Too many winners

[RacingJim]

Bookmakers make money off the book, they take a % of each book by taking bets and laying off liabilities with other bookies/exchanges. As an affiliate you are instead tied into the wins and losses of a limited amount of players that you send.

I understand the issue of negative carryover from a bookies point of view, but from my point of view if I am sending several hundred customers per month to a business through my site, then I want some form of return on that or I'll send the customers elsewhere.

As a bookie I can't fault Bet365 though, they are very competitive on prices, they offer a shedload of in-play markets, they advertise a lot on TV and are trusted. I've made good commissions the last 2 months on them so can't complain, but there is always the worry that your account might fall into a black hole off a few big winners, such a worry is not there with the majority of other bookies.

[-Shay-]

How viable would a hybrid model of sorts be, merging the concept of no negative carryover with that of negative carryovers?

Something along the lines of this :

Affiliate goes into the red earning negative 12K thanks to two very lucky punters. The -12K balance carries over and the next month earns +3K. With negative carryover, the affiliate isn't getting paid. With no negative carryover, the affiliate is banking (obviously).

If the bookie is willing to spread that "makeup" over a period of time (think 6-12 months), this would probably be a winning scenario for the affiliate as well as for them. You could have all negative balances of xx,xxx and higher or whatever fall into this policy. Then, the balance is applied each month in twelve equal installments. So in this case, the affiliate would begin each month at -1K earnings and would be paid out on any balance above 1k he/she earns in that month.

That way, there's no thought of dropping exposure due to a huge hole and at the same time, the affiliate can "put food on the table" whilst continuing to promote a book they believe in.

[justbookies]

If an affiliate has negative numbers with Bet365 recently, it means they're advertising for free and the advertiser took part in the risk of running a bookmaker. That's what you get with negative carryover from a bookmaker's point of view. My rough estimate is that the people who complained in this thread generate at least 5-10 million € turnover in bets combined per year, plus heavy brand exposure on prominent sites, and yet they haven't earned a dime.

That is a very valid point and I agree with you.

[RacingJim]

How viable would a hybrid model of sorts be, merging the concept of no negative carryover with that of negative carryovers?

Something along the lines of this :

Affiliate goes into the red earning negative 12K thanks to two very lucky punters. The -12K balance carries over and the next month earns +3K. With negative carryover, the affiliate isn't getting paid. With no negative carryover, the affiliate is banking (obviously).

If the bookie is willing to spread that "makeup" over a period of time (think 6-12 months), this would probably be a winning scenario for the affiliate as well as for them. You could have all negative balances of xx,xxx and higher or whatever fall into this policy. Then, the balance is applied each month in twelve equal installments. So in this case, the affiliate would begin each month at -1K earnings and would be paid out on any balance above 1k he/she earns in that month.

That way, there's no thought of dropping exposure due to a huge hole and at the same time, the affiliate can "put food on the table" whilst continuing to promote a book they believe in.

Interesting idea. It would certainly be fairer than having to recover a large amount out of a black hole to make some money.

Other idea I have is maybe banding players together, so you have a group of low stakes players, say who don't bet any more than £50-£100 a time, they stay banded together and you make money on the wins and losses of that group.

Then the bigger players are banded together, say £100-£500.

Then the high rollers who bet £500+ per bet.

If you could have them banded together maybe that would help, so if you get one high roller go on a good run it doesn't smash your whole account to bits. Probably a rubbish idea.

[Sherlock]

I understand the issue of negative carryover from a bookies point of view, but from my point of view if I am sending several hundred customers per month to a business through my site, then I want some form of return on that or I'll send the customers elsewhere.

This is exactly the point where non-resetting bookies should understand why they should not drop commissions even when you stop sending players and why the commission should be lifetime.

The continuous promotion rule is more deadly IMO. One can read it also "the more they will punish affiliates for ceasing promotion, the more will be resetting demanded".

Yes, with flat % I would send ppl elsewhere more frequently if they do not bring money and simply waited what will happen. More fair deal IMO.

[ovidiubusi]

in last 2 weeks one of my player won over 20k and im -7k (
this is strange

[CONMEN]

in feb i am -9k from bet365 and on positive figures in other 6 companies! In 8 days in feb i had 7 minus (-) and 1 positive (+).. Minus figures total -9k and the positive figure totals 2.89 euros (two euros and 89 cents)... this is just great!

