Hands up if you....

[TheGooner]

The variable I am looking at most now is really mempool and advance in Layer2 solution for bitcoin. I want to see whether bitcoin is hitting hard or soft limit.

In other words whether at least the 3 digit payments will be economically feasible through bitcoin in 2018 and before Lightning network hopefully comes.

Indeed BTC has become a bit of a white elephant for funds movement with it current costs.

Another thing I consider is if bitcoin crashes, then with high probability crash all or most altcoins and even those are otherwise promising to solve scalability issues.

I agree. BTC is the poster child for crypto. if it crashes then the mainstream market is dead for crpyto ... probably for good.
Alt-coins won't save you from massive price drops.

So the conclusions are:
- I hedge into alts just gently, because if the bitcoin crash comes, then altinvestments crash as well.

This is/was my approach about six months ago. I agree with your final comment so it's not much of a hedge.
The only alt-coins that seems BTC price resistant is XRP (ripple) ... but having ridden from 0.10 to 1.20 i think that's all it's got.

- I do not cash out yet, because I think there is still a plenty of space for institutional investors. I am trying as much information from people from oldschool investment bankers and such as much as possible. I think the big money still have to come yet.

I agree that the big money has not come - but is it coming at all?
We will see in the next 3 months.

Also if I cash out just a small amount, the money is extreme

With large balances I am thinking a 50/50 approach is prudent.
50% cashed into fiat eliminates financial issues.
if the other 50% goes to zero then I can look at my bank balance as a good choice.
if the other 50% stays as it is (between 10K to 20K ) then it's status quo.
if the other 50% goes to the moon then I can happily ride that - while still having local cash.

TL;DR everything is about probabilities. The best way to avoid a disaster is just to be careful and look even for black swans.

hmmm - not sure.

My TL;DR = Cash 50% of it (or enough of it so that the rest doesn't really matter).

[Doolally]

Didn't go near a computer all day - Bliss!!

Merry Christmas Everyone.

[Cash Bonus]

Didn't go near a computer all day - Bliss!!

Merry Christmas Everyone.

I hope you had a good Christmas

[Cash Bonus]

Indeed BTC has become a bit of a white elephant for funds movement with it current costs.


I agree. BTC is the poster child for crypto. if it crashes then the mainstream market is dead for crpyto ... probably for good.
Alt-coins won't save you from massive price drops.


This is/was my approach about six months ago. I agree with your final comment so it's not much of a hedge.
The only alt-coins that seems BTC price resistant is XRP (ripple) ... but having ridden from 0.10 to 1.20 i think that's all it's got.


I agree that the big money has not come - but is it coming at all?
We will see in the next 3 months.


With large balances I am thinking a 50/50 approach is prudent.
50% cashed into fiat eliminates financial issues.
if the other 50% goes to zero then I can look at my bank balance as a good choice.
if the other 50% stays as it is (between 10K to 20K ) then it's status quo.
if the other 50% goes to the moon then I can happily ride that - while still having local cash.


hmmm - not sure.

My TL;DR = Cash 50% of it (or enough of it so that the rest doesn't really matter).

Yes, you're right. It should be in about March of next year. That will be in about 3 months time from now.

Hopefully, we will see it come

[Sherlock]

I agree that the big money has not come - but is it coming at all?
We will see in the next 3 months.

I think (and I am trying to refrain from my wishes, but I am probably not very good at it as every other human) that the money is still waiting. I for example chatted with one private banker who I can not name and who actually is early adopter (he said he lost keys from his 1st coins just a side note). He claimed that b4 the banks did not want to have anything in common with cryptos and now they beg for it and they want to understand.

From signals like this I conclude that the show has yet to come. And I hink it will be over longer span then 3 months. I pray that it will last until northern hemisphere summer 2020 (halving), which will be a relief for the pressure of btc in case bitcoin survives [bottom line: miners must sell most of the bitcoins and they do it at recent high prices, which is the major force pushing price of btc down].

With large balances I am thinking a 50/50 approach is prudent.

I agree. With large balances, especially if there are still some goals in life or need for money, even more than 50% out of crypto is reasonable.
With small balances (and young people), it may pay off to take a higher risk.
But with ultra large balances... that is the painful freedom to do whatever one wants or what the odds dictate.

