Too many winners

[Sherlock]

No, the player generated my loss over 3 months, then he lost everything in less than 2 weeks. Less extreme cases happen every now and then. You live in your own world. It is simply common to have winning and losing strikes. Common betting strategy is raise the stake after loss. Exactly this is the way how the strikes happen.

To make it simple example (in reality any variance of this can happen). Assume odds 1:1 and winning probability 50%. Player wants to win some amount, let's say 100.
In the day one the player bets 100. If he wins, he quits, is happy with the win.
If he loses, he bets 200. In case he wins, he quits again with the profit of 100.
If he loses the 200, he bets 400, then 800, then 1600, then 3200 etc.

Now the question. What is the probability that he will make the 100 in one particular day? Depends on turns he wants to raise the stake and the probability is 1-(1/2^N) or something like that, where N is the amount of turns. The amount of turns is limited by max. stake obviously.

So it is really silly accusation, because the player did not even win one full maxbet at the given sportsbook (which is I assume 10K+ for EPL).

If they let him play, they know why. Stop accusing me that I do not read your post. Stop accusing some stupid gambler being cheater and stop suspecting Bet365. There is a lot of **** around, but this is not the one. You simply have no experience of variation. Yes, it looks weird. Every affiliate saw this or will see in future.

[ss106]

My aff manager said that he will look closer with the account department at this situation, so, i'm waiting his answer.
I not suspect bet of anything, you answer again without reading, and for sure you talk without knowing the situation. I'm not working with bet from yesterday and i heard how some people from East europe are cheating bet and they pay them, so, is not imposible this as at some small events some people know the result of the game before the game start as the game is aranged in advanced

[Sherlock]

lol

[chl888]

My aff manager said that he will look closer with the account department at this situation, so, i'm waiting his answer.
I not suspect bet of anything, you answer again without reading, and for sure you talk without knowing the situation. I'm not working with bet from yesterday and i heard how some people from East europe are cheating bet and they pay them, so, is not imposible this as at some small events some people know the result of the game before the game start as the game is aranged in advanced

In fact, you have done better job than most of us! I would like to know , how long does it take you to get 40s players in just one link?

[Stephen_A]

Hi all,

Thanks for your contributions to this thread. I just wanted to let you know that if you have any concerns about your affiliate stats or anything that you want to discuss regarding your account then bet365 are always happy to help. Just send an email to your Affiliates Manager and we can then look into the situation and discuss it with you.

Many thanks,

Steve

Stephen Appleton
Affiliates Manager
stephen.appleton@bet365.com
bet365.com

[RacingJim]

I don't understand why people like you answer without reading first, this is a user that win huge amounts from 2 months all the time and he NEVER lose.
I have nothing with users that win but even lose sometime.
If you had -100k that means that you have months even with +50-100k

How do you know it's one user?

Bet365 does not let you go into player-level stats so you are making a big assumption there? Unless you only have a handful of players in which case, send more players.

[ss106]

Is never happent until 2 months ago like this, and when happen this i have always huge negative and huge turnover, and huge deposit, from just 30 players while, in the same day all other links have +
In days when this user is betting i have for example 2 days ago 40.000 (i had days with even more than 100.000 turnover) turnover fom this link with just 30 users and from other links (one cca 100 users, another 20, another 30, etc, i have less than 7-8.000 turnover from all of those users (160-180)
In days when this user is not online all on this link are like other links, normal.
Can't be that any other link give me + and - and only this started from 2 months give me just in some days huge negative, and other days everything ok, a bit of + or -

Stephen, i already writed you and i'm waiting your answer. Thanks!

[ss106]

Today he finally losed for the first time, 28500 deposit for yesterday on his link, 88700 turnover, +4300.

[Arild]

I have been affiliated with 365 for 2 years now.. never cashed out anything.. players keep winning and winning...

[DanHorvat]

Results yesterday:

Chelsea-Norwich 0-0
Levante-Atletico 2-0
Real-Valencia 2-2
Sevilla-Villareal 0-0

Whoever placed a bet on Sunday, probably lost as these were the four most popular selections. It was one of those days which happen maybe once a year.

But apparently my Bet365 players managed to win some 800 € regardlessly. To hell with Bet365. Yesterday my numbers went up on ALL other affiliate programs, but not Bet365. And it's been like that for over a year now.