[CONMEN]

Update: Yesterday my players won 7k so i am -16k in the 10 days of feb..

[Jokerman99]

Ride the variance wave. In the end, B365 won't be allowing any long term winners continue on your account so right now you're just suffering from negative variance.

[michalakis]

Update: Yesterday my players won 7k so i am -16k in the 10 days of feb..

hey conmen, i am just starting out, only have 6 active players but i am already -3K

i am hoping it turns around

will have to sign up a lot more people in order to make sure variance doesnt kick me in the balls

[Jokerman99]

I've had sports accounts -50k several times. It happens. I still make money from those accounts, you just need to wait for your players to lose.

Bet365 have some of the best retention in the business. It should only be a matter of time before your players lose and the more players you have the less you will be subject to variance. Remember their sportsbook works off a 3-5% margin, so you should be expecting to make around 5% of turnover.

[michalakis]

I've had sports accounts -50k several times. It happens. I still make money from those accounts, you just need to wait for your players to lose.

Bet365 have some of the best retention in the business. It should only be a matter of time before your players lose and the more players you have the less you will be subject to variance. Remember their sportsbook works off a 3-5% margin, so you should be expecting to make around 5% of turnover.

holy crap, 50k? how long has it taken to get that back to evens?

[ss106]

From January i had a user on one of my links that everytime when he bet are winning big amounts, i thinked that is just lucky, but he can't be lucky everytime, and always big amounts while almost others are losing he always win.
At every few days or one time at week when he bet i get from -1000 to -2800, always, i have at this link 30-40 active users, and until 2 months ago i had always 3-4000 euro + every month, now always big lose while all other my links have 3-4.000+
What i have to do, i writed to my aff manager and he said that on this link i have sometime even+ and that means that is ok, but i have small + from others, i don't know why bet not check every user to see who is winning everytime, is not an normal thing to win everytime big amounts...

[ss106]

I don't know what i have to do, this stupid cheater make me crazy and nobody from support give me some answer, today again the same expected situation -1700...

[DaftDog]

I don't know what i have to do, this stupid cheater make me crazy and nobody from support give me some answer, today again the same expected situation -1700...

If support has explained to you what is happening there is not much more they can do. We all experience what you are going through sooner or later. Unfortunately for you when a whale goes on a winning streak there is nothing to be done. However, sooner or later, they'll go on a losing streak and then you will be smiling.

I'm having the same story with a certain casino I promote. I was up $2300 in commission on the 27th of Feb then, boom, I was -$1500 on the 28th.

You've got to grin and bare-it I'm afraid. There is no cheating going on.

[RacingJim]

I think that is the way it will be if you promote casinos. I haven't ventured into outright casino promotion yet but it's something I want to do, but I assume bigger players with bigger swings up and down.

Sports betting is more safe in that respect in that I send a high volume of customers who will typically gamble less than £200 a bet, so there are less large swings and typically a gradual accumulation each month.

Pros and cons of both of course, massive pros for casino is if you get a big whale who loses £50k

[ss106]

I not say anything if the users that lose are even wining, but i have now almost 2 months when this new user start to win huge amounts and never lose anything, just wining everytime, i have wait to lose atleast one time but nothing just loses for me.
Is not from casino, is from sports bet's

[RacingJim]

I not say anything if the users that lose are even wining, but i have now almost 2 months when this new user start to win huge amounts and never lose anything, just wining everytime, i have wait to lose atleast one time but nothing just loses for me.
Is not from casino, is from sports bet's

Ah right sorry for assuming that! I have a few sports betting 'whales' also and I guess if you haven't got large amounts of signups then one of those could skew your account more easily. I know how it feels though as I was in the same position a few months back. The only solution is to keep sending signups in my case anyway it worked.

[Sherlock]

I was down even 100K and then profit came. I hope nobody listens to this whinging. Few years ago, when Bet365 was not that awesome as by now, they were called Bet 3.65, because it was internal joke that the 3.65 was the maximum stake they accepted.

If you do not want to promote bookie that allows big winners and losers, simply go somewhere else, best apply for CPA. You will make just fraction of the money that you can make otherwise, but after all it is your decision.

[ss106]

I don't understand why people like you answer without reading first, this is a user that win huge amounts from 2 months all the time and he NEVER lose.
I have nothing with users that win but even lose sometime.
If you had -100k that means that you have months even with +50-100k