in the reports though.

What should I do about it? What can I do about it? I am not sure I can trust a program that doesn’t import the statistics properly. I don’t like that it takes almost 3 weeks for a problem like this being ”solved”, especially considering that the first response was that there was no issues at all.The final response I got was that the glitch in the reports was, that it wasn't showing days with no data.

Am I just overreacting?

[Roulette Zeitung]

"Am I just overreacting?"

No, but...

If you start to write in public, then it's better to call a spade a spade, because a "ghost issue" can't be resolved in public, only with investigations and representatives cooperation, and the representatives must have the chance to write their position in public to build an overall picture.

Otherwise a "ghost issue" ends in speculations, opinions and hearsay, that leads to nothing and does not help anyone.

Leopold

[UTG]

"Am I just overreacting?"

No, but...

If you start to write in public, then it's better to call a spade a spade, because a "ghost issue" can't be resolved in public, only with investigations and representatives cooperation, and the representatives must have the chance to write their position in public to build an overall picture.

Otherwise a "ghost issue" ends in speculations, opinions and hearsay, that leads to nothing and does not help anyone.

Leopold

I understand what you say, but I don't think that it would be fair to write out the brand at this moment. I would like to discuss the principle first. Is their explanation believable? Am I overreacting based on the statistics?

I don't want to out an innocent affiliate program when I only have a feeling that something is wrong.

[Roulette Zeitung]

"I don't think that it would be fair to write out the brand at this moment."
"at this moment"

Obviously you no longer trust the program and don't trust in any representative, because you placed your post in the section "Unethical Behavior Reports". This is a sign that you have made a judgment and seek corroboration.

"A friend of mine said that it is very ”convienient” for the affiliate program to say that there was 0 signups and no activity at all during the missing days."

This is typical hearsay, speculations to confirm your judgment.

"I don't think that it would be fair"

What, if -based on more hearsay and speculations, and nothing else you can expect with a "ghost issue"- you will close your partnership with the program, but in reality you was wrong? Then you have harmed the program. Is this fair?

And you harmed yourself because you have given up a (perhaps) good program. We both know, that only one (on a subconscious level) reason for publishing "ghost issues" exist: Fear of reprisals

I can understand this, because webmasters are outlawed under national law, but if you decide to write in public, then this should a) be the last step and b) not a "ghost issue" based on (prior) hearsay and speculations. Only if both parties have the chance to write, all facts are lying on the table.

What should I do about it? What can I do about it?

You should donate your affiliate manger one more phone call or other conversation. Speak to her. This is more help for your situation than collecting speculations to confirm your doubts and jugdment. Don't forget: An affiliate manager itself is just a human being, too.

...and sometimes machines also.

After you can go to a) ... b)

"I don't want to out an innocent affiliate program when I only have a feeling that something is wrong."

Communication is the key!

Leopold

[UTG]

Thank you for your input, Leopold. I appreciate it and I understand it.

"I don't think that it would be fair to write out the brand at this moment."
"at this moment"

Obviously you no longer trust the program and don't trust in any representative, because you placed your post in the section "Unethical Behavior Reports". This is a sign that you have made a judgment and seek corroboration.

You are right. I am not sure if I can trust the program anymore. I didn't know where to put the post in the forum (the general chatter section doesn't really have threads like this). That is also a reason why I didn't name the brand. Many affiliates see scam-allegations in a subject and keep that in mind, or they might read the first posts without finding out what really happened. I want to avoid situation when I am not 100% sure what has happened.

If more affiliates think otherwise, maybe I will reconsider. I chatted with a couple of affiliates on Skype and they don't think either it would be correct to publish the brand without more information.

We both know, that only one (on a subconscious level) reason for publishing "ghost issues" exist: Fear of reprisals

I can understand this, because webmasters are outlawed under national law, but if you decide to write in public, then this should a) be the last step and b) not a "ghost issue" based on (prior) hearsay and speculations. Only if both parties have the chance to write, all facts are lying on the table.

I am not affraid of any reprisals. However, I don't like public allegations like many people post on various forums. I want to know if other affiliates and operators thinks that this looks suspicious before I name the brand. It is true though as you say, that the "truth" won't appear if both parties can't publish their version of the story and back it up. The affiliate manager has seen this thread so she has the possibility to write in the thread if she wants to.

More communication won't solve anything. They claim that the statistics were available in the dashboard but not in any of the reports. I know I have checked the dashboards without seeing this information. I should have taken a print screen of every possible report.

[Roulette Zeitung]

"I want to know if other affiliates and operators thinks that this looks suspicious before I name the brand."
"before I name the brand"

If hearsay and speculations "confirm" (without knowing all facts), that it is "suspicious", then you will "name the brand".