Strange thing is, Bet365 is a recreational bookie. And they keep justifying themselves by "big winners". Yeah if you were Pinnacle I'd buy it.

[RacingJim]

Results yesterday:

Chelsea-Norwich 0-0
Levante-Atletico 2-0
Real-Valencia 2-2
Sevilla-Villareal 0-0

Whoever placed a bet on Sunday, probably lost as these were the four most popular selections. It was one of those days which happen maybe once a year.

But apparently my Bet365 players managed to win some 800 € regardlessly. To hell with Bet365. Yesterday my numbers went up on ALL other affiliate programs, but not Bet365. And it's been like that for over a year now.

Strange thing is, Bet365 is a recreational bookie. And they keep justifying themselves by "big winners". Yeah if you were Pinnacle I'd buy it.

One of my best days ever on Bet365 yesterday, not rubbing it in, just trying to provide some balance. they were a great set of results and the customers I send are primarily UK sports betting customers, so I'd assume that is why I had a good day.

It's happened other days though where I've thought the results had gone my way but I still made no money, swings and roundabouts maybe?

At bet365 you can't look into it, but when it's happened at Betfred/Coral etc, you look into the stats and it quite often is one big winner who's had an accumulator come in or a big casino win.

[Jokerman99]

Likewise actually had my biggest day ever with Bet365 yesterday in all my time in the industry, so as has been said before, it's just variance.

[blendtec]

0:0 correct score is a very popular bet regardless of the teams/odds.

I have noticed massive negatives on days where there have been plenty of upsets but it is what it is, I trust them and for me they are the best company to promote by miles.

[DanHorvat]

No, they're not, because of the negative carryover, otherwise everything would be fine.

A proper affiliate program has both CPA and turnover % deals, B365 doesn't offer those as far as I know. So while they're the top bookie in the world at the moment, they're definitely not the top aff program.

If there was a turnover % deal with B365 I'd be making loads of money, and that's why they don't offer such a deal. Revenue share with negative carryover is much more effective, a perfect deal for a bookie as the risk is zero.

I hope your numbers will stay up (I had some huge months with B365) but if they start going down the drain there's no help. My account is 26.000 euros in negative.

[Jokerman99]

No, they're not, because of the negative carryover, otherwise everything would be fine.

A proper affiliate program has both CPA and turnover % deals, B365 doesn't offer those as far as I know. So while they're the top bookie in the world at the moment, they're definitely not the top aff program.

If there was a turnover % deal with B365 I'd be making loads of money, and that's why they don't offer such a deal. Revenue share with negative carryover is much more effective, a perfect deal for a bookie as the risk is zero.

I hope your numbers will stay up (I had some huge months with B365) but if they start going down the drain there's no help. My account is 26.000 euros in negative.

You should have prefaced that with "in my opinion". I've sent tons of action to Pinnacle and SBOBet and never made a dime on turnover based commission. So I would disagree with you with regards to your comment on what makes a "proper" affiliate program.

Bet365 have incredible retention, good crossover, the highest (by far) player value for me of any non-US sportsbook, excellent affiliate managers, fast payments to affiliates and players, and are totally legit and trustworthy. All of those things are pretty hard to find in this industry. See the recent Stan james debacle for a perfect example of the other end of the scale.

Bet365 runs something like a 3-5% margin on their book, so they expect to make 3-5% of players turnover. I'm not sure why you think a bookie should have to accept risk in their affiliate program. When we all signed up we knew they have neg carryover, noone likes it but they are open about it and don't hide the fact. At the end of the day, you can always stop promoting them.

And you could also reach out to your AM. I have heard of large neg balances being removed from accounts though i've no idea if that actually happens or not.

One of the unfortunate things about the gambling industry is variance. I've been down more than 20k on 5dimes numerous times and have made it all back plus interest. Ride the wave

[RacingJim]

No, they're not, because of the negative carryover, otherwise everything would be fine.

A proper affiliate program has both CPA and turnover % deals, B365 doesn't offer those as far as I know. So while they're the top bookie in the world at the moment, they're definitely not the top aff program.

If there was a turnover % deal with B365 I'd be making loads of money, and that's why they don't offer such a deal. Revenue share with negative carryover is much more effective, a perfect deal for a bookie as the risk is zero.

I hope your numbers will stay up (I had some huge months with B365) but if they start going down the drain there's no help. My account is 26.000 euros in negative.

It would be interesting for me to know what your customer numbers are roughly. 26,000 euros is one big hole to be in I agree.