From probability standpoint and for risk averse person that does not need the money would 50-50 split mean, that that person expects crash with the same probability as growth. And that the crash and growth should have the same depth. Even if I am way off with my estimation of crash and crash probability is higher than 10%, then bitcoin can lose only 15K USD, but it can potentially gain at least few hundreds of thousands. So the odds are in favor of btc/cryptos and there are many fiat-rich rational players who know this and this is another reason why btc has to grow further.

[TheGooner]

Always interesting to share viewpoints Sherlock.
Greatly appreciated.

[Pokerface]

For sure I checked the stats on Christmas day. There is rarely a day that goes by without checking in.

[Cash Bonus]

For sure I checked the stats on Christmas day. There is rarely a day that goes by without checking in.

I'm always checking all of my casino stats. Daily, in fact. It's important to keep up with these sorts of things.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Casino Extreme]

Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts Sherlock ,

You posts about crypto world are more than helpful ,I think more than you think

[Cash Bonus]

Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts Sherlock ,

You posts about crypto world are more than helpful ,I think more than you think

Yeah, Sherlock has a lot of great advice. Very helpful and has great insight into these sorts of things. He's always been right on the money too

[Sherlock]

just an update:
mempool is looking good for now, txs with 50 sat/B will go through this weekend, maybe even lower (time to sweep wallets)
mempool is not clear, but pending fees go constantly down, that is the important thing
XRP incredible pump, so the money will go back to bitcoin at some point... it is just beyond imagination

[Casino Extreme]

@Sherlock ,did you notice the only one which didn't follow the market fall was XPR(in percentages) ?

This makes me think that all others are in a way connected . If they are so independent why would they go down every time BTC drops ?

[Sherlock]

XRP and his younger brother XLM are on Korean fire now.

But long term all cryptos are correlated. This is just selective surge of those 2.

Normally all altcoins follow one each other in short term and bitcoin - as reserve currency - goes against. We saw the spring altcoin pump, where btc was relatively losing. Then BTC was strong and until winter all alts were relatively losing. Now the alts start to have those selective surges. It was IOTA (followed by other DAG coin raiblocks), then ADA, XVG and so on.

But in long term even btc and alts are just one niche market that is extremely connected.

So this is not right.

all others are in a way connected

... they really are all connected and people buy even absolute **** now, when it has crypto label. It is not that far when was published a study that even completely unknown companies which renamed into something connected with crypto had incredible surges on stock markets.

If they are so independent...

They are not. They are less independent as Skoda to VW. They are like Playtech casinos. We know it is almost the same, but marketing must be done. That is why I stay mainly with bitcoin, even when it has its own problems.

[Sherlock]

mempool update:
just realized that the mempool was ****** up by another fork that will distribute coins only to people who moved coins during last few weeks
https://www.ub.com/project/get

[Progger]

mempool update:
just realized that the mempool was ****** up by another fork that will distribute coins only to people who moved coins during last few weeks
https://www.ub.com/project/get

Hm...2017...btc...united ? Really Sherlock

https://i.imgur.com/46h0AZo.jpg

[Sherlock]

the deadline for this airdrop ended like 1 hour ago
i saw just 5 hours ago that they updated the silly rules to the third version, so i was busy to move coins to new wallet and calling friends in the middle of the night

the futures have some value, approx like BTG: https://coinmarketcap.com/zh/currencies/united-bitcoin/ (Chinese version for Progger)

[MMM]

the deadline for this airdrop ended like 1 hour ago
i saw just 5 hours ago that they updated the silly rules to the third version, so i was busy to move coins to new wallet and calling friends in the middle of the night

the futures have some value, approx like BTG: https://coinmarketcap.com/zh/currencies/united-bitcoin/ (Chinese version for Progger)

Edit: Ah, i see now. Why you need to move BTC in order to get them?

[Sherlock]

it is written under the 1st link:

During phase 2, an amount of UBTC, equal to the balance at Bitcoin block 498,777, will be distributed at a 1:1 ratio to eligible addresses that satisfy the following conditions.
(1) did not receive UBTC in the first round; and
(2) had a Bitcoin balance at block 498,777 （approximatrly UTC +0 midnight 12th December 2017）higher than 0.01 BTC; and
(3) had activity (outgoing) between block 494,000 and 501,878 (around 12th November 2017 to 3rd January 201;

[MMM]

no no. I understand. Just mean if you know the reason behind it, cause just don't get the logic behind it.

[Progger]

Sherlock,why u dont open a Btc Info page ? With your know how...put some casino ads on it and let it run..

For a newbie is it not so easy to jump on the train...good resources are rare.


Regards!