"I chatted with a couple of affiliates on Skype and they don't think either it would be correct to publish the brand without more information."

And an information pool of hearsay and speculations is the right one?

I don't see any sense in opening a "ghost issue" thread, except...you are using this "ghost issue" as as leverage!

And sorry, but that's exactly, what you are doing:

"The affiliate manager has seen this thread so she has the possibility to write in the thread if she wants to."

Showing her this thread is the only possibility, that it comes to her attention, and there is only one logical reason for it: Leverage

Now the words "before I name the brand" make sense (in a different light).

If this is the way you are communicating with her, then you are on the wrong track, because what do you expect from this?

Escalation?

"she has the possibility to write in the thread"

That's nonsense. Why she should write official under the name of a company into a "ghost thread" if the company name was not written with one word? A professional representative will ignore that, and she could not be reproached for it later.

Sorry, but my understanding of fairness is different. If a person opens a "ghost thread" like this one and is using it as leverage behind the scenes, then he must prove that he has backbone enough to call a spade a spade, because then -and only then- a representative can official reply and the audience can see all facts and is able to form a substantial opinion.

Unless official replies from a representative are not welcome...

Leopold

[UTG]

I am not using this thread as leverage. My intention with this thread is to find out what I should do with a situation that I haven't encountered before. If I would use forum posts as a leverage, I can assure you that I would have more than 13 posts on GPWA after around 7 years in the industry. If my intention was to use GPWA as leverage, wouldn't it be better to name the affiliate program?

If other forum members also think that it is better to start an official thread where they can respond, I will do so or change the title and add more information. I would prefer to just discuss what I can do as an affiliate. What are my options? Your opinion is clear. I believe that a "ghost issue thread" can be a good way to start a discussion about how an affiliate should act in situations like this, what the options are etc.

Maybe this thread was an stupid idea? Feel free to delete it, lock it or do whatever you want with it.

[Roulette Zeitung]

I am not using this thread as leverage.

The affiliate manager has seen this thread

Not through search engine results, because it's impossible ("Ghost issue"). You brought this thread to her attention and have not written it into the "Chatter Box". Whether deliberate or accidental, both things, especially the 1st one, is a leverage.

If my intention was to use GPWA as leverage, wouldn't it be better to name the affiliate program?

If you name the program, then the chance for a fair discussion with both parties exist, and the representative is able to publish more informations, facts, explain the way she see things. If she's right, then it's no leverage. It's a piece of good reputation.

Moreover, the audience is not dependent on hearsay and speculations, and (most times) the truth is coming to light, based on facts or common sense.

Leopold

[grem]

The best thing to do is tell your affiliate friends you trust where if anyone has a problem with a program then to at least share to a network.

As much as it can be helpful to shame the program not everyone wants to do this for fear of attacks.

[TheGooner]

Given the very generic information you've provided the answer is that it's POSSIBLE these are genuine results.

If you are getting "1.8 signups per day" then that is perhaps 1,2,3 on a successful day?
A string of zeros is not unlikely and within normal variation, especially over a holiday period like (say) Easter.

It would depend on your site visitor volume and flow of new visitors as to how long you can maintain a string of days that have signups- as visitor flow will normally vary depending on the day, google serp fluctuations and any new content you've added.

As an example I have a partner where I have averaged around 100 signups per month, and about 40 depositors. I checked my stats for April just now ... and I had a high of 8 players in a day, some 6s and 5s, but also three days with zero. Variation happens.

What stands out for me is the low click rate just 5.4 clicks per day to generate 1.8 signups?
That's just three clicks per signup - and unusually low. Numbers between 20-30 or even 50 clicks per signup are often seen.
Either you have extremely well targeted traffic, or you have some sort of repeat account opener and potential bonus abuse players?

I can see that you've been doing this for four years (join date 2010) so you must have numbers from other programs generated by your site. How do the stats of 1.8 signups per day on 5.3 clicks per day compare to other programs?

Do those numbers jump out or are they "normal" for your site?

You should be able to answer your own question by comparing with past performance of your site(s) at other places.

[p.arena]

0 signups and no activity at all during the missing days.

The 0 signups during those days on it's own is possible since the average was 1.8 it's not a huge drop to have some consecutive days with 0 signups.

However if you are also saying that the previous signups that were active, also all show 0 betting activity on those same days then based on that it does look like there may be some problem in the reporting. Though it is hard to know for sure because as TheGooner pointed out, it is possible that there is 1 person or group of people using the free bets offered on your site and simply stopped for a few days.

