Will quantum computing disrupt current public key encryption systems by 2030?

[MichaelCorfman]

From time to time I have wondered whether quantum computers will be created that will break current encryption systems ever, or anytime soon. Most recently, with the current crash of bitcoin to below USD $4,000, I've noticed some renewed activity in a poll I started a year and a half ago here: What are the odds bitcoins will be worth nothing in 2030?.

In that post I raised the quantum computing question as follows:

I, for one, have wondered about the future of public key encryption systems, which play a central role in modern security, and in bitcoins and every other cryptocurrency. What happens, for example, if quantum computers become reality, and if they really can easily solve the the integer factorization problem whose current difficulty of solution is the foundation of bitcoin?

I decided to research the quantum computing question a little more. In the process I found an interesting article on the topic:

Quantum Computing and Cryptography.

So, for this week's poll I ask what you think is the liklihood that quantum computing will disrupt current public key encryption systems by the year 2030?

Besides voting in the poll, share your longer-terms view about whether quantum computing will eventually disrupt current encryption systems, and whether cryptographic technology will evolve in a way that successfully counters any inroads by through quantum computing.

Michael

[Synthetic]

China already have quantum computers and its not a secret that they have sent the one in the space with they space rocket program... So 2030 is even later. It's already in action but still not used so global for many reasons!

[Cash Bonus]

Yes, I believe it will. I saw this one on the news just the other day in which they said that this was very likely to happen by the year 2030 and the Chinese spoke at length about the subject.

China is currently expanding on its quantum communications network.

Here's the link regarding that:

http://www.atimes.com/article/china-...tions-network/

[universal4]

I am not sure the entire direction quantum computing will go, but I would rather see it used more for medical research then used at the defense department. Which sector do you think will earn more funding whether secretly or not.

As for the encryption systems being disrupted, I certainly think that will happen. It is a challenge, and I don't think there has been a computing challenge yet, that has not been either conquered, or at least is being attempted, which almost always translates to a matter of time.

Rick
Universal4

[DaftDog]

I believe that large scale functional quantum computing will be a reality a lot sooner than later, however it will be many decades before you'll have a quantum laptop or pc at home.

With regard to cryptography I believe that current formats may be easily cracked by a quantum computer but cryptography will evolve to meet this challenge. Totally secure communication will finally become a reality too.

[eenzoo]

Quantum what ...?

[AussieDave]

@Micheal - interesting article, thanks for posting. However, at a tad after 7am, it's too early to try and absorb it. I'll give it a try later on!