[comparepandauk]

Thanks to all of you for sharing ideas and pros and cons about Bet365 we should take care of it. Thanks a lot

[DanHorvat]

Jokerman, your points are all valid but let's not mix pears and apples. While Bet365 has great retention as a brand, good AMs, player value, live streaming etc. and is in general "the best", I was talking about the affiliate program here. The T&C, the deal we signed. Affiliate programs with negative carryover are one step from being outright frauds, in my opinion and I guess the general opinion in this industry.

It's all good when your numbers are positive and I hope yours will stay that way. Mine didn't, and that's what you get with neg carryover.

The AMs didn't help in any way. They didn't remove the winning player(s), they didn't reset the balance, they didn't let me open a new aff account. They only suggested I promote bingo and games more, as that's the only positive part of my account.

I got a monthly turnover of around 1 million, so if I had a 0.4% turnover deal I'd be making 4 grand a month if my math is correct and if the Sports Turnover column in the stats means what I think it means. And that's the difference made by the small fact that RS with neg carryover is the only way to be affiliated with B365. Kind of a big deal, I've been working on this partnership for years, and I suppose B365 is happy with their turnover as a company being slightly bigger due to my work when they present the balance sheet to the shareholders, yet I'm earning 0.

I'm not asking for resolution of this matter, I'll deal with it in my own way, I just want to put my case out in the open for the rest of you. Beware the neg carryover even if it's the best brand.

[RacingJim]

I got a monthly turnover of around 1 million, so if I had a 0.4% turnover deal I'd be making 4 grand a month if my math is correct and if the Sports Turnover column in the stats means what I think it means. And that's the difference made by the small fact that RS with neg carryover is the only way to be affiliated with B365.

I agree it would be better if they offered different deals e.g. CPA/rev share hybrid or MRG deals but I don't think they do, but I would guess if you are on £1m turnover each month that you should pull yourself out of that £26k hole within a month or two.

I guess it all depends on what is the makeup of the turnover and how many total customers you have playing and depositing each month, how many new customers you are bringing and what type of customers they are.

I agree though, if Bet365 went 'no negative carryover' it would make things a whole lot easier obviously, it would help me sleep better at night knowing my best program isn't gona go down the drain if I have a bad run.

[TheGooner]

I got a monthly turnover of around 1 million, so if I had a 0.4% turnover deal I'd be making 4 grand a month if my math is correct and if the Sports Turnover column in the stats means what I think it means.

Your maths are correct and the turnover does mean what you think it does.

However, I know you are a smart operator, and I'm struggling to see why you think an offer of 0.4% of turnover is a better return than a 30% profit share of 3-5% edge as that equates to somewhere between 1.0-1.6% of turnover in the long term. I just did a run over our Bet365 stats in the last 24 months - our turnover is within the ballpark of yours - and have found that even with two negative months our rev-share is around 3.5x what a 0.4% turnover deal would bring.

I am in a similar situation to you at Pinnacle - four negative months in a row - but when I do that maths my overall rewards are actually still running at about 5.5x what a 0.4% turnover deal would bring.

Affiliate programs with negative carryover are one step from being outright frauds, in my opinion and I guess the general opinion in this industry.

It might be the "general opinion" of some affiliates but frankly it's incorrect. Rev-share with negative carryover is actually a payment system that produces the highest possible rewards for affiliates that generate profitable traffic. It provides a clear reward incentive for affiliates with zero subsidisation for affiliates not bringing in profits.

Other systems like CPA, turnover-share, and rev-share with no negative carryover, all carry potential risk for the program - risk that they are over-paying non-performing traffic - and so the total rewards are paid out at a far lower value overall (as demonstrated above) to minimise risk to the program of financial failure in the event of an extended non-profitable run.

Affiliates are not paid "By-the-hour" or for time worked. If you want that surety of income then go and work for someone as a writer or as a SEO expert or site manager, instead of running your own site. Affiliate sites are by their nature commission sales based. You get a share of the profits. No profits - no payout - that's the deal.

The AMs didn't help in any way. They didn't remove the winning player(s), they didn't reset the balance, they didn't let me open a new aff account.

That being said - I do understand your frustration given the turnover your are producing and that you are clearly an effective generator of traffic. But if your traffic was profitable in the past - it will be again - and I believe that if you do the maths it will be far more lucrative than a 0.4% turnover share.