[Roulette Zeitung]

Dear reader,


to catch the bubbles, click somewhere and hold the left mouse button to grow your bubble. Watch heart rate monitor. If you see the white rabbit in the background, opening his rosy colored suspenders, then you have reached speculation-level 19 of 20 and a special gift is on the way.

Dear Lady from the unknown program,

with a probability bordering on certainty you are reading this thread, because your webmaster presented you the link ("The affiliate manager has seen this thread").

I don't know if you are right or wrong, if all is only a misinterpretation or if there is more behind, but as long as this thread is a "ghost issue", based on speculations, I make clear, that I don't want to be a part of a speculation bubble and of course not a part of a leverage without knowing all facts, because from my view this is cowardly. Only one side can talk.

There are two sides to every coin, and "ghost issues" are like sack race with open seams.

"Maybe this thread was an stupid idea?"

Yes UTG, because the mental distances between you and your program will be bigger and bigger, and no real solution is in sight, because ...

Advice is not always nice!

And certainly not in "ghost issues".

Don't allow yourself to get too wound up by it. My appeal is that you should contact the Lady again. Take the power of common sense.

If there is no solution in a couple of weeks, then there still remains the possibility of a clean, official thread, where both parties can publish facts.

If both parties wish to do so ... (no excuses) ...

Leopold

[UTG]

Thank you for the feedback! I haven’t received an e-mail notification so I didn’t see the updates until now.
I got a call yesterday from the company and they explained once again what had happened. I accept their explanation since there obviously is a possibility that there hasn’t been any activity during those days when the average signups and casino activity is so low. I still think that it is weird that an affiliate program, which has been online for more than a year, has a glitch that results in no data being uploaded to the reports if there wasn't any activity in the casino or signups. Wouldn’t other affiliates notice this? I like to keep track of clicks and various ratios, especially when it comes to new partners.

Given the very generic information you've provided the answer is that it's POSSIBLE these are genuine results.

If you are getting "1.8 signups per day" then that is perhaps 1,2,3 on a successful day?
A string of zeros is not unlikely and within normal variation, especially over a holiday period like (say) Easter.

It would depend on your site visitor volume and flow of new visitors as to how long you can maintain a string of days that have signups- as visitor flow will normally vary depending on the day, google serp fluctuations and any new content you've added.

As an example I have a partner where I have averaged around 100 signups per month, and about 40 depositors. I checked my stats for April just now ... and I had a high of 8 players in a day, some 6s and 5s, but also three days with zero. Variation happens.

What stands out for me is the low click rate just 5.4 clicks per day to generate 1.8 signups?
That's just three clicks per signup - and unusually low. Numbers between 20-30 or even 50 clicks per signup are often seen.
Either you have extremely well targeted traffic, or you have some sort of repeat account opener and potential bonus abuse players?

I can see that you've been doing this for four years (join date 2010) so you must have numbers from other programs generated by your site. How do the stats of 1.8 signups per day on 5.3 clicks per day compare to other programs?

Do those numbers jump out or are they "normal" for your site?

You should be able to answer your own question by comparing with past performance of your site(s) at other places.

Variation happens indeed. I’ve compared with other casinos on similar positions +/-2 positions and the other casinos has not had similar variations though. It is of course possible, but I haven’t had 0 signups for first 4 consecutive days and later 3 consecutive days in the same month on that position before.

The click to signup ratio was very good. A bit better than average, but the explanation is probably that they didn’t show days when there was 0 signups so the click to signup ratio with my statistics in this thread are based on the days when there was signups. The real click to signup-rate with the updated statistics are obviously lower. I got a good offer to promote (last time I checked it was better than the competitors in the same market) and it’s a brand that hasn’t done much marketing here before so I am not surpriser that the click to signup ratio is good.

It is possible that there has been some bonus users since it was a free spins offer, but I don’t think so. I rarely have that issue and the click to deposit ratio was almost 4% here. The deposit bonus isn’t of the kind that would attract bonus users. Usually affiliate managers inform me quickly if they notice bonus abusing patterns and I haven't heard anything about that from this program.

The 0 signups during those days on it's own is possible since the average was 1.8 it's not a huge drop to have some consecutive days with 0 signups.

However if you are also saying that the previous signups that were active, also all show 0 betting activity on those same days then based on that it does look like there may be some problem in the reporting. Though it is hard to know for sure because as TheGooner pointed out, it is possible that there is 1 person or group of people using the free bets offered on your site and simply stopped for a few days.

There seems to have been 0 betting activity as well, but that’s not so unusal considering I started to promote the brand in the end of February/beginning of March so I have only sent 8 depositing players during 1,5 month before the missing statistics. Based on their activity they don’t seem to be regulars either.

with a probability bordering on certainty you are reading this thread, because your webmaster presented you the link ("The affiliate manager has seen this thread").
Leopold

I told her that I will start an general thread to ask for advice. She later told me that she had seen the thread. That's why I wrote to you that she has seen the thread and have the possibility to write in it. I had no intention of using the thread as leverage but it is obvious that you won't believe me no matter what I write here.

[Roulette Zeitung]

I told her that I will start an general thread to ask for advice

This "general" thread is still a "ghost" thread, and it's even crazier than I thought, because a serious and professional affiliate manager would only reply in an official thread and never in this one.

You told her, that you will start a thread. The company name is not written here. You started the thread into the "Unethical Behavior Reports" instead of the "Chatter Box". Hardheaded, that's a sign of prejudication.

Not without reason. Your confidence has been shaken in the past:

"I stopped promoting them [AFFILIATE LOUNGE] a while ago after various tracking-issues"

Source: https://www.gpwa.org/forum/affiliate...tml#post749892

"tracking-issues"

Now you have the feeling of dejavu, but our senses fail us again and again.

"I got a call yesterday from the company and they explained once again what had happened. I accept their explanation since there obviously is a possibility that there hasn’t been any activity during those days when the average signups and casino activity is so low."

"there obviously is a possibility"

Of course, and you can prove it with simple math. Variations of data and success within 1-100 (real) clicks (e.g. no search engine robots (missing nofollow tag)) can be 90% (and more), 1000-10.000 clicks up to 40%, more then 10.000 clicks, even 1.000.000.000 clicks still have at least 0,1% - 1% variations in data and success. This 0,1% variation nothing and nobody can prevent, and if you calculate 0,1% from a big number ...

"I had no intention of using the thread as leverage"
"no intention"

Even if you have had no intention to use the thread as leverage ... The result is: The thread is a leverage, and your affiliate manager can't reply in a "ghost" thread, because then she's acting unprofessional. Even a accidental damage is a damage.

Put yourself in her position and think over it!

Now you have had (another (?)) call from your program. They don't ignore you. Make the best of it. A neutral outside perspective is impossible in this case with the status quo.

Leopold

[UTG]

Not without reason. Your confidence has been shaken in the past:

"I stopped promoting them [AFFILIATE LOUNGE] a while ago after various tracking-issues"

Source: https://www.gpwa.org/forum/affiliate...tml#post749892

"tracking-issues"

Now you have the feeling of dejavu, but our senses fail us again and again.

You think this thread is a bad idea because your opinion is that it is based on speculations and hearsay. Yet you think it is a good idea to attack me based on your speculations on my intention and how you interpret an old post that I have written.

How is my post about affiliate lounge relevant to this thread? I have proof that they had technical issues at that time that resulted in issues with some of my tracking links to one of their brands (the link redirected to a blank page with no content). My affiliate manager at Affiliate lounge acknowledged the issue and said that they were working on solving it. I can prove this through e-mail correspondence and skype chat.

If you took your time and read through my old post you should have noticed that I also wrote that ”I stopped promoting their brands actively in April 2013 after various issues“. The technical issues was one of the biggest reasons why I stopped promoting them, but there was others as well. Like for instance their Terms & Conditions, how they changed how they practise their terms & conditions, how they didn’t tell affiliates what deductions they did from gross revenue when they calculate net revenue, their lack of affiliate support sometimes etc.

Even if you have had no intention to use the thread as leverage ... The result is: The thread is a leverage, and your affiliate manager can't reply in a "ghost" thread, because then she's acting unprofessional. Even a accidental damage is a damage.

Put yourself in her position and think over it!

Now you have had (another (?)) call from your program. They don't ignore you. Make the best of it. A neutral outside perspective is impossible in this case with the status quo.

Leopold

What damage have I caused the affiliate program? I haven’t mentioned them anywhere in this thread and I haven’t stopped promoting them either. I haven't used the thread as leverage in any way either. Please stop speculating about my intentions when you clearly have no idea of who I am or how I work.

[Roulette Zeitung]

"How is my post about affiliate lounge relevant to this thread?"

A subliminal reason for opening this thread based on your past experience.

Empathy is a natural gift, and I am not always on the webmaster side. There is no doubt, that some affiliate manager are treating webmaster like the last dirt on Earth, but I know enough wonderful people, representatives, working professional and serious for casino programs, who should be protected, and they are real models for the industry.

If you still have not understood, what the problem is and why opening a "ghost issue" the way you did (with her), is the opposite of empathy, then I am sorry about it.

Consciously or unconsciously, you was prejudice from the moment you told her, that you will open in this forum a general thread.

Opening a thread - if a affiliate manager have been told of the existence- should be the last (!) step.

Empathy can help to understand many situations better.

Leopold